Member Info for HedgeHogarth

Seed is not the only small cap sitting well below NAV. Of course he is accountable as CEO, but not sure he's responsible for the decline. I happen to agree that this stock is significantly undervalued - anyone buying at these levels will be handsomely rewarded in time.

Many small Caps will need to raise in the next 18mths - Seed wont

So in terms of an investment - the worst is behind us

Wow - traders working hard to keep the SP down...

Seed have cash - a great time to have cash and buy. Many small companies having to dilute up to 80% to raise in this market. They have lots of choice - including buying their own shares at a big discount to NAV

I have no doubt that Seed with get a bargain

Vindication

noun

the action of clearing someone of blame or suspicion.

"I intend to work to ensure my full vindication"

proof that someone or something is right, reasonable, or justified.

"the results were interpreted as vindication of the company's policy"

Mr India has shown his hand again? ;-)

Not sure why he is talking about 2.5p and 3p as targets for long term holders - they sound more light targets of a trader

All the long term holders I know put a much higher value on this stock; for me the only relevance of 2.5p is the placing price does anchor the share price in the short term.

However, with the right progress in CAR-T or CBR, as a LTH, something between 5 and 10p is my target.

10p is a realistic target in the next 12mth - if Hemo secure non dilutive funding through a partner

Something in the 5-7p range more realistic if they have to raise in the 1st half of 2024.

All valuations above 3p though are dependent on (1) removing CH. Getting in the 5p to 10p range probably need encouraging Ph 1 Car-T results and/or another compelling CBR update following In Vivo tests on all hose horrible viruses

All my opinion - not trying to be rampy. Just sharing my personal aspirations as a LTH.

Maybe Mr India's targets are better for newbies right now as they are clearly less aggressive,

Indeed, shares don't go up in a straight line.

Buyers need sellers. MMs seem to be able to stimulate sells when dipping the price to encourage profit taking.

But more people now sitting on a free ride - so in time MMs will have to take this upwards and buyers will need to pay more.

Just visiting....as was interested to see what was going on here with such a big rise today

Some large trades starting to show from the latter part of today's trading.

Where there is a seller, there is a buyer. So interesting to see the big transactions north of 3p.

Will be fascinating to see what happens here tomorrow

I imagine the court case won't take very long - so I would expect to see an RNS before 12pm

HT - I think we would all like to know that.

Vlad did suggest it was not a 12mth issue at the Q&A

For me, it all comes down to how much work is required from Hemo when they are in possession of the re-manufactured lentivirus. This is market sensitive information and do not expect Hemo to share the answer to this question.

I'd have thought that scientists should have a pretty good idea of whether significant re-testing is required or not? Or perhaps with greater research it may be possible to predict. (e.g. based on timelines of previous CHs with a similar issue?) Although, companies don't tend to share that much information publicly.

I firmly believe that the next CAR-T RNS will not be issued until Hemo have provided complete response to FDA.

A few thoughts from me....

"it has been some time now since they got the FDA letter"

3 weeks does not feel a long time to me.

"Whether any runs are physically required again"

Vlad shared what he shared; some in RNS and some at the AGM Q&A. He did not go to this level of detail and I a very confident that we will not find out the answer to this question until we get an RNS confirming that Hemo has provided a complete response to FDA.

Detailed next steps (not timelines but just steps required to get IND approval)

The last RNS is very clear that they has just ONE issue to resolve before going back to the FDA with a complete response. Vlad has confirmed that they have resolved the issue and the lentivirus is being re-manufactured. Re-manufacturing will have started somewhere between 2nd June and 10th July; probably early July upon confirmation in the detailed FDA letter that the lentivirus was the only issue for the Hold.

Who the partner is for the future

Vlad made it very clear (in the Q&A at the AGM) that the Partner for the Clincial trials is ready and waiting but will not be announced until the FDA clinical hold is cleared.

Any update on CDX or CBR

Your guess is as good as mine when an update on these will come - it could be at any time as we know that both are progressing in the background. Vlad is not going to divulge anything further until he is ready to update the market which will be in an RNS. (Personally, I am hoping for an update this quarter, but it may not arrive til Q4 given the company will prioritise CAR-T progress)

Your comment on Novacyt is baffling - the share price dropped from over 1000 pence to 38 pence. The company has been valued at less than 50% of the cash in it's bank account and it made an enemy of the UK Government - it's biggest customer! Yes, it rallied a bit in the last few days, but nothing to get too excited about. I think you will find that shareholders are just as frustrated with their board as you appear to be with the Hemo board.

