RE: A time to buy17 Aug 2025 18:07
Once again a good post from Haywain is driven down the board, so here ir is again:
When people say Hemogenyx is still “years away from any meaningful deal,” they’re ignoring the unique position r/r AML is in. Unlike lymphoma or ALL, where CAR-T already has several players, no CAR-T has ever succeeded in AML — which means the first therapy to show deep and durable remissions carries huge scarcity value. The prognosis for r/r AML is catastrophic, with median survival often just 2–4 months without a transplant, so even a handful of patients living well beyond that is a clear efficacy signal. That’s exactly what Hemo have already achieved, with one patient past 6 months and another at 3.5 months post-treatment, both without HSCT or follow-up therapy, and the FDA’s decision to extend into paediatrics after only two adult patients shows how strong the benefit–risk already looks.
Pharma doesn’t wait for Phase 3 in situations like this — the history of CAR-T shows big money deals being done early. Novartis licensed Kymriah after only around a dozen patients, Janssen partnered Legend early and Juno and Kite were both acquired in multibillion-dollar deals while still in early Phase 1/2. The reason is simple: the first mover in a new indication often takes the lion’s share of the market, and waiting risks losing the asset to a competitor.
In AML specifically, several big players are heavily exposed. Jazz depends on Vyxeos, BMS on Onureg, and both Astellas and Novartis have FLT3 inhibitors which could be rendered obsolete by a curative FLT3 CAR-T. If hemo continues to show durable complete remissions, companies like Jazz, BMS, Astellas, or Novartis can’t afford to sit back — the strategic risk of inaction is greater than the financial risk of moving early. That’s why this is not “years away.” If anything, it’s the kind of dataset that could trigger licensing discussions after the first cohort, with full acquisition firmly on the table as more patients confirm the trend.