Member Info for HawaiifiveO

From recent podcasts with both Paul Johnson and Andrew Bell it seems that they are both now keen to propel New Ballarat Gold to IPO, that will be another winner once markets turn up, Red Rock hold 50.1% if I recall and POW the remainder.

I see POW as a decent recovery play from a pretty low base, with 1.5b shares issued the market cap is now only £13.5m - a far cry from the £37m valuation back in January 2021.

Hidden in the depths of the Red Rock website and interesting

'we await inflows, potentially large in relation to the size of the company'

Also refers to the listing of Elephant Oil, its been a while since this was talked about but Bell has referred to a value (to RRR) circa £2m if I recall.

https://www.rrrplc.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/2022.07.25-RRR_GM_Chairmans_Letter-WEB.pdf

Regardless of the in's and out's of the monetary outcome in Congo I have noticed that some entity or entities are buying any loose stock that comes onto the market, I see this as a positive .

What is obvious is that information leaks out, what is clear is that some individuals have more intimate knowledge of events in the Congo than us morsels on this bulletin board and are probably taking advantage in a stealthy manner.

If as Bell suggests the licence was sold for $430m soon after it was stolen from Red Rock the stakes are VERY high indeed, at £7m m/cap Red Rock equity is stupid cheap.

I have had a number of online disputes with Helpful, whilst he may have conflicting interests in posting on this BB in the case of the major shareholders he may be close to we have a lot to thank them for.

Firstly the major shareholders blocked Bell's ability to dilute at will at the AGM 2 years ago, they had a director resign and seem to have Bell under control, they have also supported RRR financially via CLN's which have been at market or at a premium to market. They told Bell to extract value from the existing portfolio and cease acquiring the next 'must do' projects.

In a nutshell Bell is still restricted in what he can do (he probably hates it IMO) whilst he has ability to raise via equity he needs major shareholder approval - Bell knows he is on thin ice, 3 large shareholders control circa 23% of the company (maybe more) they could call a EGM with a resolution to remove Bell and I am sure the remaining shareholder base would support it, the significant 'Bell discount' on RRR equity remained even during the last bull phase.

I fully believe a positive result will come from the Congo, the insiders have also drawn this conclusion by accepting CLN's with a conversion price of 0.60p, a premium, the warrants are priced at 0.80p.

As I posted earlier I believe the arbitration result will be announced sooner than later, what is more it is binding as all parties have to agree to go down this route, I think it is nailed on RRR will get it's cash either in full or a fair proportion of it therefore.

I have not sold a share !

DYOR

For what it is worth I believe the arbitration outcome news will be near term, the reason I conclude this is because Andrew Bell is totally silent, he must be itching to do a podcast and shout from the rooftops but I suspect imminent means just that, the market also seems to know something because it has been nigh impossible to buy RRR stock in any scale since AB returned home, currently you cannot even buy £1500 of shares without paying a premium.

There are some signs a few green shoots are returning to the sector, at only £7m m/cap there is one heck of a lot potential to release significant value from the portfolio of projects, IPO's, royalties and investments that Red Rock hold, if Congo delivers some material cash the current market value should move materially higher.

It is frustrating but patience may well be rewarded from a very low base.

The market is a forward looking instrument, it seems TOOP is a growth opportunity with 'significant new contracts' and 'orders increasing and gross margins improving' The results today are historic but still show improvement.

For a company valued at only £1.5m the current prise is a great entry point for significant capital appreciation, this could, dare I say, be a candidate for multi-bag status.

I would add to the last post by saying a arbitration decision is 'imminent'

From what I can read into this is that Red Rock have no hope in hell of receiving any cash or assistance from the former JV partner VUP (guess who did the deal with such an outfit) nonetheless do not despair.

The good news is that Gecamines hold $15m and are reputable, so Red Rock are pursuing arbitration to get their share which amounts to $7.5m, there is also a possibility that Red Rock could block (possibly by the same arbitration route) the other $7.5m that would be going to VUP until Red Rock receive $4.5m they are owed by VUP via the court order.

In summery, IMO, Red Rock have hit a brick wall in VUP but there is still a very likely possibility that the company could get all of it's cash via Gecamines who have the ability to pay.

My understanding is the arbitration award is binding legally and one assumes that Gecamines would act in a appropriate manner and pay up.

I think folk who have a closer understanding of the situation are clearly happy holding RRR stock, buying the dips, plus the loan note conversion price being at a premium (0.60p) suggests they feel a win will come out of this one way or another.

I have not sold any.

DYOR

Well according to todays update a arbitration award (which one assumes all parties will honour) is imminent, this means RRR should get a significant lump of cash with no strings attached.

The CLN holders seem to think their 0.60p shares will soon be showing a very decent profit.

Livesey & Co come out with the same spiel around this time every year, most galling was the reference to the fact they expended precious shareholder money going to the 121 Mining Conference in South Africa, the commentary is always the same lots of discussions and interest etc but nothing ever comes out of it.

What is needed is a clear and concise way forward spelt out in plain language (something you rarely get from this outfit) How is the significant exploration programme in Cameroon going to be paid for, it is crying out for a JV partner of financial substance.

In respect of the legacy projects, royalties, legal claims in Turkey, how many more years will it be until some of this value is materially unlocked?