Charge: simples

People are discussing what the value of the share could be if one or more of Hemo's clinical candidates proved successful

Whilst valuation methodologies differ, Hemo's candidates will currently be heavily discounted in any NPV calculation. CAR-T (70-80% discount) , CBR and CDX (80-90% discount) given their current probability of success. (in the context of drug / therapy development cycles)

CBR is almost impossible to (potential) value (if successful) given its broad scope

Because Hemo is not (quite) yet clinical, many would also use a higher WACC when valuing future cashflows.

So it's likely that future revenues are discounted by 90-100%

(Numbers are just for illustrative purposes)

e.g. If CAR-T was valued at $500m at a 10% discount rate, at a 95% rate this is c$30m. So if current SP is based on the latter, if for whatever reason someone if confident it will make it through trials, they would be thinking about a x17 multiple on the SP.

The Maths is currently on the side of the Hemo share price:

....Let's take 3p as a reasonable benchmark as many existing shareholder probably have an average in this ballpark)

Those shareholders are currently sitting on a 50% paper loss. If the share price moves back to 3p, these holders have recovered their 50%.

New shareholders who buy at 1.5p however, will double their money if the SP moved back to 3p.

This mechanic only gets more powerful, the bigger the drop of the SP.

Share price can move quickly - upwards and downwards

If and when Hemo announce positive progress and development on one of their candidates, this increases the probability of success. e.g. If the probability of CAR-T being successful moves from 5% to 15% - the value of CAR-T triples and this could have a significant impact on the SP.

So, IMO, in the right context, it is ok to talk about a 50p share price;

I would think that the value of CAR-T is probably discounted by 95% in the current SP. It is credible to assume that in the next 6-12mths we could get initial Phase 1/1b trial results. IF, the results are really good in terms of safety (to humans) that would increase the probability of success. It is also likely that trials will give an early indication of how effective the cell therapy works on humans; and if results are good this will be a significant catalyst for the SP. At this stage it is reasonable to think about what potential Big Pharma players might want to pay to partner with Hemo or maybe even buy Hemo.

Equally, if CAR-T proves unsafe or makes a human worse, it could have a very different impact on the share price.

You pay your money, you takes your chances....

I agree Charles. I value highly the occasional contribution that Hemoknowledge brings. I'm no scientist, so it is nice to have a view on other AML treatments in progress.

Thank you Hemoknowledge.

Have a wonderful weekend everybody.

JHFH, great point about rampers. It's been years since we have seen any genuine ramping on here, those looking to trade need rampers, so we are in good shape

A respected poster on here suggested that if anything, they fine my posts sometimes on the negative side. I try and keep my posts grounded and neutral.

Mr India - i bare you no malice. No we are not friends, but equally we are not enemies

As i have said before, the feedback you get on here is universal. You have to understand that the way in which you engage with this board does nothing more than just annoy the hell out of everyone.

If you get something out of that, then good luck to you. Not a lot the rest of us can do other than ignore or filter you - which is a real shame and I'm sure that on occasions your contribution is valuable.

Mr India

One thing we agree on - JHFH is far better research than me and i totally respect his Hemo knowledge above mine. Although on occasions, I am able to compliment the research he has done.

Yes I do have a Facebook Group with c100 people and when there is something new to talk about - we'll use it to share thoughts. Many members have been very complimentary of it and the purpose it serves.

Yes i did ban you. I gave you a clean slate, but within a week i had 4 members threaten to leave if you were not banned. I tried to steer you in a way in which you could bring some value to the forum with your questions. But you ending up resorting to what you do on here - Flip/Flop, emotional drivel and try and make out you know what the market is thinking and how it is transacting. (You dont and nor do I)

Micky - I think you've summed it up @3:21

I agree, the amount of times i have been whipped into a frenzy and got all excited - only to be let down. To name a few:

CDX Deal imminent - sadly not the deal we all hoped for

Mint deal was a great deal, mainly funded by a wealthy Canadian benefactor bought into the Hemo Story - Sadly not

Biodefense Grant as reason for placing - sadly not

CAR-T IND Submission before Easter - sadly not

Green Light from FDA given >90% INS dont get a clinical hold - sadly not

Hope for a follow up CBR Update in H1 - sadly not

However, most of these have been a result of too much speculation, people adding 1 to 1 and making 3.

