Member Info for HeadInTheSand

ShakenBake... An informed post (finally). My 100Mbps may be a tad pessimistic, but looking at current real world performance of existing KA assets over Europe, I reckon it's closer to the truth than your 1Gbps. But for the sake of argument let's split the difference and say I'm out by a factor of 5... it's still a quart out of a pint pot situation, no? AVN has indeed fairly recently provisioned some of the latest Hughes Jupiter-2 platforms (as announced in Jan 17 with the Eurona deal) - but the maximum real-world throughput of a Jupiter-2 hub is.... 100Mbps, as announced in the Eurona RNS-R. Their Gilat SkyEdge II-c hubs have a similar real-world performance. Yes of course satellites have multiple transponder payloads, but I'm focussing in on single transponders to make the point. How heavily can existing assets be sweated? What annual revenue can be expected per transponder today, given market demand and competitive technologies? There's certainly a place in the market for satellite broadband, but with current tech, it's becoming ever more marginalised and it's important to be realistic about what it can actually deliver today. What's needed is a technology step change - and there's one coming in 2020, if Viasat/Eutelsat are to be believed. If I remember, tomorrow I'll post a link to their OFCOM submissions re the potential USO (10Mbps minimum universal service obligation) that is being much talked about in Whitehall. Interesting reading...

The issues I have are with misinformation. Looking at any existing KA domestic service in the UK, it is indeed theoretically possible to stream, which is why this ability can be marketed. However, in practice, it's rarely possible... and here's why. Start with the maximum throughput rate of a KA transponder today. Any guesses? 100Mbps max - and that's being generous, allowing for superbly optimised link budgets. But let's go with that 100Mbps - it makes the maths easy and presumes some very smart traffic shaping. Now, what speed is needed for SD streaming? iPlayer plumps for 5Mbps... so, regardless of package chosen (whether defined by speed or data amount, a single KA transponder can only cater for 20 concurrent streaming users... and nobody else hanging off that transponder using any bandwidth at all. It's simple maths. And please feel free to check that stated transponder throughput figure. Now of course, what are the chances of there being 20 concurrent streaming users? Unfortunately increasingly more likely, what with the rise of IP-based TV on demand. This is no criticism of AVN - it's equally true of Eutelsat and SES. The satellite broadband industry basically attempts to die a gallon out of a pint pot - and because of this and geometrically rising appetites for data every year, it's becoming harder and harder to do this while still delivering anywhere near an acceptable level of service. (And yes, I too was gobsmacked when the "behind the scenes" numbers were explained to me - though perhaps it's less surprising if one considers that a technology primarily designed for broadcast is being manipulated to deliver effectively individual P2P unique communications.) PS the above 100Mbps maximum can really easily be turned into a maximum possible GB per month delivery, presuming 100% 24/7 bandwidth utilisation... which then gives a good estimate on the maximum number of users that can be hung off a single transponder... and then factor in a deliberately chosen overprovisioning ratio.

Good grief. First off, I imagine Robbie went and visited Avonline's website rather than trekking off to Bristol. Secondly, there is no way any responsible reseller would sell a domestic or small business oriented satellite broadband service for the purposes of streaming SD video, let alone HD or UHD on any of today's KA-based services. Live streaming can be done (and is), e.g. by TV news channels with live satellite uplinks back to studio - but they're utilising dedicated and uncontended bandwidth that they've purchased/rented and serious kit, both things which are far beyond the financial reach of the wider market.

RM no a failure to sync audio and video is not the issue with satellite & streaming. There are however definitely issues with streaming over satellite broadband that are related to latency (typically and unavoidably around 600-700ms at best with geostationary satellite) and consequential potentially frequent buffering. Satellite's better suited to download catch-up TV rather than streaming (big files that can be downloaded at leisure for later viewing, rather than much smaller and time-critical data packets). I wouldn't look to recommend streaming unless one had access to a 4G or wireless broadband service, or of course an FTTC/FTTP-based one.

I've no idea who Crobe is. As to industry knowledge, I'm no avid Google researcher or cut n paste apologist, but have far more respect for the opinions of those actually involved in the real world business of satellite connectivity. Which is something that I also happen to be involved in on a day to day basis, interacting with network operators, regional and central government and major channels to market - all of which are IMO way more reliable information sources than any copy and pastable/linkable PR puff to be found on the web. Moreover, despite several concerted efforts to the contrary, I have never found AVN's offered services or business case in any way compelling, when stacked up against its direct competition. Of course, that's just in respect of the commercial requirements that are specific to the business I'm in, but still...

