Member Info for HeadInTheSand

Of course that £2.5m has to be ignored - it''s not a liquid or deployable asset. It's effectively cash that has been pre-assigned to a future expense and that's exactly why the OGA will insist on it being ringfenced, should the deal be signed off.

In buying Saltfleetby for a quid and getting £2.5 million into the bargain, ANGS took on both the asset (whatever that's worth) AND the liability for the decommissioning from the seller. The latter was obviously happy to get the asset and associated liability off its books and hands for a cost of £2.5 million, which does make one think...

The only way that Saltfleetby is going to work commercially for ANGS is if it can be made to produce with greatly reduced OpEx. But that won't become clear for months and months...

Well, the one thing that people can be sure of is that, if blatant short-term swing traders like DHC rush back in here ramptastically, they are looking to sell.

TwoFacedCoin is back spouting a number of this favourite myths, namely:-

1. The company's already funded for the next year... nope. All Georgie L said was "the forthcoming months". No reference to a number, let alone 12.

2. The extremely short-term flowtest at Balcombe and reference to 3000 (or maybe 1580) bopd... nope. Andrew Hollis stated that ANGS would be "delighted" with just 300 bopd out of Balcombe. With that piddly amount, it's pretty much immaterial if that represents ANGS's hoped for share, or whether it's the hoped for total output.

3. Reference to planning application being submitted for a Balcombe reprise "not being far off now"... great. So how come ANGS has already missed its self-imposed end Aug deadline for submitting this? (Ignoring the fact that they should never have let it lapse in the first place).

4. Trying to make out that Saltfleetby is worth 4p a ahare on its own, and is just waiting to have the taps turned back on... nope, it's really not as simple as TwoFaced would desperately have everyone believe. For starters, there's currently zero clarity on the OGA insisting that decommissioning costs are held in escrow.

Both Balcombe and Saltfleetby are gambles that won't get truth tested until mid 2020 IMO. But regardless of that, expect plenty of PI pickpocketing ramptastic acton from DHC and his ilk before that point. Such is AIM...

What we obviously need to spark things off is for TwoFacedCoin to come in here with some utterly transparent blather about how entry tickets for the imminent Balcombe ride are so incredibly cheap...

Oh for God's sakes. Eurofil is expressing his sincere hatred of day traders...

Really?

Eurofil: ANGS Today at 08:33
"If you are invested here your only enemy is the de ramping greedy day traders who constantly post to drive the share price lower for their own greedy gains."

Eurofil: INDV 19th July 2019 at 13:42
"Same here my old investment buddy, invested heavily in this one now and great for daily trade while we wait for a verdict."

I tell you, the standard of hustling on LSE BBs used to at least be halfway competent. This is just pathetic.

Power, IMO that depends. There may well be a few ballsy day traders looking for a dead cat bounce and a quick in and out marginal gain (we've seen a few of those swings over the last week or so).

Ignoring the flippers having their fun, any remaining PIs looking to sell out may do so between now and COB on Tues 17th. We may see a final small rush for the door and a consequent dip before AVN delists... or maybe all PIs wishing to exit from this depressing pile of *** have already bolted, just leaving the very brave to soldier on into largely untradeable private land.

Mind you, it's not like the existing SP could get vastly lower...

Light positivity from genuine (and long-suffering) long-term holders I think everyone would be fine with.

But blatantly ramptastic day traders banging on in their efforts to turn a quick 10% on a fast in and out... who needs that?

I mean I can happily have a grudging respect for a good and skilful hustler... but this is playground stuff.

Well, let's look at just a couple of prior comments to establish people's credibility/agendas...

Eurofil ANGS 17th July 19: "Next stop 3p." (Mid price at time of posting 1.925p)

Eurofil ANGS 17th July 19: "2.5p. That's my forecast for tomorrow" (Tomorrow's price actually fell to 1.6p).

...and endless positivity - "screaming buy"... "great knowledgeable management team"... "strong fundamentals" - ever since.

I wonder why my ramptastic alert siren has just gone off? Possibly Eurofil's actual strategy is more apparent on this recent comment from him on INDV:-

Eurofil INDV 19th July 19: "...invested heavily in this one now and great for daily trade while we wait for a verdict."

Gee... "daily trade", huh? Whoever woulda thought Eurofil was into day trading and fast flipping? What a huge surprise...

It is without a doubt progress... except sadly and not unexpectedly downwards. In fact, in the exact opposite direction that blinkered zealots like GCCRa kept assuring everyone that AVN would go in.

