Member Info for HeadInTheSand

Tyche, with respect, neither you nor I have the slightest clue as to the commercials behind this contract.

So-called "unlimited" satellite broadband services have historically been massively damaging to satellite operators. Both Eutelsat and SES found this out to their cost a few years back when they made such things available (briefly) in Europe, promptly kludged their networks to a crawl and had to both very quickly withdraw such offerings. It remains to be seen how Avanti and Intersat manage such an offering...

Separately, the AVN board clearly doesn't think this contract signing is material in any way with regard to the SP or expected revenue generation. Why? Because there's been no RNS... and even that recent zero monetization detail deal with Comsat attracted an RNS.

I wonder what's going on? But I don't wonder at all that this latest announcement clearly seems to have been viewed as irrelevant by the market, as far as the AVN SP goes.

An unlimited service hmm? Wonder how much that works out in revenue to AVN, either per MB transmitted or by Mbps?

Also interesting that the bird to be used allegedly is Hylas 2, not the new and shiny H4, which serves the same sub Saharan geography - at least in part.

Finally, I wonder why AVN don't apparently consider this to be worth an RNS? They're not traditionally backwards in coming forwards...

Well, Themis, perhaps you should have a word with AmitsGotThis, with whom Amit has allegedly shared such staggeringly positive information - and in writing too, apparently - that the scales have fallen from his eyes and he's all of a sudden a true believer after a miraculous 180 degree conversion, as he's been very keen to tell this BB.

I can't help wondering why ABH didn't choose to share the mystical and arcane CTAG secrets with you? Seems a tad odd? Maybe you're just unlucky or something.

Yeah, that'll be it for sure. Can't be any other possible reason...

You have a point I agree with, Tracker. It's not exactly like opening a market stall selling fruit and veg, when you can only sell on the day...

I'd agree, Beebop... a measly ten grand attempt to bolster confidence in a falling SP.

BB continue to get nuked by customers spitting blood on both Trustpilot and their own Facebook page. It's going to take a lot more than an insignificant and purely cosmetic director share purchase to fix BBB's self-imposed problems.

Just my thoughts too.

Amitsgotthis, there are a number of easily imaginable reasons as to why you've completely reversed your position and are now suddenly claiming that black is after all white. Mind you, it's nice to see that you suddenly no longer intend any irony it all in your chosen new board ID. Regardless of that...

Everyone has the right to make their own investment decisions (or not) based on whatever evidence they choose to set any store by. You all of a sudden have yours - and I continue to have mine. Both of those things are completely allowable - it's called "having the right to an opinion".

One of us will end up being right on CTAG. Either I'll be shown to have missed out on an opportunity by choosing not to invest any more, or you'll be shown to have been a mug for having invested more (presuming you actually genuinely have). It's literally that binary.

As before, if this turns out well (finally), I'm happy to eat humble pie. And if it doesn't, I won't be at all surprised - but I certainly won't be gloating either.

And if so, based on what level of existing share consolidation?

475 million shares in issue at time of de-list.... with no consolidation that would give an MCAP of c. £24 million... and that's without CTAG issuing any more shares at all, which it is of course going to do (and presumably plenty of them).

And I ought to add, AmitsGotThis, that you posted this just a month ago...

========================

Amitsgotthis CTAG RE: Just a recap 19 Jul '18

"HITS I can assure you Dougb has zero evidence, hes spoken to Amit on the phone, the same call that myself and many many other PIs have had.

Amit is on the scrounge and dropping names like confetti, he will not put anything in black and white, it is screaming desperation.

Come on Dougb tell us how much extra you have put in....... didn't think so, I would be too embarrassed too"

========================

...so I'm a little confused as to why you're recommending that anyone should bother speaking with Amit, when you clearly think that to do so is such a complete waste of time - and when you were ripping into other PIs for considering coming up with more of their cash to invest?

Yet another oddity in the world of CTAG...

AGT (aka Mr U Turn), strangely, I prefer to invest on the basis of facts - or at least something committed to writing, rather than more mere verbals from a source that repeatedly hasn't proved to be exactly reliable, when it comes to his statements and predictions..

However, I'll wish you every success with whatever your latest decision is re CTAG - and I'll be the first to eat humble pie if this all comes good.

Speaking of which, has anyone seen confirmation that in-orbit testing of Hylas 4 has been completed successfully? I think that was meant to take a max of 90 days?

As MatttheNovice says, there is an argument - which I expect is being used - that in order for existing PIs to have any chance of any return, CTAG needs to relist, but that CTAG doesn't have the funds required to pay the expenses of relisting, so in order to have any chance of a return, PIs need to put in more of their- hard-earned. Or they'll guarantee themselves sweet FA.

