Member Info for HelloSanDiego

I don't think there are any specific voting rights at 25%.

It takes 75% of the vote to pass a special resolution. That means a shareholder with 25% or more can block any special resolution.

Day trader ramps and lowering averages are straighforward (albeit debatable) and although some of us are unclear on the specifics of nominee accounts, in this case I don't think it has much consequence. Most of us are clear that institutions are holding 22.5%. Feel free to chime in with any corrections or if I've missed anything. Thanks.

trytosmile - "If as you say they stopped buying in the high 20's does that emply anything above will be sold into?"

That's one possibility. Another is that they're waiting for it to drop to that level again and will then resume buying. I think it's likely they'll keep buying until they're just below the 30% threshold.

Woodstock1970 - "I wouldn't throw good money at this stage ."

That's not really an answer. The question was, since they already owned 18% of the company, is there any way they could increase to 22.5% and make money by trading it?

If we get anothere RNS from them this week or next, I think that settles it anyway, one way or another.

Woodstock1970 - "We have to be aware that Polygon might be trading their position."

But how could they profit from it? The price has been falling since 10am Monday. If we get an RNS to say they're reducing, that strategy would be revealed. So wouldn't the price collapse, leaving them with over thirty million shares worth pennies each?

Davethedumplin - "you forgot 70 percent down on their investment"

...and improving by the minute.

Davethedumpling - "look at where that superior insight has got them so far"

Prestigious London address - Check
£1bn+ hedge fund - Check
Premium Membership on LSE - ooh, so close

Davethedumplin - "But, Polygon buying should not be seen as them knowing something others don't - lessons not fully learnt from Monday I fear!"

Take a look at my post below. There's no doubt they know things we don't.

Not inside information, obviously. But they'll have better research, analysis and expert opinions, not to mention the knowledge of how much they are willing to back this financially, and how it fits in with the rest of their portfolio.

B2HS2L - "How come the Tr1 has been released before lunch"

I wondered that. But I suspect I misinterpreted when the deadlines were. I know they've got two business days from when they pass the 1% threshold. But I can't remember if that's midnight immediately before they pass it, or the one immediately after.

If it's the former, I think that would mean they issued it at around the latest possible point.

MrCosts - "Polygon will know as much as we do..."

Not really. Polygon has experts and analysts who will understand the data and trial procedures better than us. They'll also have access to better research, e.g. what is actually going on inside the hospitals where trials are being conducted.

In addition, they'll have a better understanding of the pharmaceutical industry and the respiratory drug market.

I called this on Monday, so I'm feeling pretty smug right now. The implications are pretty astounding.

This company already formed around 7% of its £1bn portfolio last week (though that's based on the fund's 2019 value, iirc). But I think the chance of Polygon making a takeover offer of close to a pound are unlikely, given the high risk. So I think it suggests they expect to see the drug through further trials, which in turn suggests they expect those trials to happen.

As always, verify that yourself before making your own opinions. I only know what I'm talking about almost half the time.

No. They wouldn't be buying if they'd seen results that haven't been made public.

Manifesto - "Do some research on trial protocol..."

I have done. So I was already aware of everything you wrote and I'm not sure what point you were trying to make.

Without the best known treatment (i.e. corticosteroids), everyone in the trial gets either: a) an unproven drug or, b) a placebo (i.e. no medication at all). These are hospitalized patients, so that's not an option.

So I think it's one of those situations where it wasn't spelled out to us anywhere because it's so bloody obvious.

HelloSanDiego - "No, we're sure it WAS. That's normal procedure, as per the NHS page I linked to."

Sorry, my mistake. Forget that. I was under the impression SOC typically meant the trial drug plus whatever drug is known to work, and I thought that linked proved it. But I see that it doesn't.

I still think SOC+trial drug is the normal procedure. But that link doesn't prove that.

Ndn71 - "Are we sure SNG001 wasn’t administered in addition to steroids in some cases?"

No, we're sure it WAS. That's normal procedure, as per the NHS page I linked to.

If you take part in a clinical trial, you'll usually be randomly assigned to either the:

treatment group – where you'll be given the treatment being assessed, or
control group – where you'll be given an existing standard treatment, or a placebo if no proven standard treatment exists

https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/clinical-trials/

So they just followed the normal procedure.

I was disappointed by yesterday's results. But what's really bothering me today is that I keep getting different values than quoted for OR and RRR. Half of mine are right. The other half aren't.

For example, for 'Progression to severe disease or death within 35 days' in the PP group, isn't it (20/32)/(236/229) ˜ 0.61? But the results show 0.63. Obviously it's my error. But can anyone shed any light on where I'm going wrong?

ShearClass - "SNG has £25m cash + ~£5m in pending R&D tax credits means the current enterprise value is around £20m"

Eh?

Is Phase 3 guaranteed to go ahead?

cmww2014

You're right, they've got up to two trading days to notify. I thought it had to be done as soon as was practical.

https://www.handbook.fca.org.uk/handbook/DTR/5/8.html