Member Info for HawaiifiveO

It is clear the Open Offer will get very little take up which is good for shareholders (less dilution) once the placing stock is admitted there will be around 230m shares, equating to a market value of a mere £8m, the company had cash of £1.5m on 31st March further enhanced by the recent £2m equity raise.

The valuation is clearly a nonsense given the potential sale of CD4, this could bring in £3m-£4m (or possibly more) and the ongoing Health business generating £9m in revenues with strong margins and growth potential.

The bashers have been working hard, never a day goes by without them, ever since a certain website decided to start the attack. It is interesting however that this certain website was calling for VAST to go bust, their 'efforts' took the share price to .20p as investors panicked, within a week or so the shares hit 2.4p - worth remembering !

DYOR etc

It seems they have decided to wait for a specific licence award in Australia before attempting to list, this licence is apparently one of the hottest in the prospective portfolio, it is suggested it will enhance the value of the IPO.

In respect of Elephant Oil Bell did explain a shareholder needed to be removed from the list to proceed the listing, apparently this has been done.

In general market conditions have been woeful so no surprises the IPO's have not occurred, these conditions will not last forever and both are value driving events for Red Rock.

In respect of news-flow, this year has been pretty barren but Bell has said that news in current markets does little for the share price so there is some logic to remain quiet until markets pick up.

The only caveat to the above being a cash settlement for the Congo, if Bell can get money (they are pursuing circa £11m) then that would most definitely be exceptionally well received by the market more-so as RRR is valued at sub £5m

The announcement from ARCM today goes to show the sheer scale of the cash needed to progress exploration properly across a 800,000 sq km licence, the deal they have done with Anglo American allows for circa $70m in exploration expenditure a sum their CEO describes as 'essential' to progress the project.

Before this deal ARCM has already spent $8m on the licence.

So why is this being mentioned on the ORR bulletin board, quite simply because it shows how farcical the business model at ORR is, the Central Licence Package in Cameroon is FOUR TIMES the size of Arc Minerals in Zambia and to date nothing has been spent, so how do ORR proceed ??

Livesey & Co seem to think they can mosey on with their £1.5m annual placings, digging here and there, this is clearly inadequate, they need a JV partner but are unlikely to attract one until, at least £5m - £10m is spent, if the results are good enough then a partner might come in.

It is worth noting that the old Stratex BOD, who were good at selling projects and bringing in partners, spent £7m in Senegal before Iamgold were brought in, so the aforementioned scenario in Cameroon is not unrealistic.

Like many suggest, the business model is flawed, it involves significant dilution for many years ahead until such a time drilling results are good enough to attract a funding partner, no wonder the CFO is suggesting dilution is not a problem.

The BOD need to prove they can proceed projects without ripping the guts out of equity holders, so far they most definitely have not.

Today's webinar

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c_ugjmpiq50

Just to put the record straight when Tim Livesey was appointed on March 1st 2018 the share price was .85p with 476m shares in issue to give a market value of £4.05m.

Within circa 3 months of his appointment they placed 250m shares at .50p using Turner Pope as broker, making the count 726m shares, it is clearly evident, right from the start, that dilution at any price was never an issue.

Issued capital is now circa 2 billion shares, at today's close the market values ORR at £5.4m, so despite commentaries from the CFO about growing the market cap it has only increased by £1.4m despite raising £5.4m via placings plus a further circa £1m via tax rebates & asset sales.

Shareholders can expect more dilution this year, if they need to raise £1.5m then a further 600m shares would need to be issued, assuming they can get the placing away at .25p.

In my view the market has seen through the business model and does not like it, asset sales have not delivered any meaningful cash and projects are all long term, the BOD seem transfixed, almost intransigent, their not insignificant salaries are assured - expect BOD remuneration to be closing in on £500,000 this FY.

In weak markets junior companies like ORR will come under increasing pressure, the BOD need to get their heads out of the sand and think outside the box, will it happen, unlikely IMO.

For the above reasons ORR remains a trading stock only, sorry to be negative but markets are cruel and these points are factual.

Having listened to the presentation last evening I feel at current levels the company is materially undervalued, the baggage is gradually being cleared, the sale of CD4 seems to have attracted reasonable interest so I would expect to see a positive outcome, clearly a quick sale would be far better but I expect them to re-coup the potential £1.2m outlay by some margin, would not be surprised to see a sale IRO £3m-£4m, we will see.