The trouble with the internet is the fact that any cut n paster can find a link which supports his or her own set of beliefs - and then sit and hug his or her knees smugly. Confirmation bias... it's a dangerous thing. Tyche, I have no intention of trying to steal your self-appointed and Google-gained guru's crown - stay at it my good man and keep banging the Avanti drum for all you're worth (though i doubt you need any encouragement). Me? I'll carry on living in the real commercial world of satellite-delivered connectivity.

Not can't... won't. My opinions are formed from daily business experience and operating in the industry, rather than Google cut n paste. But that's fine - feel free to ignore. One should always be massively cynical when it comes to self-professed bulletin board experts...

Tyche, yes most of Tooway's UK spotbeams have been full for a while, which is why they're pretty much operating a "one off, one on" policy. I'm also aware of AVN's role in providing pro-tem backhaul to the EE ESN contract. As to providing links showing that Avanti's Gilat-based 30 Mbps service is also up to and over capacity? No I can't. What I can say - and this will have to remain unsubstantiated - is that I'm personally very aware of high churn on the AVN 30Mbps service and numerous end-user complaints both into AVN's reseller base and those governmental departments providing subsidies. It was all great when there were just a few hundred on the west coast of Scotland during Avanti's phase 3 pilot project, but since nationwide roll-out of the 30Mbps services, things aren't quite so rosy. This is perhaps unsurprising if one does the maths - take the max Mbps capability of a KA transponder, decide what an acceptable level of monthly average QoS per user in Mbps is and then work out how many 30 Mbps users with what average GB per month allowance can be provisioned off said spot-beam... it's really not that many, if acceptable levels of service are going to be maintained.

Oh and PS all existing government subsidy schemes operational in the UK to fulfil the USC are technology neutral - they offer varying levels of subsidy up to a maximum to be used toards the CapEx cost of getting an approved service from an approved RSP (retail service provider). Subsidies can be used to get satellite broadband, or wireless broadband (if available) or 4G broadband (if in coverage). Small communities can even pool their subsidies and pass them over to BT via its Community Fibre Partnership program if they wish, to offset the cost of getting a new fibre-enabled cabinet deployed and thus being able to access an FTTC based service.

The BDUK Better Broadband subsidy scheme is one of (and by far the largest of) three subsidy schemes currently covering the entirety of the UK with the aim of covering off the USC (universal service commitment @ min 2Mbps). It is not new news and has been running since June 2015. Superfast Cornwall is mentioned, because although largely administered and entirely funded by BDUK, applicants have to apply to their regional broadband authority in order to access the subsidy available. Tyche is right... Avonline has been flogging Avanti and EutelSat/Tooway services for years and were indeed recently acquired by SSW (now there's an interesting and very well-managed company). Avonline were heavily pushing the newer Avanti KA 30Mbps packages deliverable via the Gilat hub that the government funded for Avanti under the Phase 3 pilot project, but that has (unsurprisingly) now become over-subscribed and average services are degraded. Which is probably why that quoted Avonline piece mentions Avanti in one breath, but then bangs on about Tooway services (22Mbps) in the next. It's all a bit moot really, as far as satellite delivered broadband goes in the UK, because it's getting so squeezed out to the extreme edges by the rampant rise of 4G which is so much more reliable, much faster, much cheaper from a CapEx point of view to install and much more cost-effective on a per GB basis. Given that EE recently won a government contract based around the emergency services that requires them to deliver a 95% geographic (yes geographic, not population) 4G coverage by 2020, this is only going one way. And that's before we've even mentioned future 5G roll-outs...

(with sincere yet slight grudging admiration) that this is an extremely well-run company that doesn't seem to put a foot wrong. Hats off to the BoD. Now that David Williams at Avanti has (yet again and God knows how) staved off disaster and secured yet more liquidity funding from the long-suffering bond holders, that keeps the Avanti service in business for one more year (at which point the wheels simply have to finally fall off, but never mind). The point now is that the Avonline acquisition can now continue to make hay while the sun shines in the UK market, selling the Avanti service it now majors on, leveraging as many £350 government grants as it can get hold of to grow the homeground customer base, while the rest of the company focusses on continuing strategic growth elsewhere (and particularly the Nordics and Australia). A smart and robust organisation IMO and one that's set to continue a slow but steady and inexorable growth. Very definitely one for long term holders.