Member Info for HeadInTheSand

I clearly spoke too soon.

...over the last day or so, which is a refreshing change. I suspect that the resident Tourette's sufferer has finally been sent to the naughty step for a while, no doubt due to his ever more frequently displayed xenophobia.

Enjoy it while it lasts, I guess.

I must admit that a claim that a company had just improved its prospects and "strengthened its balance sheet" by taking on an extra £5 million of debt (costing it a further £1 million in arrangement fees to do so) and also triggering an instantly payable 8% royalty on all gross revenues generated by its only producing asset did strike me as just a tad bizarre.

As for the gas pricing claim? Equally surreal - gas futures are stubbornly stuck at the low 60's per therm. Not that ANGS will actually earn that amount per therm, either because the existing hedge or its "fixed offtake price" replacement will cap the amount it can sell a sizeable percentage of its produced gas anyway. And the average daily volumes of produced gas are remaining at sub 70,000 therms a day.

Add into that ANGS's clearly telegraphed intention in the last RNS to significantly dilute existing holders by issuing new and heavily discounted confetti either to pay off already incurred debt or fees, or to raise future funds - and I'd say that the recent rerate downwards sharply downwards is an accurate reflection of the state of play.

You can't fool the market. There are multiple good reasons why the SP is where it is.

Is that the royal we or the EDF we, BV?

The current SP (and its inexorable and undeviating downward trajectory over the last several years) is a matter of cold, hard reality, not agenda. And that reality is the complete opposite of what you've spent the last several years assuring those naive enough to listen would happen.

I wonder if Aleph is going to force a change to its refinancing arrangement fees?

They were going to accept c. 251 million ANGS shares at £0.004p to cover this £1+ million debt, but I don't think they'll be too impressed to be taking an 18% haircut already.

Shades of ANGS's infamous capitalisation of the first £3 million junior loan at the end of last September. Those here paying attention to easily verifiable facts may remember that when first negotiated, this loan was meant to be repaid out of field income (it couldn't be... there was never enough) and also there was a contractually announced absolute minimum floor price of 1p per share, should that loan need to be settled in shares....

The loan was indeed settled in confetti... but at a price of 0.66p per share, not the promised 1p minimum.

I suspect the same may be about to happen again.

I'm personally here to post pure fact-based comments on a company that has attracted my interest.

Needless to say, I don't get paid to post - not even a penny (or to put it another way, not even 3 ANGS shares, which equates to the same value).

It's utterly unsurprising that BV refuses to address utterly simplistic and undeniable issues such as the endless spiralling down of the ANGS SP to new lows (he literally can't). Instead he does his level best to discredit those posting accurate and reality-based assessments and commentary - presumably in the hope that nobody notices his desperate refusal to address the ever-growing elephant in the room.

It'd be amusing if it wasn't so tragic. He claims to have bought 0.5% of the company by now. That'd presumably have been 1% of the company if he'd only waited...

Looks like there's a new hand at the BV keyboard all of a sudden...

I don't believe the individual in question is a genuine PI, Naheed.

In the 3.5 years since he joined LSE, all of his 6,100 posts have been on ANGS, all have assured anyone naive enough to listen that ANGS presents the best investment opportunity ever... and he's continued that constant but increasingly desperate cheerleading in the face of all the evidence, including the SP being down c. 90% in the last 18 months.

Nobody can possibly genuinely be that much of a reality-denier.

"We have been open about our liquidity need, sensitive to shareholders concerns about dilution..." (Richard Herbert, IQ answer, 31st Jul 23)

"We sought debt over equity because, for the anticipated length of time of six months prior to a refinance, even expensive debt is generally a better option than rawly dilutive equity which has a permanent impact.... At this low share price shareholders, such as yourself, have become understandably concerned about the risk of the remaining £6m junior debt converting at even lower share prices." ((Richard Herbert, IQ answer, 31st Oct 23)

...and despite the above assurances that the company was averse to diluting existing shareholders, yesterday's RNS revealed that:-

1) The 8% royalty payments due to Mercuria and Aleph WILL be paid in heavily discounted newly issued shares from March 23 to June 25. That'll be about £1.3 million's worth of new shares.

2) The £1+ million due to Aleph companies for arranging this new financing WILL be paid immediately in newly issued shares.

3) The remaining PF debt of £2.88 million, which must be fully paid off by June 25 can be paid in heavily discounted newly issued shares.

4) The ANGS board is seeking authority to issue at least 2.75 billion new shares.

