Member Info for HawaiifiveO

Grenade

It appears the Q&A session appeared to be vetted, there were many questions in the Q&A box, some were not asked at all despite there being plenty of allowed time left, the event ended around 15 minutes early.

One question was about Iamgold and why Oriole had not informed the market about the drilling halt resulting in a 3-4 month delay wait on results. They had only drilled 1300m out of 10000m and then stopped, did Oriole management know about this?

Another question was about funding and why they needed to raise so much cash in the placing after suggesting earlier in the year the spend would be modest in Cameroon, also asking if their was a ulterior motive.

I also found it strange the CFO asked questions and these were answered ahead of investor questions.

I take the conclusion that Oriole management do not want tricky questions being asked live as the event is recorded and these questions may put off prospective buyers of the stock which defeats the object of the presentation.

In my view if they do not answer investor questions with time remaining then it is poor form, the ones that were asked were answered fully and comprehensively however.

At current gold prices every company CEO should be moving mountains to get into production via any means possible, this works both ways, if there is underutilised plant nearby the operator will be wanting to ramp up production by any means possible.

The interview tells me all I need to know, combined with book5's posts on AD$FN Mark Child has been to Nicaragua recently, has met the Minister, has talked about quotes for explosives etc and has re-iterated the toll mining option in the latest presentation.

In a nutshell it looks like toll mining is on, question is when will it be announced ??

It has been exceptionally hard to buy Condor for most of the day, even limit orders do not seem to work, the market seems to know something IMO.

Poster 'book5' has posted links to photos taken today or yesterday of new equipment and personnel from 'Explotec ' he suggests they are linked to a possible toll mining deal.

It does seem something material could be announced.

DYOR etc

I have to say I concur, I have cut down posting as this once knowledgeable bulletin board has been taken over by certain individuals who are posting utter clap trap on a regular basis.

The shares have slightly underperformed my expectations as I felt a trading range of 2p to 2.5p would be maintained until further updates from the company. I think the equity portion of the valuation should be in the £40m-£50m at those prices, at current levels MTL is a buy in my view.

I would add that since the vaccine news last week cash seems to have been withdrawn from the small/mid cap mining space, money has been chasing main index stocks and certain COVID plays that have been bashed down, the gold price has also been wobbly.

If we get a decent update from MTL I fully believe the shares will burst though 3p quickly.

Has anyone compared the consideration Bird paid for Bushranger to other deals AIM juniors are acquiring in Australia, most are paying a fraction of the price, look at the low cost deals RRR and POW have done in country, the most recent Aussie licence acquisition was by ORPC .

https://www.investegate.co.uk/oracle-power-plc--orcp-/rns/acquisition-of-highly-prospective-gold-projects/202011160700073462F/

ORCP paid £90k cash and issued 42m shares (worth circa £220k) with the same number of warrants with a strike of 1.1p - double the current share price. Their project is close to a world class gold mine.

Bird handed the sellers of the Bushranger licence 100m shares, a consideration of £1.25m, that is a high priced bet that may or not pay off, Bird thinks the deal is a great one, if so why has the share price dropped 30% since the deal was announced?

2020 has been yet another woeful year for Xtract shareholders.

Worth noting that 4.6 billion shares are locked up for at least 6 months, an agreement by the major shareholders - that leaves a free float of circa 3.5b.

One assumes some of the placing was forward sold (placing stock usually is) and a reasonable chunk of stock would not attract sellers due to higher priced historic purchases, circa .32p to 1p

The after market could be very interesting therefore, at .24p RMM is valued at £19.5m but with £6.25m cash and a clean balance sheet.

In Q4 2019 Rambler was valued at £32m with debt of about £5m - you can see that the shares are cheap - there is room for very decent upside and a decent after market.

A recovery play for certain.

The share price is baffling, price is now below March before suspension, every positive thing that has occurred since is not in the price, including a near $600oz gold price rise.

Equity only valued at £35m right now ??

For newbies it may be worth reading the last research note which was pretty comprehensive, the projects stack up as does the suggested revenue streams - if all goes to plan equates to £1m a month to Xtract.

Fully diluted target price 6.56p

http://www.alignresearch.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/Xtract_Resources_Initiation_Align_Oct_2020.pdf

It does look like ORR failed to inform the market that Iamgold had stopped drilling at Senala, the RNS dated 29th June said Iamgold had commenced a 10k air core drill programme with the results expected in Q4.

This weeks announcement informs they had only completed around 10% of that drill programme to date, are now restarting after a 3 month delay, it is pretty obvious that there will be no results forthcoming in Q4 which is disappointing to say the least, Oriole anticipate them in Q1.

Some may feel this news was withheld so the large fundraise could go ahead without negative sentiment in the market, this poster could not possibly comment !

Saw this elsewhere

https://www.commodity-tv.com/play/newsflash-with-sibanye-stillwater-condor-gold-karora-resources-fury-gold-and-vizsla-resources/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

The sector has been battered over the last 2 days but MTL's share price is now marginally below the price reached in March when gold was only $1300oz, the stock has been pretty well bid (meaning they are happy to take shares) for most of the day.

Many investors have lost large sums of cash in the COVID space and are subject to margin calls and are selling anything liquid, I suspect this has accounted for sector weakness as well as the gold price drop.