Is it just me or has GCCRa been a tad noticeable by his absence over the last couple of weeks? Surely he could pop in and promise everyone "Jam tomorrow! Massive multibag buy opportunity!" one last time just for old time's sakes?

Let's face it, long-suffering AVN PIs could do with a laugh, even if a very bitter one...

Croc, each to their own, I guess. Sure, the way you lay out the process is the way it's *meant* to happen - and I'd love to think like you do and believe in the existence of tight "MAR regulation"... but it's just that I see no sign of it.

In the event of a placing, all too often, the SP very rapidly falls below the placing price and PIs keep asking bewildered questions like "why aren't all the institutional investors who've just taken part in the placing seriously peed off?" It's pretty obvious what's occurred in such situations.

I suppose that either I'm too cynical or you're too optimistic. Vive la difference, I guess.

gkb, I don't deny that shorting - and much more likely spread betting - does go on on AIM. Having said that, I don't believe that there's well-organised and co-ordinated deramping action in support of shorting/spread betting from multiple IDs on bulletin boards.

As to MM games, sure, MMs are only interested in the marginal profits they can earn - but they don't have the continually ongoing effects on share prices that they're so often accused of.

Both of the above are just convenient excuses used by the uber-positive (whether genuine or self-serving) to "explain away" a low share price.

Now forward selling in advance of a placing is a different thing altogether and I agree, absolutely does occur. It's as you know all nudge nudge, wink wink, tipping off one's mates. As you and anyone else with any experience of AIM will already know, this is the way it goes all too often.

Say a company's SP is 1.00p. It needs cash and so is going to raise a placing at say 0.9p in say two weeks' time. The company tips off its mates, who agree to subscribe to and cover off the placing.

Out come a load of puff and bluster RNSes from the company, Accompanying this swathe of "good news" and positivity, you get a load of rampity-ramptastic bulletin board activity from the shills (and ironically joined in with by long-suffering genuine PIs desperate to cling onto and repeat any alleged good news) looking to spike the SP up to say 1.1p. As this happens, the mates busily forward sell into this unjustified spike...

...And then the placing is announced at 0.9p and the SP immediately crashes down to say 0.8p.

Nett result? The BoD is happy (they've got their salaries funded for a while longer), their mates are happy (they've made a zero risk 10-15% over 2 weeks), the Nomad's happy (he signed off on the RNSes without checking, because he continue to trouser his retainer and got taken to the Ivy for a long liquid lunch) and the paid BB rampers are happy (they've earned their crust on retainer).

And we all know who's left really unhappy and holding the bag...

Rinse and repeat, all over AIM, all the time.

Just IMO... of course.

Alan...

"Normally with an investment you just have to worry about trolls in cafes, weirdos in lay-bys, failed curtain sellers, paid derampers,......yet we experienced I don't think another company has gone through (feel free to bring up other corporate disasters). "

As gkb has pointed out, AIM is absolutely littered with unscrupulous lifestyle-funding "jam tomorrow" companies that spend their time misleading PIs to a disgraceful level.

There are undoubtedly derampers that knock around on bulletin boards such as LSE, but in my very firm opinion, these types aren't in any way organised or paid - they're simply day traders trying to get a cheaper entry point for a quick profitable flip. Think TwoFacedCoin here as a classic ANGS example.

However, those positive on any given stock (whether genuinely so or not... see below) will often trot out the myth of the Evil Global Shorting Conspiracy (tm) to discredit and "explain away" more negative opinion expressed o any share - that myth is trotted out as often as the "sneaky market makers going for a tree shake and holding the SP back" myth.

Where you *do* see concerted action on bulletin boards is from those looking to ramp stocks for their own self-interested purposes. Less scrupulous companies even occasionally engage with professional BB rampers in attempts to get an SP spiking up (usually just before a placing). I wish I could remember the AIM company involved, but court documents were submitted as evidence in a recent case, including emails showing blatantly clear collusion between the CEO and a paid BB ramper. So this absolutely does go on.

And it is of course a win-win for such companies,because genuine long-suffering PIs tend to automatically join in with such bogus positivity and look to drown out any negativity, because they believe they're "defending" their share and investment. It becomes a self-sustaining cycle.... until of course the balloon eventually goes pop and everyone can see the emperor's new clothes (or lack of them). But by that time, the rampers have long gone and the BoD and their mates have trousered tens of thousands of pounds, all at the expense of PIs.

I've even seen occasions where CEOs have used genuine PIs to unknowingly ramp for them, by dropping them fake tidbits of "news" over a private email conversation, knowing that the PI will then without a doubt spread the word out on bulletin boards. Neat way to get round any of the fact-checking that's meant to be applied to any RNS before release, eh?

