RE: Helpful4 Aug 2022 14:38
You see Billy this is part of the problem. Investors like you think they know everything when they don't. The video is 3.5 hours long or so. It goes through in some detail (all backed by evidence and links to the evidence) what is happening in the oil market. By "in the oil market" he covers such things as availability of fracking crews, their cost and their efficiency in the different fields in the US. He covers the same with drill crews and the shortage of rigs and drill crews. He covers the effect that the shortage of the crews and how the reduced marginal efficiency has an effect on the the success of drilling results and how the yield from the fields has been moving over over time. He goes through the decline rates of the different fields by year of drilling and shows that the results from the drilling and fracking have been reducing over time.
Note this is not my video, it is just a source of analysis and information. Because I know I don't know everything, I am quite happy to spend 3.5 hours listening to someone who has done deep research on the subject matter and listen to his evidence and analysis.
Having listened to him and thought about it. it is possible to come to some reasonable conclusions.
You, because you haven't listened to the video, won't understand the analysis because you have not been exposed to it and therefore won't understand any of the conclusions.
Bottom line, is that the ability of the US to increase and maintain its oil output is seriously at risk. Even if the US spent the necessary capital, the marginal returns are reducing.
One conclusion is that the potential big fields in Africa will become more important.
Another conclusion, (mine not ML's) is that new drilling will become riskier and more expensive in the US. Hence, the comment about workovers. You would understand the comment had you watched the video but like all experts who already know everything there is to know, there is no need for you to access new information or new analysis.
DYOR
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