MTL looks seriously oversold and are due a strong bounce, the gold price will recover.

Gixxer

That is a great post and sums matters up impeccably, then add to the sorry mix Bird's city contact list which so infuriated Tom Winnifrith including Sanderson who sold down from 14% to zero without informing the market, Bird then pats them on the back with a loan funding deal.

Basically a investment in Xtract is a bet on Bird's next whim, there is no real governance, no-one challenges him at board level so he has a free reign, had he appointed a dynamic CEO to deliver Manica (as he suggested a few years ago) the share price would not be in the gutter now.

The latest whim is Bushranger, this may or may not deliver value, he has given away 100m shares at 1.25p to the vendors, equating to 25% of the company at the time, that is a massive bet, if it fails legacy shareholders will lose out as the vendors have 100m shares to dump.

Bird has become a loose cannon, did anyone hear him in a recent podcast suggest Xtract might make another acquisition, I could barely believe it.

Time to DELIVER Mr Bird.

A gold price above $1900oz is transformational for MTL, I am staggered the shares are still trading around 2.1p - I suspect a few who bought the lows are taking some profit but once out I very much suspect they will not be able to buy back lower.

Equity is only valued circa £40m currently, the same level as in March when gold was only $1300oz + MTL is now operationally profitable.

A great entry point IMO.

It is interesting that everybody seems to want to receive AST via various means, the latest being a service provider.

Stake building has been going on since August.

Follow the money, Align have a target price of 20p, a positive result from Slovenia could deliver 30p+ in my view, with 80m shares issued that would only equate to £24m.

The claim for damages has to be circa £40m - AST is cheap right now IMO

Sanderson have been 'active' in XTR shares ever since they mysteriously acquired (from where?) 14% of the company, equating to 62m shares on 5th September 2019.

https://www.investegate.co.uk/xtract-resources-plc/rns/holding-s--in-company/201909051011073498L/

There have been no holding statements concerning Sanderson until today, they now have only 20m shares (and selling down) basically the shares they secured in the latest placing.

It seems they have disposed of their previously acquired 14% stake without declaring, in fact XTR were forced to say this in the last placing RNS...

'the Company understands that Sanderson subsequently reduced its holding in Xtract to below 10%'

Well darn right they did, they dumped 62m shares over the last 12 months - their entire stake, so why not say that in the same RNS ? Bird has happily decided to use Sanderson for the loan funding ?

Sanderson not declaring their share sales hardly inspires confidence if they are going to be used for loan finance in the future, smoke and mirrors comes to mind.

A well managed company with a focussed CEO would be able to address matters like the above but Bird does not respond to emails and contact with shareholders is minimal to say the least.

Many reasons why XTR has underperformed and refuses to participate in the huge re-rate in the junior gold space.

Up to their usual games, has anyone noticed that any company where Sanderson prints a TR1 has a woeful share price track record. They only seem to be interested in the gutter of the small cap space, one wonders why.

Just look at Kibo Energy's share price performance since Sanderson offered various types of 'funding' a few years ago.

Winnifrith was incensed about XTR's broker and one of it's employee's but he has also attacked Sanderson via his website.

Why does Bird rub shoulders with such types one wonders ??

Gold has gone through $1900oz again tonight, worth remembering the share price was 1.9p in March before panic selling took it down to .75p as everyone thought it was game over, then suspension. The company is now operationally profitable and a entirely different investment proposition.

My view is any purchase below 2.5p is a gift even accounting for the debt, the market will re-rate aggressively if the gold price continues it's up move. MTL is a highly geared play on a rising gold price, at current levels a cash cow.

The shares hit 3.4p last week, no reason why this cannot be a short term target once again, long term some scenarios suggest 8p+ is attainable.

Worth noting at 3p MTL equity is only valued at £60m !

To be totally honest I have found the year to be exceptionally disappointing regarding Xtract, the only 'excitement' was when TW decided to promote the company mid year via his two online 'events' leading to the share price rise to 2.3p. When TW decided to mysteriously turn turtle and told his followers to sell Xtract shares performed poorly ever since.

I could write a very long resume about how I feel about Colin Bird, his 'enthusiasm' and antics, shall I just say I have sold out of every Bird related stock except XTR - will not be buying again. Made good money out of Jubilee a few years ago (buying in under 1p) but soon realised that Jubilee was run my a very shrewd and entirely focussed fellow called Leon.

In a nutshell, you never know what Colin's next move will be other than saying it rarely benefits shareholders, his timelines, his continued confetti placings, his deals with obscure entities, his City contact list that so infuriated TW and the next 'must do' deal has destroyed the confidence of the most avid follower and shareholder.

He was quite right about one thing in a recent podcast, the reason Xtract is materially undervalued is because he has failed to deliver, the market wants to see DELIVERY, 3 years now and nothing material at all.

Book has turned very positive, looks like this could re-rate quickly, has the seller cleared ? Has funding been sorted?

Company valued at only £5m? Was £20m in the summer !

Bird has talked about various other companies operating in or around the above project, have found this article from April which describes the area as 'elephant country'

Given the AIM market seems to have a love affair with Aussie stocks one does wonder why Xtract has not benefitted.

https://stockhead.com.au/resources/the-lachlan-fold-belt-is-shaping-up-to-be-elephant-country-and-its-only-just-beginning/