No wonder the SP is so sharply down and circling the plughole. Way to avoid dilution and to take care of existing shareholders, Mr. Herbert. Clearly, here comes the new boss, same as the old boss.

Classic BV. He's unable to comment on the facts raised, so instead can only resort to attacking posters commenting on the issue. How depressingly banal.

I further note that that, amongst comments made on other companies, I've posted 46 times on ANGS over the last 30 days. BV on the other hand has posted almost exactly double this amount with his 91 posts, all exclusively on ANGS, albeit largely posting irrelevant insult. It's therefore very clear who's putting in the increasingly desperate spadework.

I'll be fascinated to see if the SP reaches 1.5p by the end of March as you all but guaranteed it would just last month, Onetomany

...especially after today's aftermarket RNS.

"There's nothing in the RNS that we didn't know"... seriously???

Have you bothered working out how many new shares ANGS is seeking the authority to issue? And how many it's almost certain to issue?

Here's a clue. For every £1 million of nominal value, ANGS gets to issue 500 million new shares, if it wishes.

As I said, after this RNS, there being a "mere" 4.14 billion shares in issue is soon set to be a rapidly receding memory. Confetti time ahoy, sadly.

It looks like there being only (only, right?) 4.14 billion shares in issue will soon be a distant memory.

That's one ****load of new shares they're seeking authority to issue...

As we all know, this has precisely nothing to do with Sando increasing any trust for the benefit of employees - and everything to do with him making sure he's got another 10% of votes available which he can then use to pass whatever resolutions are needed to keep his farcical and utterly unjustified salary paid for just a little bit longer.

Talk about being very handsomely rewarded for the nigh on utter destruction of shareholder value... must be nice work, provided that one's got absolutely zero sense of shame or ethics.

"Accretive"? Better described as a blatant vote-rigging action.

It is laughable to state that any number of less than positive comments posted on a bulletin board can "destroy people's investments". And of course, as the UKOG SP clearly, bleakly and undeniably shows, pretty much the entirety of those less than positive comments have turned out to be bang on 120% accurate, so can hardly be described as "deramps".

If you really want to know why those holding UKOG shares have had their investments destroyed, then look literally no further than the utterly ineffectual actions and completely untrue statements from the UKOG board of directors.

Plus of course, in terms of anyone being naive enough to believe what they read on a bulletin board, who may as a result have been inspired to buy into a company like UKOG, or alternatively or to hold shares longer than they should have, then the heavenly choir of "jam tomorrow" cheerleaders may well have a considerable amount to answer for.

Noel, you'd assume entirely wrong then (I really would have thought that you bothered reading RNSes?)

Anyhow, this from the Feb 22nd RNS, stating clearly that it starts from March 1st this year - 8% of all gross revenues from existing SFBY wells, with 3% going to Mercuria and 5% to Aleph.:-

Royalty Interest

As part of the senior debt facility secured in 2021 to redevelop the Saltfleetby Field, the Company acquired a commitment to pay royalties to the lenders from the three current producing wells on repayment of that part of the debt associated with the construction of field facilities. The royalty period will commence from 1 March 2024 for payments to Aleph entities of 5% and Mercuria of 3% of gross revenues of sales gas and condensate. The royalty will not be applied to any future wells that the Company drills.

OneToMany, please feel free to point out where any number is wrong.

The first RNS on Feb 22nd confirmed there's a 5 year £20m amortising loan at c. 14% p.a. interest, with no principal being paid back in year one. This means that ANGS will owe £2.8 million in year one (interest only), then £6.56 million in years two to five (interest plus principal). Feel free to calculate this yourself and report back.

The 8% royalty on gross production revenues was also confirmed in that same RNS. ANGS is currently generating revenues of c. £1m per month. The royalty owed would therefore be £0.96 million per annum.

The self-same RNS confirms that PF is still owed £2.88 million, fully payable by June 2025.

Sorry, but the only numbers that are likely to be wrong lie in your repeated assurance that the ANGS SP will be 1.5p by the end of March.,

Taverham, nobody's sure about ANGS's current level of Opex or G&A for that matter - so I've not taken any account of that.

However, from published RNS documents, it's extremely simple to work out what the refinancing will cost ANGS over the next 5 years.

It's also simple to work out what an 8% royalty on all gross SFBY revenues in perpetuity will cost ANGS - you just need to estimate average monthly production levels and average gas sales pricing. That 8% royalty due was just re-confirmed by RNS.

As for the remaining PF debt of £2.88 million, payable in full by Jun 25? That's just been confirmed by RNS as well.