Member Info for HeadInTheSand

...and the worst thing about this is we're going to have a few days of posts from Bozo Billy, telling everyone to jump aboard the rocket ship, that the SP is going to 10p very soon and that UKOG will be FTSE listed within two years. The sooner this chump trades out again, the better... it took him a week last time.

Well sure this was entirely orchestrated in terms of timing - not illegal in any way, but improper? Make your own minds up. I still say the best thing without doubt is to sit on your hands and do nothing - and really hope LTHers didn't top up into yesterday's rise. The biggest beneficiary in all this is of course YA - gee, whoda thunk? - who will have gleefully been forward selling yesterday as much as they possibly could at spike prices. Expect a big fat conversion very soon - if they've timed this right (and they will have), they could have made themselves 35%+ (sold at at say 1.45, convert back at say 1.15 less 10%). Mark my words, there's going to be no realistic trend in the SP till YA is out of the game - but there'll be plenty of opportunities to unwisely buy in on very short-term false dawns like yesterday. IMO this will yoyo until YA is out... and only then will any potential be seen.

Yep agreed. FWA is the next technology that anybody should plump for if they can't get FTTP or a decent FTTC based service. If you can't get FWA, then go 4G. If you can't get anything, then go satellite. Thing is, because FWA requires its own WiMax network to be deployed, which is fairly capital intensive (though nothing compared to the cost of digging in fibre), pure commercial necessity means that operators can only realistically extend coverage out from somewhere they've already got a presence (and backhaul). It's a creeping coverage model. Quickline (which I think was a very smart acquisition btw) can't suddenly offer FWA access in Somerset, say, because their core network is around Hull and Doncaster (with a separate small patch they got via acquisition in the North Pennines). So yes a great technology for BBB to be in and yes capable of blistering speeds - but enough to offset the churn of VSAT to 4G all over the UK? I'm more doubtful....

I honestly don't know why some can't get their heads around this. Has there been sustained shorting of UKOG over the last 8 or so months, as many aggravated LTHers claim? Effectively yes, of course there has - BUT this hasn't come from some alleged and mythical Evil Global Shorting Conspiracy (tm) and attendant legions of malevolent paid deramper trolls. Nope, it's come from the very people that SS and the UKOG BoD selected as their funding provider, namely YA. This should come as no surprise to anyone, because it's the exact way such financing invariably works and such finance providers invariably make their money and maximise their return. It's happened hundreds of times on hundreds of stocks. Okay very strictly speaking, it's forward selling, rather than shorting, but there's effectively zero difference at all. And yes, I'm fully aware that the terms of hte loan prohibit YA or any of its affiliates from holding "any net short position with respect to the equity of UKOG". But this isn't straight shorting, and don't tell me that there aren't gaping holes in that provision via using non-affiliated but friendly third parties. In my very firm opinion, YA isn't interested in being an LTH of UKOG shares at all, so its ability to pick shares up at a 10% discount for a long-term hold is completely irrelevant. What they do instead is quietly forward sell via friendly 3rd party, causing the SP to move ever inexorably lower. Then when they feel the time and previous 5 day lowest price is right (less a further tasty little 10% discount, of course), they then convert and settle the friendly 3rd party's borrow. Pretty much zero risk money for old rope and with a nice margin attached. And of course, if YA is aware of any upcoming bad news before it gets RNSed, even if only by a week or two - e.g. the BB fiasco - then there's serious margins available for them to make. I'm not saying that other people having seen the financial deal announced and knowing how these things always play out won't have ridden on YA's coat tails - they of course will have - but IMO it'll be YA itself quite deliberately leading the downward spiral over the last 8 months. Basically, if you dine with the Devil - as UKOG has done - your meal's not liable to be that palatable. Which is why I maintain that, as long as YA remains in the game with the purely self-serving agenda and strategy that they naturally have, no PI can have any clue as to what the realistic and natural level for the UKOG SP - which is why I remain convinced it's best to sit on one's hands and do precisely nothing right now. AIMO of course.

