Member Info for HawaiifiveO

Media today.....

Omega Diagnostics hails Health & Nutrition revenue growth as Covid-related revenues wither

The H&N division remains one of the key areas of strategic focus, with substantial growth opportunities in both China and the US.

https://tinyurl.com/mwd989ju

The Health & Nutrition business is probably worth in excess of £20m alone, the last broker note suggested conservatively the non COVID businesses were worth 18p a share.

Remember the share price was happily trading around 20p before the insiders started to leak and forward sell the now aborted placing - the only reason the stock is where it is now is down to that.

No wonder large buys have been hitting the ticker recently, re-iterate current £9.5m m/cap is farcical IMO.

There is a saying 'fools and money are easily parted' those selling now are the fools IMO, selling the bottom is exactly the same as those buying the top at circa £1 last year.

The shrewd are buying and will hold to see a strong recovery.

DYOR etc

The Global Health division has also seen substantial growth in the period, up 97% to £3.8m , this business alone is probably worth in excess of £20m - current m/cap £9.5m

The new CFO has cut costs dramatically, the company is a turnaround situation, the shares remain cheap IMO.

Cannot rule out a bid either.

Very positive update on trading, the current m;cap is too low plain and simple - still expecting corporate action, ODX is a sound recovery play, still believe 15p is a realistic SP target.

Yes I believe they are working something in the background, you do not get volume kicks on AIM without reason, in a nutshell someone knows something IMO.

I pointed out that ODX is materially undervalued to peers, a bid IRO 15p would value ODX at a modest £27m, one thing for sure the price is a gift around current levels, I believe the broker suggested ODX was worth 18p a share once all the net of the COVID business which is no longer.

Buy and hold IMO.

Agreed, something is driving this increased volume, I strongly suspect some form of corporate action ahead, add to the mix the material undervaluation which makes it a takeover target.

Chesser Resources recently reported outstanding economics for their Diamba Sud Gold Project in northern Senegal, close to ORR's Fare licence area.

The pre tax NPV was $402m but most interesting project payback was only 15 months with a 7.5 year mine life, resource upside could extend the project well beyond that time frame via further exploration.

This is a very significant statement and shows that ORR are quite literally sitting on a new prospective gold mine at Fare via Chesser in the north and Boto via Iamgold in the south - once again it shows the chronic undervaluation of Oriole compared to peers, any gold discovered on the their Senala licence could be trucked to these mines.

The news concerning Chesser seems to have gone un-noticed but it is material and has economic benefits to ORR.

No wonder ORR shares are starting to move up, still a long way to go though, the circa £6m m/cap is ridiculous.

https://newswire.iguana2.com/af5f4d73c1a54a33/chz.asx/6A1081774/CHZ_CHESSER_SCOPING_STUDY_CONFIRMS_ROBUST_LOW-COST_GOLD_PROJECT

It is interesting that major and mid caps are now taking equity or project stakes in minnows, this is a relatively new development and I expect this could easily happen to ORR, especially in Cameroon.

A deal along the lines of a JV with some cash up front would halt equity dilution in a flash and deliver a meaningful valuation uplift for ORR.

I would rule out a deal like this incoming, that is the reason I feel this is a great entry point, I have added today.

https://www.streetwisereports.com/article/2022/04/04/analyst-good-to-see-majors-making-investments-in-exploration-firms.html

I am pretty convinced that there is some corporate action to be announced shortly, it makes sense and would be the best way to restore market confidence and most importantly shareholder value.

In my view, compared to peers ODX is materially undervalued, what is CONSERVATIVE value for the remaining (non COVID) businesses, may I suggest £20m to £25m equating to 10.5p to 13p a share, trying to be realistic but based on numbers already in the market.

Of course a bid may be at a premium to the above examples.

With circa 182m in issue the current m/cap is a mere £8m, this is far too low in my considered opinion, purely as a result of market sentiment, I posted a around 10 days ago the shrewd are buying the lows, the company has cut costs and could quickly return to profitability and growth.

You make money on AIM by timing your entry point, I believe now is that time for ODX, ignore the bashers IMO.

It has been more difficult to buy in any significant size over recent sessions with some online brokers 'at best' even for small quantities of stock.

One wonders if a strategic review to be announced or maybe a JV or outright takeover of the company,my view is the low point was IRO 4p and can see some decent upside ahead.

The relatively tight free float associated with rising volume over a number of days was a major contributor to the share price spike to 1.95p last February.

