RE: Helpful4 Aug 2022 17:48
Janica, why do you feel the need to prove you don't understand anything?
If you watched that video from yesterday you would understand the analysis or if you looked at some of the tweets from commentators on OPEC.
There is no spare capacity, it is a fantasy. The oil price is down because Biden is pumping out of the SPR and people think a recession is coming and it will curb oil demand.
Pumping from SPR is a one off, it can't be repeated. Once it has been used that is the end of it.
Demand has not fully recovered in the West, the Airlines are not back on full blob and China is still in a partial lockdown. That extra demand is 2.5mil/3.5mil barrels a day. The supply doesn't exist, the demand can only be met by drawing down on stocks: that has been happening, it can't continue for very long.
On top of that the trend increase in demand (outside of exogenous shocks) is 2.5mil/3mil pa. The normal decline is about 9% pa. If we take current supply to be 100 mil BOPD, we lose 9mil bopd because of decline, we add about 2.5mil bopd of trend: it means we need to add about 11.5mil bopd of replacement supply: it is not happening. Saudi and Kuwait have said that they can bring a large field online in 2027 that will take Saudi to 13mil bopd but the field is mainly gas.
On a two year view, we are now looking at $300 oil. Over the next few months it goes back to $120+ and then it depends how things go but the stocks can't be used twice and they are not getting refilled at current supply levels.
DYOR