They seem confident there will be no liability to the Dept of Health - they could actually proceed for a claim of damages but this will take some time, the number could be quite significant.

The Health & Nutrition business seems to have ability for significant growth, current revenues are circa £9m with a good margin.

The company needs to deliver to remove the negativity, unfortunately investors who have been wiped out will remain bitter for a very long time, eventually new investors will replace them and sentiment will turn up, this is very much a turnaround proposition IMO.

Buy low sell high !

One does wonder if a Manica RNS is about to drop, I would have thought the news from Empress Royalty overnight would be deemed as material - maiden production expected to commence by end June at the latest.

Surprised the share price has not rallied harder on the news but I guess the wider market has no clue of the significance, seems it has been pretty hard to buy online this morning according to posts elsewhere.

Manica looks so impressive compared to the old photos previously posted on the XTR website, clearly Empress are a very professional outfit, production to commence by end June at the latest.

Great news for XTR investors !

The RSI is still in heavily oversold territory, the last time the RSI hit 23 back in July last year the share price rallied 35% in a few sessions - if history repeats you are looking for a rise to circa 6.2p.

Buy low sell high !

Looks significantly oversold from a technical perspective the RSI sits at only 23, it has bounced hard off this level in the past.

Looks a decent entry point for a trade or add.

There have been a few comments on the other site today, I do feel the company should step back and listen to the worthy comments made by it's shareholders, they do seem transfixed with their way or no way.

Observer007

9 May '22 - 15:05 - 3767 of 3767

Whilst I am at pains to say this I do feel the gloss about Oriole and new team has been slowly whittled away by much the same policy of that of the previous BOD, namely look after themselves.

Tim Livesey was a breath of fresh air but I feel (and may have said in the past) there was still a whiff of the old Stratex hanging about the company when he was appointed.

Initially they were wary to issue options with low strike prices and no performance conditions attached but now this is the norm.

They also issued a ton of options (in lieu of fairly modest salary suspension) at the obscene strike price of .10p when the underlying share price was around .35p.

Recently they have added to G&A costs by promoting Claire Bay to the management team, BOD remuneration is now IRO £500,000 annually, compare this to the likes of Power Metal who paid their entire BOD only £320,000 despite having about 3 times the scale in projects.

Worse still is the total lack of empathy for shareholders who have both been wiped out (legacy Stratex holders) and even fairly new investors who have bought above .75p when Livesey was appointed, some paying 1p+

Recent presentations have been woeful, even suggesting that diluting equity is not an issue, they seem to have no understanding of how AIM works, music to the ears of those who short and forward sell.

In conclusion I am exceptionally disappointed by the BOD, Livesey has not delivered, contempt for legacy Stratex shareholders was plain to see from the start which clearly did not help.

Would I put more money into ORR right now, not on your nelly, the next placing is expected in September.

Whist there are commentaries on salaries of the BOD the bashing community fail to point out that director remuneration seems to be circa £200,000 pa lower than last year as Colin King has not been replaced, we do not know how much Grewal and the new CFO are being paid but one suspects broadly in line with the existing payments in 2021 of £150.000 each.

The Non Exec's are on £30,000 to £50,000.

In other words, right now, director remuneration is broadly in line (if not slightly lower) to peers.

I believe the aim will be to come to some amicable settlement concerning Congo damages, we know there is $15m sitting there from the third party but what is not clear is if the initial $5m they paid has been siphoned away by the JV partner and if the JV has the ability to pay the $2m costs/damages awarded by the court, it is not clear what implications would be for the directors of the JV partner (could they receive custodial sentences for example) if they do not pay.

Let's face it if Red Rock can come away with $5m cash from this affair + some licences of equal quality (for example ) it would be a very good result but there is the definite possibility they could come away with a sum far larger.

In my view Bell would look very very silly if he gets nothing having twice said he expects to get a certain amount of cash, so I do expect to see a positive outcome in one form or another.

In respect of the legal claim of $200m+ against the major mining company it is anyone's guess as to the outcome but a nice situation for shareholders to wait for.

I am convinced if this was a more 'popular' company on AIM the share price would be multiples higher but therein lies the opportunity IMO.