sair, let's park 5G for the moment... but as you rightly say, there may be potential in the 700MHz band there at some distant future point. The issue isn't so much that 4G won't reach every home (It won't)... the issue is how much of BBB's *existing* customer base now has access to 4G. If they do, they'll churn away from VSAT (there is literally no reason not to). So what you've got is a declining existing customer base combined with a shrinking new target market - in W Europe at least. That is the issue in a nutshell.

ojls, there are several theories that are knocking around re the apparent wish for a placing. 1. To secure sufficient funds in place to pass OGA approval criteria 2. To fund the move from investment company to operating company 3. To finance some new acquisitions 4. To keep the lights on because Uncle Stevie's spunked the whole existing lot on BB, Bahamas holidays, hookers and coke or whatever. Now #4 above shouldn't even enter into consideration, because of previous RNSed statements re full funding for calendart 2018 already being in place. The problem there is solely one of trust - SS has not covered himself in glory with his previous ramptastic antics, nor with his current radio silence ... so some are having trouble with the company's trustworthiness (rightly or wrongly).

valveamp, have you factored the multiple possible ways in which YA could be playing their still ongoing hand into your theory?

Excellent summary, Gerry. Spot on.

One would hope so. I worry that they've expanded too fast (and paid too much for customer bases), in an effort to hit self-imposed targets in order to please the city. I still find it completely mystifying why they're continuing to buy VSAT customers in Western Europe at the prices they're clearly prepared to pay? To me, it's utter madness and I can't see them ever making a return on outlay - the customer will be long-gone onto alternate and better performing technology before they've recouped the purchase cost, in my view. They seriously need to transition the business much more fully over to FWA and 4/5G in W. Europe at least... and as fast as possible. I suspect the next total installed customer base information is already going to show some pretty nasty decreases, once one takes acquisitions out of the numbers.

I would have thought that the costs of sourcing bandwidth, maintaining fibre infrastructure and tech supporting fibre-based customers were far FAR lower than doing the same for FWA customers? Plus, wouldn't the FWA Aussie side need access to fibre backhaul anyway to feed the network? Okay, maybe it is about not diversifying too much, but I agree... that is a bargain basement price. Using your figures, sairfecht, that puts the value per remaining customer up to A$715. That's steeeeeeeep.

Nibble, if I were you, I'd follow your own "ignore the clown" advice. Checking Bozo's post history, you'll find the exact same rocket ships, blast off, volcano eruption, two quid next week comments (pretty much word for word identical) on his chosen 4 other ramp targets, particularly WEB and BBSN. Poster since March 8th this year... and all those posts utterly ramptastic. Same old, same old...

...you get this month's award for the most unnecessarily asked rhetorical question. Well done! Here's your wining entry in all its glory:- Ninetails Today 10:57 "Billy.....are you thick?" I never thought I'd regret the absence of more adept rampers, but hey, you learn something new every day. And I am also considering collecting some of our latest new ramptastic recruit's more pithy and cerebral pieces of investment advice for publication in a best-seller for this Xmas. So far I've got such mind-blowing gems as:- "A reverse stock split involves the company dividing its current shares by a number such as 5 or 10, which would then be called a 1-for-5 or 1-for-10 split, respectively." "you're going to miss the boat to the rocket island...she'll be in the FTSE within 10 years" "new tech will get the oil out of the ground, then you will not be able to get in for less than 2.00 min. There are those that know things before many other learn of those things. There are many wise investors who do their own research. The presents are all wrapped up." "He who does not buy does not win!" "the aim of the game is to buy low and sell high." "however when you consider how much oil and moreover gas has come from offshore drilling over the last few decades that have made this country rich, it stand to reason that there is likely an abundant amount onshore." Bless him...