You can never rule out another price event, it is interesting how the stock is responding positively to fairly modest buying pressure, this is a very good sign, I think the bulls are back in town for Oriole, news is also expected + the BOD have hinted on asset sales which could cancel out a placing in Q4 which would be exceptionally positive.

Very encouraging indeed.

Judging by the limited market size of stock available it looks more like they have a line of shares to shift, there are lots of shenanigans going on today, the last day of the tax year.

Buyers seem content in taking up the slack around .40p nonetheless.

Before I post my current thoughts I feel I should declare I have been buying ORR shares over recent weeks and have now built a nice position for a very modest outlay, it would have cost £40k last March, now costing only £6k.

The sector has been decimated and ORR seem to have suffered far more than most peer groups, from their high point ORR are down 85% off their high, the average is circa 50% across a peer group.

I believe ORR will re-rate very quickly when folks realise the value proposition ahead, there are many catalysts ahead, Iamgold have to spend $4m in Senegal in only 2 years, news-flow will be intense, in Cameroon I expect material developments in activity, certainly I believe a JV partner will be announced, it is the management model, I also expect the JV will be a better one (for shareholders) that the one delivered by the old BOD, namely there will be a up front cash element advanced to Oriole as part of the deal.

So that's the two main projects covered leaving a number of legacy situations which could be worth £3m to £4m, royalties could be sold, £1m could come from the Turkish legal claims that must be closing to a conclusion, the stakes in Elephant Oil and minority interests in Thani Stratex could easily be worth, at least £1m but probably £2m - all these 'assets' are up for sale.

So as it stands the current market value of £6m is rock bottom basement, the shares could easily multi bag on just one piece of positive news.

Oriole is also vulnerable to a takeover approach, a major would be interested in Cameroon alone, a bid would be at a significant premium and pocket money even a mid cap.

This was posted at the other place (see below), it does make some sense, my view is ODX is materially oversold and due a bounce, news is expected also, bounce back rallies can come at the least expected time, I continue to add.

'm1sterx1 Apr '22 - 08:17 - 15879 of 15881 Edit

It is very unusual for a heavily traded and formally popular AIM stock to flatline for nearly two months like ODX has.

Note how despised NCCL surged from .45p to 1.7p in a few days recently after the shares had flatlined, one suspects the 'bashers' of ODX are quietly going long ahead of a news-flow period, something to bear in mind, there has also been liquidity restraints on the offer, always a good sign.

Time to go long ODX with a 10p target, would value the company around £18m, not demanding compared to peers, as pointed out by a few others if you know where to look.

The astute are buyers'

Once again it has been pretty hard to buy in any real size recently, yesterday for most of the afternoon it was 'at best' only on quite small quantities, there was next to nothing available at 3.8p offer today and now the offer is higher they only have around £10k of shares before it moves up again.

The company seems undervalued to peers (circa £7m m/cap) and speculate something material may be going on behind the scenes.

I have added accordingly.

The only consolation here is the entire sector remains dire, even POW with all the efforts made by Johnson, including daily RNS's, director buying, unlimited media events + being a 'liked' CEO yet the share price is down from 3.45p to 1.20p recently.

Maybe, just maybe, RRR stake in Elephant Oil will exceed market expectations and provide a meaningful liquidity event.

The RSI hit overbought territory and probably explains the drop as traders usually see this as a sign of a SP weakness ahead, it may settle back circa 2.75p - 3p before rebounding once again, all IMO etc

Bell is a story teller, he tells stories, the latest one being in the Congo, listening to the recent fare Bell now says he feels certain parties involved may not have the cash to pay compensation to Red Rock but might be able to offer alternative licences, well the last thing shareholders want is further exploration ground to expend money the company does not have.

After all the noise from Bell about legal pursuits in the Congo the only RNS shareholders demand is receipt of hard cash, multi millions of USD, will this come, the market thinks not judging by the share price.

Bell will duck, dive, weave, offer excuses, spin yarns - to make matters worse he is so thick skinned one has to feel he actually adores being criticised, some 5 years ago at a certain presentation Bell was introduced by the host as the most disliked (or words to that effect) CEO on AIM, Bell actually seemed love the title and then proceeded to waffle on about sector cycles etc.

One cannot understand how Helpful & Co can actually support the fellow, a BOD of Bell, Kaintz & Borelli, maybe they should add Count Dracula as a Non Exec to further enhance their appeal.

If the case for upside is so appeal Helpful why are you not filling your boots with red Rock equity ?