That doesn't seem to stack up to any serious scrutiny and is of course the exact same tactic - literally identical - as used in classic "I'm the nephew of a Ghanaian prince, who needs your help in getting $50m out of the country, for which you'll be paid 20% of the sum, once out" emails. They too keep coming back for more "almost there - just need a little more".

However, who knows? Maybe it is all above board and kosher, no matter how unlikely that seems - but personally, I'm not putting another penny in, based on no more than ABH promises (and not even committed to writing) .

Can I just ask a very basic question here?

What information is Amit/CTAG offering in order to inspire PIs to invest more, pre any prospectus?

The answer seems to be... none.

Normally when someone has something to sell, it's quite usual to explain why it would be a desirable purchase.

I just cannot get my head around this invitation to invest pre-IPO... on the basis of what? Is there even any guarantee that the IPO will happen?

CTAG seems to operate in a completely parallel reality where up is down and none of the normal rules apply - and some people are just accepting this like it's absolutely fine and run of the mill. That's seriously twisting my melon, man.

That really and absolutely is a gambler's choice and takes the expression "chasing one's losses" to a whole new level...

Gaffy, given that there seems to be a minimum MCAP criterion of £10m for listing on NFN (I've not checked this personally, though), I simply went with Amit looking to hit that £10m MCAP. Anything greater than that at this stage would look to be utter pie in the sky, given CTAG's reputation and history - and ABH will need a bloody good story to justify even that valuation.

IMV, to get to £10m MCAP at relist, he'd need to issue out all the new shares he's got authority over and take the overall shares in issue up to a billion. A billion shares and an MCAP of £10 million? That'd be a penny a share - less any discount offered on placing, so those extra 525 million shares might raise CTAG c. £4.3m... IF buyers can be found, even presuming a necessarily heavy incentivising discount.

And then as you also say, there'd need to be a big consolidation to hit the other alleged NFN criterion... somewhere around 50:1.

So, to rework your example... if someone had a million shares at time of original delist that had cost them the 5p you used in your workings (£50,000), they might end up with 20,000 new shares at 50p each post consolidation (£10,000).

Not at all great, but better than where we are today.

Mind you, I just can't see this happening - especially the rumoured pre-IPO offer to raise the alleged £400k (presumably needed to cover relisting costs?)

All utterly IMO.

Not a million miles away from my thinking, Gaffy. I allowed for a detrimentally negative effect on the overall valuation/MCAP owing to the company's chequered history and so came up with 1p a share, a total fundraise of around £4.4m (allowing for placing discounts) and a 50:1 consolidation.

JSmith, that all depends (obviously) on whether you believe the future for the company is rosy or bleak.

Is BBB currently bargain of the year or is it in a right and worrying state?

Pick your own potato - I know what my money's on...

Rom, good to see that some take a realistic view, rather than latching onto the smallest thing and trying to ramp it out of the park.

Conceptually, today's RNS is a good thing - it shows at least some level of interest in some of H4's capacity - and as you rightly point out, tying up with an organisation already approved to sell into a pretty tightly controlled sector is again a good thing.

However, the issue with MDAs is that the monetization of them is again in the hands of eventual potential end customers - and it looks like there's zero financial commitment required from Comsat (if there had been, it would have been announced).

So my view? Not a bad thing - but there's no guaranteed meat on that bone. Which probably explains the "underwhelming" reaction of the market, again as you rightly put it - the real world is just a teensy bit different from the "I now expect the SP to be about to double!" dribblings from the usual swivel-eyed suspects.

You'd think that the zealots would do better - I mean even a broken watch is right twice a day...

Erm.... just to correct the maths.

Suppose there are 500m CTAG shares in current issue (I know that number's not right, but it's close enough to make the maths easy).

Then to achieve an apparent mandatory £10m market cap, those shares would have to be valued at 2p each.

But that fails to hit the apparent equally mandatory individual share value (call it 50p, again to keep the maths easy), so there'd need to be a 25:1 share consolidation, as FosterE points out.

If all achieved, that would then leave CTAG with 20 million shares in issue at 50p each and all apparently mandatory criteria fulfilled.

Except... we already know that ABH is avidly looking to raise more money, even pre any relisting. That presumably would have to result in the issuance and sale of even more shares. From memory, Amit got the authority with his notorious "show of hands" Resolution 5 to issue absolutely shedloads more, but God alone knows at what price (if any) he'd try to punt those out at and God alone knows what effect doing that would have on the above numbers and calculations.

JSmith, I personally am not surprised in the least, unfortunately - for all the reasons that I and a few others have posted (with a little evidence, too).

Looks like the BBB Sales Director was absolutely right to bail out with his share options when he did - but then of course he'd be fully aware of what's going on internally and whether the SP was liable to rise, hold or fall. That was the first of a number of recent and not particularly minor red flags...

AIMO.