Proposed Directors of Tirupati Graphite explain why they have requisitioned an GM. Watch the video here.
Actually, the market is behaving completely logically, because it's not suffering from confirmation bias.
None of the 7 things listed by Tony_Currie are confirmed. Not many are even that likely - in fact a couple are purely wishful thinking.
Of course the alternative is that those endlessly assuring riches and re-rates just around the corner (as they have beeen doing for many months in the face of an ever-dropping SP) are in fact far smarter than the market, which will wake up one day to the amazing potential of ANGS. I wonder how likely that is?
There are a couple of leading candidates for the title.
Firstly, any of the cheerleaders with their continuous promises of jam tomorrow riches being just around the corner. They've been singing the same song for over 4 years now, ever since the Saltfleetby acquisition on Jun 19th 2019, when the SP reached 4p. It's never got anywhere near those levels since and is currently 80% down from that level.
That SP is something the heavenly choir does its best to ignore, since it evidences the cold, hard and very obvious fact that those expressing a more wary opinion of ANGS have to date been proven bang on right.
However, I'd give the title to the company's executive dream team and especially George Porky Pie Lucan. Who can forget the bucketloads of publicly issued statements, all of which categorically turned out to bear literally no resemblance to the truth?
To pick just a couple of personal faves from the litany of BS spouted by the company over the last 4 years...
" At this stage the Directors are confident that reconnection at commercial rates is possible within the £2.5 million budget and advised timescale of completing work between May and August 2020."
RNS 19/06/19.
(The £2.5 million referred to was given to ANGS at time of acquisition. Shortly afterwards they found they needed to borrow £12m at credit card rates).
"We would be surprised and disappointed if the drilling part of the programme exceeded 28 days and the entire programme involved more than 7-10 days either side. On behalf of the Board, we have never heard or seen of any internal document which suggested we were planning for a 16 week side-track at Saltfleetby and we would challenge the poster to produce it. For that matter I haven’t heard of a drilling programme anywhere to these depths which could conceivably take 16 weeks – except perhaps on Mars, which is possibly where your poster hails from."
Answer to Investor Question 23/09/21
(The internal document referred to was ANGS's own planning permission as submitted into Lincs CC which stated "up to 16 weeks". As we now know, the sidetrack took going on 6 months - and cost £millions more than were assured).
So, the company's directors would definitely deserve the title of "biggest laughing stock"...
...except it's not in the least bit funny for anybody who's invested based on any of their publicly made statements, predictions, promises and assurances.
OP, all quite correct... BUT given that ANGS has a tricky cash flow situation to navigate through even with the doubling of production that the sidetrack eventually delivered, IMO it's crystal clear that the company would have defaulted on its liabilities without said production-doubling sidetrack.
Thay makes it a success, albeit a deeply pyrrhic one.
To be fair, you have to consider the sidetrack as a success. Why?
Because even though it took 5 times longer (literally) than GL insisted it would and even though it cost many millions more than the company assured it would, the fact is that it has doubled production levels.
But way WAY more importantly than that... imagine if it had failed? Especially with what we know now about ANGS's short-term cashflow vs debt issues. The sidetrack has literally kept ANGS in business. That has to be considered a success against the alternative scenario.
Regardless, BP is quite correct about facing up to realities, especially when those realities are so easy to see. Even with that doubled production, the SP is down 57.5% from the date of the sidetrack news.
So either the cheerleaders here are perceptive geniuses and it's the market as a whole that is just plain thick. Or the market is in fact bang on right in terms of how it currently values ANGS and therefore something meaningful has to change (gas prices, maybe?) or there needs to be some significant and concrete new news (longer-term replacement financing, maybe?).
"I'm not afraid of an eu army...." So... we're liable to get invaded by Europe, are we?
Nurse, double the meds for ScarletVixen, please.
I don't think the company's going pop for one second.
However, the self-evident cold hard reality is that something needs to change to get the SP moving upwards. The market knows all about the sidetrack which, when combined with other revelations about cashflow, did not prevent a 50% drop in the SP since its success was announced.
Even the most ardent ANGS cheerleader would have to acknowledge that new news must be needed. Otherwise... what changes?
For all the latest jam tomorrow musings about possible gas storage or carbon capture, they're just distant future possibles, born out of vaguely desperate hope rather than anything else. IMV the most likely thing in the short term to arrest and reverse the ANGS SP decline is for the company to secure the replacement 18 month £20 million facility. That would really help it and change the short- to mid-term picture.
Alternatively (as he seems to be obsessed with history), you could listen to Robday, this BB's latest version of little orphan Annie, belting out the "Tomorrow" song at the top of his little lungs and trying his level best to ignore all the factual evidence....
robday
Posted in ANGS
2 Apr 2023
My bet is we should see 4p tomorrow on double flow rate news
robday
Posted in ANGS
19 Apr 2023
There will be a time when we all look back and wish we got more shares when the share price dropped back to the 1.6p range
robday
Posted in ANGS
14 May 2023
... and at a cost price of 1.5p this is an absolute bargain and I feel 3p without all the talk of buyout is very easily achievable on these daily results
Robday, you're quite correct in pointing out that the sidetrack was a success, in that it delivered what it was intended to, a doubling of daily production output. Okay, it was very late (George is on public record absolutely insisting it'd only take 6 weeks... now there's a laugh) and cost far more than it was meant to... but still, it was successful.
