Member Info for HawaiifiveO

Just as I thought, a distressed seller, the company would be forced to RNS any material changes, looks like a great opportunity if true.

Volume today is still under 2% of the company's issued capital - therein lies the clue.

I have taken a batch of stock on the basis I believe there is a distressed seller, this has happened before in MTL and once cleared the SP has recovered

As it stands the company is valued at only £13m with around £95m of debt but the gold price rise gives MTL plenty of headroom to reduce debt faster than previously expected - producing 80,000 oz this year at current gold prices throws off around $10m per quarter free cash.

Yes it's a gamble based on the D4E outcome but on valuation metrics the company looks cheap even accounting for that debt.

Fingers crossed.

I am convinced MTL would have issued news if there was anything that materially effects the company - my bet is there has been a distressed seller, maybe they have now cleared.

Barely 1.5% of the company traded to date - could be a great top up/entry opportunity.

Is it a distressed seller or is it D4E related - if anything material is going on the company must update, at the moment no statement and monetary volumes are still pretty low (£150k) given the % move.

I re-iterate the last RNS should not have contained that D4E statement unless there was clarity on it at the same time - it is in the lap of the gods as to buy or sell due to the uncertainty.

80,000oz pa gold producer valued at £15m with debt of £95m = EV of £110m

Comparable peer 80,000pa producers are valued at £140m - £180m

Is someone in the know re D4E or is it simply a distressed seller ?

The shares traded above 3p in early 2018 to value XTR at £11m with 350m shares issued, the current market cap is circa £4m with 450m shares issued.

The current price is bargain basement, we all know the share price moves quickly on modest volumes, a re-rate to 1.5p-1.9p range is justified on the oversold status alone, including a bombed out RSI, volumes should increase as major news is imminent.

Not many shares will be bought sub 1p IMO, the market makers will see to that.

I remember Bird saying in November if only he had more money to pursue the opportunity in Zambia via drilling. It is pretty clear something is in the mix, a asset sale of Fairbride + retaining a royalty is one way of delivering his goals.

John Meyer states the obvious by saying at current gold prices indebted companies can pay down their debt much faster than anticipated.

It obvious but at MTL the £20m valuation is so low it is staggering, a massive opportunity for upside here.

https://audioboom.com/posts/7521792-live-company-group-and-john-meyer-on-coronavirus-and-commodities

Bird has always said he wanted to restore value for shareholders since the Nelson debacle, what better than an outright project sale, worth noting his recent purchases and the fact that Sanderson Capital picked up 15% of the company.

He has gone very quiet on Manica, prefers to speak about Zambia where I feel he is more at home doing business, he may also be frustrated by the valuation placed on Xtract. It is rather rare for Colin Bird to place a timeline in a RNS so is that a clue ?

I tend to agree about a deal and it makes sense, would offer shareholders significant upside from current bombed out levels and provide cash for the potential blue sky projects in Zambia.

Hard to find much information on Mutapa Mining other than they seem to have been around a long time and look credible, from their website they say...………

'Mutapa Mining & Exploration Services aims to pick up projects at the early/middle stages and develop the projects - there are lots of good projects out there but they do not conform to JORC, SAMREC or other internationally recognized codes'

It is clear they are looking for new projects in Africa but the criteria is these projects must be of a certain standard with JORC category resources, well Fairbride certainly fits their mission statement.

So is a sale on the cards, minimum purchase price is $20m

Now moving ahead strongly $1635oz - this is great news for MTL - farcical market valuation of £20m

I have been thinking long and hard about this ever since it was declared the major shareholders acquired the bank debt.

We would all agree that the debt belonged to the PLC so I am mystified as to why the exact deal was not declared to the market as surely this was price sensitive, for example, if the company owed the banks $65m and a part came along and bought it for $45m then that would be deemed price sensitive.

I am staggered the Nomad has not demanded the detail of the transaction to be made clear, it is market sensitive, the terms of the deal should not remain confidential, I am also annoyed as to the D4E statement in the recent operations update, this has been a red flag and buyers/sellers are in the dark as to whether they are acting correctly.

Unless the debt restructure announcement comes PDQ I am mindful to contact the Nomad with my concerns - I cannot see how this VERY important information can be withheld to the market. In fact the major shareholders have a distinct advantage over the other 33% holders.

