Member Info for HeadInTheSand

Much like the AVN SP is plumbing new depths every day, the self-same depths of desperation are being plumbed by GCCRa, who over the last few years has consistently being telling anyone who'd listen - and please God, for the sakes of their investment portfolio, there have been none who have - that AVN is a multibagger opportunity since the SP was £2.70...

Yikes! New all-time lows seemingly being plumbed as every day goes by?

Brad I used to work for a big internet security company. My experience tells me that there is no point skimping on an AV solution - so forget Avast (and AVG, and Eset and F-Secure and a host of others).

The two best solutions I know of are Kaspersky and Norton, with my preference being for the first, because although Putin could read every file on my PCs whenever he wants, Kaspersky is less resource-hungry than Norton. In a relatively distant third place would be McAfee.

However, the best one-off AV checker bar none is Malwarebytes. It's got its own .org domain if you want to go lookign for it and it's the utility the big AV companies' customer service divisions turn to, when their solutions can't get rid of a particularly tricky piece of malware. (Yes, that's honestly true).

It's free to run as a one-off, which is well worth doing now and then. However I'd probably not bother with the paid-for constant protection version.

The problem for AVN is that is has over $30m of costs per half - and that is BEFORE finance costs (i.e. the interest on servicing that remaining $500m debt) and before depreciation of its in-orbit assets.

You'll see why having under $30m of revenue for the most recent half reported on really doesn't look that healthy IMV.

Geesh Brad, you don't think that sudden $268m income is a one-off, specifically related to the D4E swap? This actually gave AVN an in-period exceptional gain of over $300m.

Just look at the revenue line. That's revenue, not GP. It's still floundering - not even $30m per half. Forget all other expenses - it still costs AVN around $50m per half just to service their remaining debt.

That may be what you're missing (amongst several other things).

Off the top of my head, I'd say 1) annual cash burn rates and 2) asset valuation along with attendant depreciation of such.

AL_17, whereas I share your bleak - but entirely realistic IMV - projections for AVN, it is important to be fair.

If RNSes are to be believed (a caveat one has to make, this being AIM), AVN did release notification of a commited 7 year deal totalling US$84m, to start paying out in Q4 2019 at the rate of US$3m per quarter. There should be no doubting that.

I personally think it's all far too little and far too late for AVN, given its continuing US$500m debt mountain and the millions it has frittered away chasing the entirely wrong target markets, but that just a personal view.

Again presuming this is actually going ahead (which is not a small presumption, but anyway)...

ABH can issue 500m new shares. I reckon he's going to look to (and need to) raise a few million - say £4m, to give some level of working capital at this still pre-income stage and cover relisting costs etc etc..

That'd mean (in my view) he'll need to issue all those 500m new shares at a placing value of 0.8p...

...which would then give CTAG a market cap of £8m (500m old shares and 500m new shares, which I am really not AT ALL sure it can justify).

...and which would then majorly devalue/dilute existing PIs' holdings down to that 0.8p placing leve (if ABH's claim about existing shares being pari passu equivalent is true).

But then again, if it does all happen a bit like above, maybe just maybe exisitng PIs will then be able to recover a few quid back on their long locked-in holdings?

I'm still pretty sceptical on all this, but let's see...

...which - if true (something that always has to be said when mentioning ABH) - raises a set of further important questions.

There are 474 million shares already in issue. Let's call that 500m to keep the maths easy.

Following the infamous Jersey AGM and the shameful handling of Resolution 5, Amit has the authority to issue roughly 500m new shares.

So, to the questions, all of which are very closely related, interdependent and the answers to which can thus be guessed at in any order:-

How much is Amit looking to raise with this alleged relist?

How many of the potential new 500m shares will be need to issue to do so?

At what price will be issue these new shares?

What's a realistic valuation/market cap for CTAG, given all that has gone on?

Choose your own answers.

Me personally? I can't make the above maths work. ABH must need a few million in cash, but I can't justify the resulting market cap.

I guess - as ever - we'll all just have to wait and see... presuming of course that this isn't just more CTAG BS.

AIMO.

Okay this isn't difficult - and has been discussed before when the relevant RNSes came out.

The 7 year Master Distribution Agreement with Comsat inc was announced on 28th Aug. It is not an MOU, but as an MDA it is not monetised in any way... to put it bluntly, it offers no guaranteed revenue. (Havign said that, it's exactly outfits like Comsat with its vertical market customer bases that AVN should be trying to get into bed with).

Completely separately to the above, a 7 year revenue-bearing lease agreement was announced a month later on Sep 24th. This is with a "major international satellite service provider", is worth in total US$84m and and starts delivering US$3m of revenue per quarter to AVN from Q4 2019.

The 7 year period is coincidental for sure, but there is no confirmed statement that Comsat is the party involved in the revenue-bearing lease deal... it might be a completely different party, for all we know.