Unfortunately, much to everyone's surprise (including mine), it turned out not to be "all about the sidetrack". Since its success was announced in mid-April this year, the share price has lost more than 50% of its value (with a primary reason for that fall seeming to be cashflow/short-term debt related).
You talk about "tail winds" and "massive opportunities to buy at the bottom" (which is the exact same message you've been pumping for months). Sadly, the incontrovertible evidence of the SP's direction during all that cheerleading indicates that the wind has been in the exact opposite direction and that the bottom has not necessarily been reached yet.
I find it a tad tragic that, having been forced to recognise that the much-promoted sidetrack has done nothing for the share price, you're now having to thump the tub about gas storage and carbon capture. How very "jam tomorrow"... yet again.
Robday, it is surprising that you think anyone on a discussion board can have any effect on a company in any direction. You should really have known this from taking a look at how your own attempts to talk the company up have fared. Not quite the "5p by Xmas 2022" being assured by the cheerleaders mid last year.
No, the only party responsible for "disrupting" ANGS is the company itself.
Ironic, Robday, since you don't seem a fan of informative posts, as per your reaction to the link being posted to the Viking CCS project.
That article covers the possibility of using the once vast offshore/North Sea Viking field for carbon capture storage, filling the depleted gas field it through its existing connection to Theddlethorpe.
Details on the project are here:-
https://consultation.vikingccs.co.uk/the-project
Apart from geographical proximity, I'm not sure that it's got a huge amount of relevance to Saltfleetby?
Thanks Gallder.
July revenues @ £1.53 million post derivative settlement pretty much bang on what those having done a modicum of research expected.
"I would much rather see Angus maintain production, maybe even poke another sidetrack for further "infill" to optimise drainage for at least the next 5-7 years. giving time to hopefully build a decent war chest for whatever they line up in the future."
That would without doubt be the sensible thing to do, BP. Unfortunately, while questions regarding the sufficiency of short-term cashflow remain, the SP isn't going anywhere. So the cheerleaders clearly need to find another hobbyhorse to flog, hence all the recent tubthumping about Centrica and gas storage.
It's not totally clear though. ANGS entirely ducked the question asking why cash from the £7 Xmas megaplacing was not used to pay off the hedge shortfall, when the company specifically stated that it would be. It merely stated that it's been paid off now (by using cash from the very recently secured second £6m shorrt-term bridging loan).
However (if it can be believed, which is sadly something one always has to bear in mind with ANGS), apparently there are no more nasty legacy debt surprises to be sprung on investors. The company just has to be able to manage timely payment of its existing and already incurred short-term liabilities.
Well, you never know...
Something needs to happen for sure, because, courtesy of the usual company opacity about its levels of short-term debt, it's turned out not to be about the sidetrack after all.
In other news, it seems that Bozo Johnson has (accidentally) done one good thing. By resigning in a huff as an MP, the by-election he brought about in Uxbridge has put the crippling stupidity of the vast majority of the so-called Green agenda firmly to the front of the political stage. Rishi's showing clear signs of engaging reverse gear, while Sir Keir won't even speak on the subject, for fear of either alienating Labour's traditional working man/woman base or causing the dewy-eyed woke Leftistas to spiral into a self-righteous hissyfit.
Interesting times...
The market isn't stupid, so it's taken into account all the known info.
I'd simply like to know views on what piece of new news might to reverse the SP's markedly downward trend of the last several months?
I have my ideas, but it'd be good to hear others.
Patrick, there are various ways to find that info, but probably the easiest/quickest is to visit the company website and download each full year report.
In the "NOTES TO THE CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS" section near the end, you'll find a section called "Share Capital" (often it's note 15) that gives you the number of shares in issue at the start of that FY, the number of shares in issue at the end of that FY and the list of transactions that caused any change within that FY (or HY).
Here are the figures as per those FY and HY reports:-
As of the FY ending Sep 30th 2018, ANGS had 381.7 million shares in issue.
As of the FY ending Sep 30th 2019, ANGS had 540.8 million shares in issue.
As of the FY ending Sep 30th 2020, ANGS had 715.2 million shares in issue.
As of the FY ending Sep 30th 2021, ANGS had 966.5 million shares in issue.
As of the FY ending Sep 30th 2022, ANGS had 2,764.3 million shares in issue.
As of the HY ending Mar 31st 2023, ANGS had 3,434.1 million shares in issue.
Since that point, as per the RNS of 21st July, ANGS has issued further shares and the number of shares in issue currently stands at over 3.6 billion.
And then there are warrants that the company has issued on top of that, but that would be much more time-consuming to track.
Rob, you complain about personal attacks... then claim I'm attacking you by merely pointing out your own repeated personal attacks against other posters???
Riiiiight. Have a nice day now.
Robday, there's this thing called "self-awareness"... you really might wish to try it.
Here's what you posted only an hour ago.
Robday
ANGS
Today 08:12
"Your comments above are again a personal attack at another investor you know nothing about."
"Finally, nobody's accused you in this thread, Rob..."
I'd recommend that you switch to thread view (rather than message view) when it comes to this or any other BB, Rob, otherwise you'll continue to find things confusing and get conversations mixed up.
There's a green toggle button at the top right of the share chat posts when you first open the chat page...