In respect of Senegal, within 2 years ORR will only own 30% of this project, historically Livesey has said that they could try to monetize their stake by outright sale, the JV is a poor one, Oriole should have had material cash up front from the deal, it never happened, there should have been disclosure clauses so the minnow could relay progress to market on a regular basis but no, there are other drawbacks, such as the major is not interested in establishing JORC reserves etc. Within the next 2 years around £12m would have been spent on Senegal but none of this spend is reflected in Orioles market valuation.

It really is time for Livesey and Co to actually deliver something meaningful beyond power puff interviews and waffle, maybe, just maybe, the penny has dropped and they are close to doing so.

The debate concerning RRR's other projects just goes to show how materially undervalued the company is at sub £7m m/cap

If all goes to plan the re-rate of Red Rock could be as dramatic as it was back in 2010 when the share price moved from under 1.5p to 14p in reasonably quick time.

Surely an update re the Congo compensation situation is reasonably imminent - that could be the catalyst.

Correction

Para 4 should read

if an offer came in right now for 1p one suspects most would bite the hand off to take it - but that would only value ORR at a mere £22m

The market is not valuing ORR correctly, how can it be, take for example the Senegal licence, ORR has 5 times the licence size of that of nearby Chesser Resources but according to the market this licence is worthless, Chesser has a market value of £29m (it was £60m 18 months ago) Chesser continue to record bonanza gold grades only 6km and on trend to Oriole but ORR's bonanza grades nearby (at Fare) are ignored ?

Moving on to Cameroon, 1st mover advantage, a gold trend established at Bibemi and a licence package which a major would be proud of, the CEO suggests Cameroon will be the next Tanzania, this licence package would be a dream for a major or mid cap but it is valued at peanuts ?

Add to the mix legacy assets including royalties, equity positions and legal claims, in total worth nothing short of a conservative £3m, the current cash position is probably better than most juniors at circa £1.2m

It does make you wonder if the valuation anomaly will enable a suitor to acquire ORR outright for peanuts, if an offer came in right now for 1-5p one suspects most would bite the hand off to take it - but that would only value ORR at a mere £15m.

This anomaly has to be a reflection of management, a bunch of geologists, it was interesting that a current CEO of a peer company was exceptionally critical of geologists running AIM exploration companies in a Twitter post this week. Livesey & Co have no idea how to promote, if someone like Paul Johnson or a David Lenigas was at the helm there is no way ORR would be valued circa £4m right now.

The sector is out of fashion, it is probably a good time to buy these bombed out juniors.

Andrew Bell has re-tweeted the Proactive interview of June 8th today where he says he is pleased with what he has achieved in the Congo. Interesting, a clue maybe ?

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/987030/red-rock-resources-presents-plans-with-jv-new-ballarat-gold-to-seize-berringa-gold-mine-987030.html?viewSource=TwitterUK

Has anyone noticed the silence from poster Helpful has coincided with the silence from Andrew Bell - coincidence ?

Surely Helpful is not Bell himself ?

Bell is back home - just announced on Twitter

'Just back from a trip to deal, once and for all, with an issue in Central Africa. I changed my return ticket 10x (the travel agent says 13x) but I am back. So missed Jubilee, Father's Day, political dramas and some nice weather, but at least not Glyndebourne on 27th!'

https://twitter.com/ABell2019/status/1548951736982847490?s=20&t=IlgNA3zLDSF1ROVJ7R_xrw

A Geologist (assume Bell knows him) has replied 'The fruits shall be sweet!'

https://twitter.com/AleckyJames/status/1548952711479148544?s=20&t=IlgNA3zLDSF1ROVJ7R_xrw

Online limits have dropped significantly this morning from recent levels - remember the shares have fallen 92% since February 2021 but most of that drop has been on very low volume.

Oriole is valued at a mere £4m - if you look at a peer like Chesser Resources, even after recent woeful market performance, they are still valued at £29m.

The old adage of buy low sell high most definitely comes into play here, at some point the sector has to turn up.

DYOR etc

Bell is back tweeting vigorously again after a 2 day period of silence, has he been traveling home, I have a strong feeling that we will get a RNS tomorrow, Helpful is silent also.

Absolutely no idea of the outcome, it is amazing to think he has been in the Congo for 6 weeks and there has been no clue as to what is going on, the Proactive interview last Friday suggesting he had succeeded was most strange.

No RNS tomorrow and the mystery deepens.

For those interested some of the 'promoters' that pushed the stock from under 0.40p to 1.95p back in February 2021 are at it again, so much so that the company felt it was worthy of a Tweet this afternoon.

Increasing interest on Twitter late last week also, maybe the share price recovery starts next week.

https://twitter.com/OrioleResources/status/1548705888885694467?s=20&t=BKkK6eAQRABXdH3NLTZ1jw

It is highly unusual for Bell to remain silent on his personal Twitter feed so long, the last post of note was the photo in a hotel lobby taken around 7pm Wednesday with his local advisor where he looked like he was going to a meeting and a short reply yesterday around 8am.

Helpful seems to have hinted yesterday that the process was coming to a conclusion, we will see, to say the very least, after 6 weeks in country, it is exceptionally frustrating.

Maybe another Proactive interview later like last week ?