As I said, already much discussed and presumably already accounted for by the market in the current SP.

CTAG's relationship with the truth? Wow!

Are CTAG and the truth dating again, then? I thought they'd had a very long and very acrimonious divorce?

What do Viasat and Comsat know that Avanti doesn't?

I'd say that with Viasat, they started off operating in a geography where satellite-delivered broadband made (and still makes) complete commercial sense. Look at the huge desire for broadband in a developed market like North America compared to how the population is scattered across a simply vast geography. There no other commercially viably deployable solution.

As for Comsat, very sensibly their focus has always been on vertical and not horizontal markets - so government, military, industrial etc etc. Again a completely sensible usage of satellite broadband.

Now compare and contrast with AVN which has spent most of its chequered history trying to convince both investors and customer that it's got a viable solution to provide mass market connectivity across a highly packed geography like Western Europe, where other technologies (like 4G and FWA) are simply massively more fit for purpose...

Now okay very recently, AVN seems to have changed its focus to go after much more appropriate low-hanging fruit - but it's very late in the day and their existing and still massive debt mountain persists as a direct result of having failed to see the writing on the wall and having chased (and having thrown megabucks at chasing) the entirely wrong rabbit for years.

The question remains - is it too little, too late?

AIMO.

Welshy88, neither. My comment was entirely based on doing a bit more of my own research very recently - which tends usually to be a useful thing.

However, it's just my personal conclusion based on what I know - so take it or leave it as you see fit.

Brad for what it's worth...

There really is no paid deramping conspiracy on this share.What'd be the point? There's no volume and no volatility - just a slow inexorable slide downwards. Rampers and derampers (such as they exist) focus in on short-term marginals... and that's certainly not AVN.

The accusation of "evil paid deramping troll!" is always trotted out by more swivel-eyed supporters of companies as their only method of explaining less than positive comment. Much easier to attempt to play the man, not the ball - if you see what I mean.

I'd personally rather see a range of posts on a share - both positive and negative - but only provided that they're well argued and reasoned. Which is why I absolutely do not agree with you re the poster who you mentioned you miss - that particular swivel-eyed zealot has been pumping this share as the best bargain ever since it was at the £2.70 level and refuses to face up to and deal with the cold hard realities of things. So the only reason he may be seen as open-minded is because there's demonstrably nothing but space between his ears.

However, each to his or her own... I'll wish you luck.

AIMO.

Brants, I don't think PIs who were for some reason persuaded to invest even more funds "pre IPO" would be too impressed if ABH was going to sit on that new money for well over a year...

So the chairman's thrown in another ten grand in an effort to engender some small positive sentiment, I see.

Nice of him, but I'm hearing that things aren't quite so rosy in Bicester when it comes to BBB's ever-shrinking core satellite customer base in W. Europe.

It's going to take one whole shedload of acquistions to mask current satellite customer churn levels, let alone show the overall customer base increase BBB has promised by end 2020...

This is a company that needs to massively and very quickly lessen its near-on total revenue dependance on satellite broadband technology that's rapidly becoming ever more not fit for purpose and irrelevant in its core Western European markets.

I would not be at all surprised if we see some more fundraising in the near- to mid-term, but this time round to finance acquisitions of alternative broadband customer bases that are NOT served by satellite. But I do wonder if BBB can do this fast enough?

AIMO.

Isn't it getting a bit tight for time, if ABH is going to make good on his latest promise and relist on NASDAQ First North in November? I believe that a 30 day period is required between the issuing of the prospectus and the shares actually being listed and tradeable?

Or is everyone expecting just another in the seemingly endless series of blithely missed - though self-set - targets?

Wishbone, it got a round of applause from me cis it made me chuckle. Always a fan of gallows humour, me.

Anyhow, in keeping with this particular topic...

"Oh, Amit's very popular Ed. The sportos, the motorheads, geeks, 5luts, bloods, waistoids, dweebies, d1ckheads--they all adore him. They think he's a righteous dude."

Those adding machines must have been shyte.

30 seconds in Excel gives 4.550497 (I went as far as 1/144 because I couldn't be bothered to scroll copy n paste any further).

I'm also surprised that the penny never dropped immediately that the series is infinite? It's very similar to the frog sat in the middle of a 64 feet diameter pond, who jumps exactly half the distance to the edge of the pond with each leap. It never manages to get out either.

This is like Countdown again...

I reckon you're wrong, MTB.

I think Brad holds around 20,000 shares at an average of £1.60 (total value to him of £32,000)

If he were to buy another £18,000 worth of shares at today's price of £0.049, that'd be a further 367,500 shares.

(Still with me?)

So he would then end up holding 387,500 shares at an average total purchase price of £50,000. That would then give him his stated sub £0.13p average.

Same 20,000 initial shareholding quantity works with his other stated averages as well.

Having said that... yep, my personal opinion is that I think he'd be nuts to average down as as well