I put this out for consideration, anyone who has contact with the company may like to re-iterate this matter, in the past everyone was on a level playing field because the ongoing statement 'debt restructure negotiations remain ongoing'

Obviously minority shareholders have been thankful for the support of the major shareholders but circumstances have changed operationally, as has the gold price. This has to be taken into consideration.

Views appreciated.

The offer moves swiftly to 1.2p for only 600,000 shares, around £7k, with IG, I wonder if there is a background buyer.

Leo_IX

You assume that the D4E will be negative for shareholders, who knows, my view is this should not have been included in the Q4 operations statement - they have never before mentioned anything about their debt situation, they could have easily said 'discussions on debt reschedule continue' etc.

My view is the market has over reacted, there is some thought behind a Convertible Note being issued to the new owners of the debt (the major shareholders) if this is the route then the share price will rally strongly.

I find the whole matter poorly handled, one has to ask why this uncertainty was put out there in the 1st instance, I sincerely hope they finalise matters ASAP for the benefit of all stakeholders.

In the meantime I still see no significant selling that justifies the near 50% drop in the share price.

Lots of chat around how people that have placed spread bets to the upside on stocks are now having to settle margin calls, this results in other stocks that have done reasonably well are being sold.

I think once the dust has settled buyers who are brave enough to enter the market now will do well. As mentioned I have added here as well as another gold producer (AAZ) at what I consider to be basement prices.

I have added, hard to believe this has fallen nearly 50% since those outstanding results, the RSI is bombed out and there is a triple bottom in place currently, the shares have not been this low since early December.

Looks oversold

What a fantastic RNS that last one was, record production and revenues, so why oh why drop that debt for equity suggestion without concise information linked to it.

D4E should not have been included as it was obvious it would unsettle the market, it is almost as like someone was worried about the share price running far higher, now I wonder who that might be !

In my view Mr Bowden's first mistake in a otherwise unblemished time as CEO.

The matter needs clarity ASAP.

I am hoping to attend the meeting and have informed by broker accordingly - nominee holders need to inform to be able to attend and vote.

What galls me is that Riverfort who have provided sod all by way of cash via the equity share funding deal have manged to retain ALL of their remaining shares, 240m in fact, surely these should have been cancelled but no. I bet they will vote in favour of all of the motions.

I only hold a modest monetary value of shares compared to some here, and believe I will be able to re-coup some value, there will always be a spike in AIM shares and AST will be no different, but I want to see these guys and give them some 'commentary'

I think the whole episode is a lesson in failure, a BOD who had no clue being replaced by a BOD who, to say the least, is controversial and seems to have no regard for private investors. The recent podcast with Ben Turney and Tom Winnifrith on Share P concerning the antics of a fellow due to be appointed as a Non Exec at AST is very revealing indeed. Have a listen folks, you will hear about one AIM O&G company who felt it appropriate to pay $25,000 for a bottle of wine !

Andrew4444

I have to say I find your posts somewhat annoying to say the least, you have a lot to say on this BB, more than most, but you are inconsistent, I conclude you post according to your (short term) position.

On the one hand you suggest the alluvial performance/income is not relevant but on the other you ram it down every readers throats implying how bad it could be.

Everyone knows alluvial production is a sideshow, let it be for goodness sake, what we are all waiting for is for Bird to start delivering something meaningful in respect of the Hard Rock gold project. In my view Bird is going through one of his silence periods in general, he has been silent on GLR and BZT also.

When I met Bird in November he looked totally shattered and was basically perched in the cloakroom area of the Proactive event with coats flapping around his ears, it was the first time I have seen him in such a state, I was actually worried about his health, he could not wait to leave, in fact he departed without even telling his wife and secretary who anxiously pursued him.

In H2 last year there was a podcast where he said he was looking to bring in new management, he seemed rather determined, can it be assumed there is a disposal on the way and this is why the new management has not be put in place I wonder. This aspect is probably more exciting to ponder than continual debate about the alluvial income being good or bad in my view.

Very disappointed by the SP performance but on IG if you want to buy £5000 of shares in one go you will have to pay .50p and £8000 will cost .65p - it is clear the market is taking this down on tiny volumes.

Clearly there is a need for cash but the preferred route for minnows like Kazera is by Convertible Loan Notes - this does not dilute equity immediately and stops the forward selling game that go on with placings.

Hopefully news soon, especially on the new trading arm.