Mind you, if any AIM investor thinks that Nomads - who, let's not forget, have a regulatory duty to be there as guardians of PIs' interests and to ensure the accuracy and veracity of any info released via RNS - actually do this job with any diligence whatsoever, then they're deranged. AIM truly is a cesspit - and ANGS handling of the Brockham cluster**** is just the latest in a long LONG line of near-identical examples.

Just IMO... of course.

TBF, I doubt that any Brockham residents care a damn about ANGS any more - providing of course that the company's got the money put aside to tidy up after its resounding own goal cluster**** there.

And the way they're dilly-dallying over Balcombe, residents there probably aren't too nervous either.

Despite all the puff and bluster from ANGS about possible outcomes of jam at some misty point in the future from Balcombe, the one thing that sticks in the mind - and the one thing that some are doing their level best to make everyone forget - is the words of ANGS's Technical Director, Andrew Hollis, during the conference call.

At that time, he categorically and clearly stated that ANGS "would be delighted" if Balcombe could be made to flow at 300 bopd.

One would think that he might know what he was talking about - even if the rest of the ANGS BoD no doubt wished they could have thoroughly gagged him before this utterance...

Typo correction... "Tell holders when you'll achieve even a neutral Earnings After Interest position..."

PS.

AVN's recent insistence on forecasting a "positive EBITDA" as not being too far away absolutely does NOT impress me - in fact I consider this as weasel words. For a company in AVN's dire situation, achieving a "positive EBITDA" is literally meaningless, because of the massive and cash-draining significance of that capital I.

Tell holders when you'll achieve even a neutral EBI... that'd be a worthwhile prediction to make. Anything else is just smoke and mirrors.

Dawn, a couple of things....

"So, do we believe that the share price should really be less than 10% of the net asset value"

The obvious answer to that is yes, that's exactly what the market currently believes. It demonstrably values AVN at just £11m. You of course may differ.

"The recent progress is real." IMO it's much more accurate to say that the recent change in strategy is real - but to date and as clearly evidenced by yesterday's results, it's not delivered any tangible results. Yesterday's figures are as poor as usual.

"...if they can perform like they say they will."

Heh. If all AIM companies performed like their BoDs say they will and all always delivered on the jam tomorrow that is invariably promised as being just around the corner, we'd all be millionaires. Plus, if AVN goes off-market as it's certain to, how will PIs ever really be able to find out how it's doing? And how easy will it be for PIs to realise any concrete value out of their share holdings?

Dan it is indeed true that D&A don't affect cash at all.

Unfortunately the same absolutely cannot be said for that big fat capital I... interest, aka finance cost.

Forget gross profit. AVN's bloody sales revenues still don't even cover interest due on borrowings (and that's ignoring both cost of sales and opex) - and that's after having halved their historic debt.

Uninvestable.

Just one simple question.... after today's utterly unsurprising half year figures, how on God's green earth can this be considered "progress"?

Revenues... $30.2m
Costs... $36.9m
EBITDA... $6.7m loss.

Not great and pretty much same old, same old. But then we have the two ongoing big nasties, namely Depreciation & Amortisation and then Finance Costs.

D&A... - $27.9m
Finance Costs... - $34.0m

Giving us the usual stellar and eye-watering result of a $68.1 million loss before taxation.

This company is uninvestable. No wonder the BoD want to stop having to air their dirty laundry in public and are desperate to take AVN private and off-market. Let's face it, they're hardly going to be able to raise any meaningful funding through the issuance of yet more near-on worthless shares.

Progress? Don't make me laugh.

Cheated TBF, that comment - although totally fair - applies to the old David Williams regime. Unfortunately it seems that Kyle Whitehill for all his smarts, can't pull this iron out of the fire (hardly surprising, considering the terminal profligacy of the previous BoD).

Mind you, who are the fools? How much did Williams walk away with? It was an eight figure number - and guess who paid for it?

Bang on correct, Ja51.

Hollis is on public record during the recent conference call as saying that ANGS would be "delighted" if Balcombe is eventually persuaded to flow at 300 bopd.

This is the indisputable fact that TwoFacedCoin keeps forgetting to mention as he assures everyone that Balcombe is "the jewel in the crown"... he instead keeps trying to point people at much earlier and very short term (2 hours maybe?) flowtest figures.

Hardly a jewel in the crown then. More like costume jewellery - and even that won't be truth-tested until well into 2020.

TwoFacedCoin - you seriously need to polish up your hustling routines. Your current schtick is frankly just embarrassingly obvious.