Thing is, while YA remains in the game, with their own profit maximisation strategies in play, no PI can rely on short-term SP movement (up or down) as an indicator of realistic trend in any way. I'm sure many of us have seen the exact same trend-distorting yo-yo patterns plenty of times with other companies who've used very similar finance-providing mechanisms as those who've handed over the wonga play their market manipulating games. So, clear as mud, I'd say. I'd recommend firmly sitting on one's hands and doing nothing - not getting over-excited by a mini-rise, nor over-depressed at a mini-fall - until some real clarity emerges. AIMO.

KPat, as you'll have gathered from the thread post immediately preceding mine, there are one or two sorry individuals still posting on here who were talking the share up when it was at the heady heights of 200p+. They've not stopped since. You can always recognise that type of PI. They're the ones who start making wild accusations about "multiple IDs! Evil Global Shorting Conspiracy (tm)! Paid trolls!" whenever faced with less than ramptastic counter-opinion. Then they shut their eyes tight, shove their fingers in their ears and sing La La La as loudly as they can, rather than even consider the validity of any position in any way differing from their own, Tragic, really... but things probably feel nicer to them once they've pulled their pink fluffy blinkers on. Back in the real world, recent SP movements do give strong indications that we're nearing placing o'clock in my book... we'll just have to wait and see. AIMO.

Great. Do you promise to eff off with your puerile drivel of rocket ships when it doesn't hit that? I swear to God, you used to get a better class of ramper with this share. I don't think Billy's got past the title page of Ramping for the Under Fives at all...

It's bad enough that the SP is as depressed as it is. It's bad enough that SS and the BoD are saying their usual nothing. But if the only rampers left are of the care in the community/kindergarten variety like the recently appeared Billy, then hell, PIs really are in trouble. BTW I completely agree that the best current strategy is to sit on your hands.

FFS... I mean okay we've all seen well-crafted ramps before now on all sorts of stocks. Some of them are so slick and polished as to be almost grudgingly admirable - beautifully crafted and well-written blogs on why a company is just BOUND to be a multi-bagger if you'll just wait a little longer and keep on averaging down, for example. But some of the utter BS on this BB today? It's like someone let out a pre-school ramping class somewhere and the 5 year olds have got hold of the keyboards. I particularly LOVE this one... "however when you consider how much oil and moreover gas has come from offshore drilling over the last few decades that have made this country rich, it stand to reason that there is likely an abundant amount onshore." Sure. That absolutely stands to reason. Who cares about stuff like geology?

Cassius, I've not crunched the numbers re "then and now" market cap and debt, but I suspect you have... $550m less debt but more than 12 times the shares in issue. Thing is, I'm not at all sure how real that 140p offer from Inmarsat ever was. They were certainly very quick to distance themselves from any offer and state they were no longer interested at all back in late Jul/early Aug 16 - so I'm not sure that alleged 140p bid in any way represents a valid start point for any calculations as to current value as a potential acquisition. AVN has assets for sure (tin in the sky - now including H4 as you point out and spectrum rights). What it doesn't yet have is any commercially viable track record as a going concern - which is why IMO it's only worth considering the value of its assets and not its overall business.

I'd say HL's systems just helped you dodge a bullet, Ninetails. The only questions it's worth PIs asking themselves right now IMO are:- 1. Why does UKOG need to raise cash? a) Is it as part of OGA criteria? b) Is it for some sort of acquisition? c) Is it for general cashflow/expenses and if so, where's the 10 million gone and how come the "fully funded for all of 2018" statement? 2. If there's going to be a placing, what's the placing price going to be? What level of discount against the current SP? Don't expect any answers on anything above in the short term at least from the company. It's best guess time for everyone at the moment...

The only factor affecting the current SP is the performance of the BoD, both in managing cashflow and in managing market expectations - and they've spectacularly failed in both, IMV. Sure, the usual rampers may have sucked in naive PIs and left them holding uncomfortable bags - but that's hardly going to have affected the SP at all.