It is pretty clear that there appears to be more interest in Red Rock over recent weeks, it is for a reason as there is a weight of news-flow ahead and in particular a number of potential value events ahead as I commented on in a earlier post.

Bell has said he is going out to the Congo to pursue the 50.1% of $15m cash sitting there held by a third party, Red Rock has also (separately) won 50.1% of $5m + $2m in costs, in all a potential £9.6m at current exchange rates - the current m/cap is barely £5m

Then there is the upcoming float of Elephant Oil which could be worth £2m or even £3m.

What other AIM company are pursuing such a sum of near term cash, it equates to nearly 3 times the current market value alone.

Then add the projects and investments, 37m POW and 1m+ JUNO shares, worth £1m+, add in Kenyan gold (JORC 800,000oz) Congo licences in very prospective areas (including a potential $200m legal claim against a major mining company) the lithium licences in Zimbabwe, the $8m royalty concerning Mt Ida project.

So the above is why interest is building, the bashers here have valid reasons to be bitter but they must have pressed the buy button for a reason at far far higher levels and need to accept they bought in at the height of the last bull market is they have major losses or been wiped out, this has not happened over the last 5 years as the RRR share price has ranged between .25p and 1.3p more or less in line with the sector.

To conclude, now is the time to buy Red Rock, the upside significantly outweighs the downside IMO.

In all seriousness I do wonder what has happened to the Action Group, the plan was to

1, Vote down the last placing
2, Engage with the BOD
3, Call an EGM (if not satisfied with affairs)
4, Work on a plan to restore value

There seemed to be a fairly professional effort and communication with retail investors was good - the last communication was on 20th March ?

It is quite unusual for an Action Group to be formed and then vanish so what is going on, have the participants given up the ghost or is some other plan being hatched ? They suggested they were working on a plan back then.

The Twitter 'handle' of the main co-ordinator was @AIMissionary but no tweets since the aforementioned date, surely if they are still in existence it would be prudent to say something ASAP. I cannot remember his LSE handle, can anyone else remember who from the AG posted here?

Can't see many of the Open Offer shares being taken up, they do not have warrants attached either, so we are left with 50m shares issued at 4p and 90m warrants at 4p, the only consolation is the share price will need to be reasonably higher than 4p for them to be exercised + the H&N business should be easy to value without the baggage of the other businesses.

Warrants never get exercised all at once so they should be easy to absorb.

I expect the BOD know the Open Offer is unlikely to bring in much also.

If the H&N business can perform and grow then you could be looking at a valuation north of £40m or 10p-12p a share based on the fully diluted number, one wonders how much the CD4 business may bring in via sale proceeds.

If nothing else the business will be far easier to value and attractive to takeover approaches, it is becoming a reasonable investment proposition from a very low base.

I have added to my holding.

I take comfort in News being here with his in depth research, the last time I came across his posts were at XTR when they were 1p, not so long after the shares hit 9p.

I do believe this is as good as any time over the last couple of years to buy RRR and come to that other bombed out junior explorers, when the sector turns up it moves very quickly indeed.

Can RRR do a VAST (from .20p to 2.4p in a few sessions) anything is possible !

There are a number of individuals who post on the Red Rock bulletin boards who refuse to accept their errors of judgement by buying at the top of the last exploration bull cycle and will demean, post negatively and spam Red Rock discussion forums as long as they have breath in their lungs.

Because they failed, over their dead bodies, do they want to see anyone make money from this company as an investment, it is a sorry state of affairs but there we are, best ignore or filter.

A fellow who knows about these things suggests these types are no longer able to invest themselves as they are economically bankrupt, their only redress is to blame just about everyone else but themselves.

Fact is, and it is a fact, Red Rock equity has traded between .40p and 1.3p over the last 6 years during a dire period in the sector, it does look like green shoots are sprouting as will the RRR share price, buying in now is a pretty good bet in my considered opinion.

Timing one's entry point is the key to success.

Look what has happened to VAST today, a week ago a rather, if I may say, unscrupulous online blog were suggesting the company was going bust, the shares plummeted to .19p, they are now changing hands at 1.25p at this moment in time.

This type of move COULD occur here, it only took 2 news updates today to move VAST, at RRR there are a possible 4 or 5 waiting in the wings !