Member Info for HawaiifiveO

I am a strong buyer at current levels, it is a gift with sector sentiment improving.

Very pleased with this, an up front payment and now Sino - an alluvial contractor that has delivered at XTR's Manica for over a year - now contracted to work the entire claim.

This is just the start, I am expecting more news imminently on the Hard Rock and possibly the jewel project Fairbride.

£3m market cap is farcical, more-so now the sector is showing green shoots of recovery.

Nothing clever in predicting 'sell on the news' brigade, it happens all the time on AIM, this will cross 1p very very shortly IMO, from there, news dependent, we could see 2p+

They are clearly ramping up PR - it looks nailed on this will be a great recovery play, the long term debt looks like it will be re-structured, in my view that is not in doubt.

Over $250m spent on the project to date with a market cap of circa $25m - there is significant room for upside.

It is getting harder to buy, the cheap stock has cleared, can see this returning 1p and on-to 2p-3p in the reasonble short term. By year end this could well be trading at 7p-8p circa £150m m/cap.

Looks cheap

I can see this recovering to around 1p quite quickly, it has been heavily oversold, sentiment has turned, the recent RNS was the catalyst.

The synopsis is from last year, they have not updated, I would not read anything into it.

Bird talked about new projects (Zimbabwe) at the AGM but he said, clearly, only when Xtract paper was worth something, at that time the share price was 1.4p.

I think we may get the alluvial update this week, news could be rich from herein.

It was Poland they talked about re a new project in the March presentation evening, interesting times ahead.

Looks like sentiment may about to turn here, Carver gone and a new member on the BOD with O&G experience, interesting he has experience in Poland, this was the address that AST were looking at in March when the investor event took place.

Can see investors gradually dipping their toe back in the water at AST.

The cash position was not as bad as many thought either.

News could come at any time, it could come from both of ORR's main projects Cameroon and Senegal, the last RNS rose the share price by 30%, could see 50%+ next time around.

Have to be in it to win it.

Thank you for your clarification and calculations, it will be interesting to see what comes from the imminent Q4 update.

Another aspect concerning news is Colin Bird will be attending the UK Investor Show, this year it is slightly earlier (late March) I am convinced he will want to deliver something meaningful before having to face shareholders given the share price performance.

He claimed at the AGM he saw no reason for the fall from 2.8p to 1.3p, he took some considerable flack at that meeting so goodness knows what shareholders will say to him in March unless he delivers some material news.

For a number of reasons I remain more optimistic than for a very long time.

Surely the major upside comes from Hard Rock upcoming production, Bird said that would start in Q1, if so that will be new revenue stream. I also note he has now decided to 'attack' the low hanging fruit whereas before he was being more selective on the Hard Rock.

On the alluvials the production trend has been rising however, once again, the news that will excite is new contractors being appointed, perhaps now that XTR is getting an increased % he will do a deal with newbies.

Obviously the jackpot for shareholders would be some deal on Fairbride, Bird has been very quiet so is anything cooking I wonder?

The fall from 3p last year (£10m m/cap) to current has been overdone, XTR still has the same projects, I am becoming more optimistic this may re-rate/recover faster then one or two other juniors in my portfolio.

So I was reading this right, over 300oz of gold in storage in Mozambique which has not been sold, I recall Bird saying at the AGM there was $200k worth of gold in Mozambique as well as the then declared cash balance.

One thing Bird does have ability is is running companies very tightly so the cash position, stated at £1m on July 1st, could still be quite healthy.

After a period of total blackout on the news front since October I do believe we are about to get a couple of juicy RNS's over the next few weeks. My bet is news is leaking hence why the uptick in the share price combined with increasing volumes.

Can see the shares continuing to recover.

Q4 production news is imminent but it does seem that XTR are storing gold.

Over the last 3 quarters Xtract share of gold produced equaled - 1176 oz
Yet gold sold was - 848oz

It seems they have 328oz of stored gold, that equates to a net cash sum to XTR of circa $150k

So will Q4 be a bumper cash receipt quarter for the company?

Interest is building here, there were many 'big hitting' investors in this stock just before the Beaufort collapse, taking shares around 2.85p in the last placing, my bet is these guys will start to average down if there is more traction in the share price.

Buying in any size here is quite problematic, the market size is often less than 50k of shares, rarely can you buy more than £5k on-line.

I think the market realizes the drop from £11m market cap to under £3m, at one point, was way overdone.

I will continue to add.

There was a clear chart breakout yesterday from the 8 month downtrend, I honestly believe this will motor ahead now, hard to put a target for the share price other than saying it was 3p in January last year.

Momentum should build as the sector continues to recover from last years woeful performance.

Gold looks like going through $1300 shortly, this combined with long awaited news from Xtract can only be bullish.

Alluvial Q4 production numbers are imminent, the earliest they have been reported historically are on the 16th, so possibly next week.

In all a good time to add or buy in.

I can see a steady recovery in the share price, it could get back to 2p quite quickly if we get the long awaited news that the Ex Chairman has been promising for an age.

I have a feeling we will get Q4 alluvial gold production results next week, there has been a rising production trend - we now have a slightly higher % share of revenues as well.

Having looked at volume, I noticed the fall from 1.75 to current was on exceptionally low volume, some 'sells' appear to be so small (under 5k of shares) it does make you wonder if someone was profiting from the drop. I suspect this position is now clear as it has been pretty hard to buy over the last few sessions.

All in all I think this may move back up quite quickly and could even surprise.

For the first time in a long age the market seems to have an appetite for this stock, the market makers were happy to mark up quickly on modest demand, always a good sign.

I can see 3p coming very quickly as a consequence, note the brokers had targets of 15p last year.

I am in no doubt XTR will recover with the sector, already the juniors are looking perky and starting to recover, tentatively, from their horrific 2018 falls.

Whilst this BB is quite rightly annoyed with the drop in the share price and the lack of developments we are not alone. If you read just about any junior resource company's discussion boards they are filled with angry shareholders pummeling the management and blaming just about anything for the loss of wealth.

I am convinced by the end of Q1 and into Q2 many of these bashed down stock prices will have recovered strongly, last year 1m shares in XTR was worth £30k the same stock now can be bought for £6500. The clues are in the historic volume numbers, the 70% fall was on low volumes, it will rise equally in the same fashion.

I have bought a few more over recent weeks for the reasons above - news must be coming.

A reversal will come here that is nailed on, look at EUZ today, up 50% on no news, they need money as well.

Bird has stated that we will get news on a number of fronts this quarter, the alluvial production numbers will be with us, potentially, within 7-10 days.

I have no idea what the man is doing, all his companies are way down from last year, only Jubilee who is basically run by Leon, has held up reasonably well.

It is woeful to watch the fall in value here, it is based on low volumes, remember sentiment can turn in a flash on AIM. XTR is not alone in the value destruction stakes so it's not company specific.

All we need here is news and some of Bird's promises to come to fruition.

I think those buying in around current levels could benefit on two counts, a sector recovery and updates that could deliver a re-rate.

A lesson for inexperienced investors, when bulletin boards become invested with bashers it is usually a great time to buy!

Buy for recovery is the theme

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