A few have been Hemo related, but they were only sharing what they were targeting - they will have been as disappointed as us when EL decided not to throw lots of money at CDX, or when Mint deal turned sour or when FDA placed a clinical hold.

But HUGE amount of positive progress has been made and the above are all behind us now. Reasons to cheer:

CAR-T Progress - Manufacturing capability in place through new lab, certified clean rooms and partnerships in place. IND submitted and following CH, Hemo have identified solution and clinical trials we commence in a matter of months. IN doing so Hemo make the step from pre clinical to Clincial Biotech.

CBR - continues to show huge potential and further validation ongoing in conjunction with the US Governement. Hemo targeting partner deals to hopefully progress CBR on multiple fronts.

CDX - Getting close to IND submission in partnership with Selexis. A genuine contender on an equal footing to CAR-T. Depending on performance in clinical trials Vad suggested that both CDX and CAR-T could have a role in improving outcomes for those with AML.

And Vlad committed to a website refresh and regular communications

So Micky, I agree that at times being heavily invested in this company has been super frustrating - But I'm still here, i still believe, I am very happy with the progress in the last 18mths and It is such an easy hold when share price is at these levels. The upside is huge, and worth the risk for me.

Translation of Mr I posts

I was super negative yesterday because i sold lots of my shares in Hemo

But, the share price did not move in the direction I had anticipated and there seemed to be a lot of Blue yesterday afternoon and today - and i started to panic a little

So I have bought back in

And i think HH, JHFH and Hemo are all wonderful again

The MATHS is on the side of this share

It's no 90% down on its ATH

With just a modest uptick in Advertising if this share was to recover to just 30% of its ATH - it would double bag from here

I'm in for the ride - these look very cheap for a company that is growing and has survived the challenge in the Advertising sector.

Not one of your projections have come true yet. NOT TRUE

You are one of the most learned and researched in hemo and a LTH and not even you are probably purchasing at this crazy low price. NOT TRUE

This is because no one knows how long it will take to get IND across the line TRUE

I am actually confident it will be delivered but like many others, we cannot just wait here indefinately and help the share price since we are here to make money PERSONAL CHOICE, THOSE THAT CAN WILL MAKE MONEY

- Why has no director bought even at this low price? NO IDEA

- Why has the TMS update that was promised not come online? NO SURE WHAT YOU ARE REFERRING TO

- Why hasnt vlad been clearer in his response knowing he knows what needs to be done? HE HAS BEEN CLEAR - IT IS IN THE RNS

- Where are all the investors now that hemo have got better marketing coverage? THE WHOLE STOCK MARKET IS STILL IN THE DOLDRUMS - STIMULATING THE PUBLIC TO INVEST IS HIGH ON THE GOVERNMENT AGENDA. YOU CAN GET 5% RISK FREE STAYING IN CASH

And yes, I have reported a number of posts today - not that i expect it to make much difference :-(

Especially the one from Guinness talking about a 0.9p share price at 9:01am

Luckily - history tells us that Guinness is just a de-ramper and rarely correct

Mr India - is it a con-incidence that you rock up after about 3 weeks at the same time as Guinness and Snooker?

II assume you have sold again - as you certainly are not doing anything to inspire confidence

I'm no ramper and never will be - all I have ever tried to do on this forum is be honest and share my perspective of what i have read . As i have said on countless occasions, more than happy to discuss risks - it's the orchestrated efforts to turn this forum toxic that is wrong.

We know exactly what is happening at Hemo - the Lentivirus is being manufactured with the resolution that Hemo have made. This will then make it's way to the Hemo lab where I assume they will test it before going back to the FDA with a complete response.

I mid June my 'par estimate" was that Hold would be lifted in November - anything sooner would be brilliant news, failure to remove hold this calendar year would be disappointing.

We know that HEMO will use any delay to increase resources and focus on CBR and CDX

Vlad talks a lot about the advantages of a small Biotech company like Hemo.

They are very agile and able to flex quickly to changing priorities. Whilst a CH was not desirable or Plan A - Vlad is able to re-prioritise his team very quickly. I would expect that CDX and CBR have benefited as a result and It would not surprise me if we get am update on one of these candidates soon.

The recent video which features the whole team evidences this flexibility - many of the team talk about their involvement in more than one of the clinical candidates. This is much less likely to happen in BIG Pharmas and Biotechs whose teams are much more separate and specialised.