Member Info for HawaiifiveO

Anglesey featured on the Critical Minerals Strategy at Parys Mountain for 1st time - very significant !

https://twitter.com/Oilplayer2009/status/1560941133613727744?s=20&t=f-Q-Q_ky7xemqO-k5Simxg

Increasing volume and a rising share price is always a good sign on AIM, it is also interesting that POW are rising, one wonders if the IPO of New Ballarat Gold is anywhere closer.

So much could happen here to drive value, not been like this for quite a while at Red Rock.

I mentioned a while ago I felt certain entities were picking up any loose shares on offer here, it seems this process is still ongoing.

One suspects the takers of the loan notes are major shareholders of Red Rock and seem to want as many RRR shares as they can get within the restrictions of AIM.

The Elephant Oil listing is a catalyst but by no means the only aspect of significant value appreciation, let us see where this goes but it is often worth following the money.

If the EO IPO is in demand who knows where their share price will go, for every $1 increase RRR stake increases by $400,000 .

Interesting times.

Major shareholders in EO are listed in the presentation document

Main ones being

Matthew Lofgran 2.88m shares (22.1%)
Gavin Burnell 2.22m shares
Adrian Beeston 1.32m shares
Stephen Lundy 707,822 (5.9%)
Peter Elliot 230,811 (1.9%)

According to the last Red Rock RNS the EO holding is 397,873 but this is not shown on the major shareholder list, probably an aberration in the rush to get the presentation completed.

Worth noting that similar early stage updates took XTR shares from under 1p to 8p on speculation a major copper discovery had been made in Australia, in the case of POW it is nickel but looking at the early coloured diagrams provided by POW they very much resemble those provided by XTR at the same time.

No wonder PJ is tweeting about mega upside potential for shareholders !

https://twitter.com/pauljohnson9691/status/1559449379865591810?s=20&t=NyTGXAlcVZ3X3Vi1z7nxPQ

Very positive interview just released.

https://twitter.com/StockBoxMedia/status/1559446266530217987?s=20&t=NyTGXAlcVZ3X3Vi1z7nxPQ

The EO IPO could be very lucrative to ORR as EO shares are expected to perform exceptionally well in the after market, worth noting that one oil company nearby to EO is valued at $1b verses EO IPO listing value of $70m.

Also of note is it seems all shareholders will receive a 1 for 1 warrant priced at 25% above IPO price, the warrants will have a life of 5 years, if EO hit oil those warrants could be worth a small fortune.

Very good news for ORR, this has not been announced to the market yet but ORR's stake might be worth an initial £250,000 on IPO but if the after market is good may be multiples of that number + the warrants could be add even more value.

ORR looks cheap.

The IPO of Elephant Oil is closing, the Public Offering in the US is priced at $4.65c a share, that is good news for ORR, the CFO has previously referred to this event as a extra revenue stream.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001865833/000121390022047008/fs12022a1_elephantoil.htm

The proposed listing of NBGC shows. once again, the inconsistency of AB comments, initially listing was to be in Canada, it was then changed to London on AIM. this time last year AB conducted a number of interviews, in one interview he was asked when the AIM IPO would happen, he said he was very confident it would be in Q4 2021 as the advisors were working hard etc, it never happened.

For added confusion a potential listing in Australia instead of Canada/London has been added to the mix.

The current situation is better described by Power Metals, in recent interviews Paul Johnson said he was frustrated that the IPO had not happened suggesting it should have, listening carefully he indirectly implies that work on the IPO had slowed, that was aimed at Red Rock in my view, their current 'Business Update' RNS (late July) makes no reference of IPO timing at all.

The only comment from AB in recent times has been he needed to go to Australia to move things forward, make of it what you will, my view is we will be seeing 2022 out with no IPO - prove me wrong AB.

Then of course there is Elephant Oil, not in AB's control but once again delays, delays, delays.

In respect of the Congo monetary claims and the arbitration outcome, we still do not know if an award is positive to RRR can it be challenged and if not are the counter parties prepared to abide by it's outcome, i.e. pay the money.

I see his chum Tom Winnifrith has once again placed AB in the last change saloon but has tipped Red Rock via a paywall newsletter which I have read, last week. It points to all the above suggesting even if one happens the SP will benefit significantly.

On the topic of Andrew Bell it is very interesting to note, through both bull and bear markets over 17 years, Bell has only managed to get the market value of Red Rock Resources above £10m in 3 of those years, namely in 2011, 2012 & 2013, in 9 of the 17 years the market value never exceeded £5m, that is woeful at best.

So despite all the must have projects, fantastic potential, rampantly bullish podcasts over 17 years the market cap has only exceeded £10m 3 times, funding has had to be secured at low levels meaning excessive dilution as a consequence.

Helpful & Co try to portray Bell as some form of messiah of shareholder wealth but the facts are very very different, folks tend to relate to share prices but regularly ignore historic data, the historic performance of Red Rock under Bell is simply atrocious FACT.

Over the same 17 years Bell has taken circa £1.5m to £2m in salary and bonuses.

The above statistics are very worthy of consideration, the current value of RRR is £6.25m, as his chum Tom Winnifrith often says there are no shareholder yachts here.

Will 2022 deliver the forth £10m+ m/cap ??

The recent takeover activity is outlined here....

https://twitter.com/Oilplayer2009/status/1556920091261927426?s=20&t=DHHTYFmJklaVVmieTRfF4A

Basically suggesting that ORR's in ground value of gold at Fare, Senala project, (fraction of area) is only valued at £16oz whereas OKLO Resources were taken over at a in ground value of A$134oz

Read across value to ORR, just based on a fraction of the Fare location was .80p a share.

Another example of the current ludicrous valuation

Andrew Bell purchasing a net 8.5m shares around 0.52p must send a positive signal, AIM executives rarely throw their own money down the drain, must feel positive concerning upcoming events.

https://www.investegate.co.uk/red-rock-resources--rrr-/rns/director-pdmr-shareholding/202208081017172508V/

Fact is, like it or not, ORR are very vulnerable to an approach from an entity which is looking to significantly expand it's gold footprint, the only notable and meaningful event the management team has delivered is the large licence package in central Cameroon, this in itself would be enough to interest a mid cap or major, these licences are now out of bounds to anyone else for a significant period and that makes ORR attractive to an approach.

It is worth recalling that ORR CEO Tim Livesey has described Cameroon as the next Tanzania by way of gold
endowment, that again is quite a statement but is not without credibility, a major could simply swoop for Oriole and get the lot for £15m-£20m IMO, that would represent a significant premium on the current sub £4m m/cap.

Livesey has historically stated that one way of securing value for the shareholders would be via a takeover approach, unlike many other juniors Oriole already has a foot in the door suitor in the form of Iamgold, no doubt others are looking on.

We then move on to ORR management, it must be hugely embarrassing for them to be working in an environment when they are having to continually take pay cuts and salary breaks due to the inability to raise cash at sensible levels without penal dilution for equity holders, in a nutshell they need to deliver value as the pressure is growing, it is for this reason I believe something material is going on in the background, note the relatively small recent cash raise.

To conclude now is probably the best time ever to buy into the company, I have personally doubled my position this week and will continue to build, it is a no brainer situation IMO.

DYOR etc.

ORR currently has a m/cap of only £3.75m, at its height, last February, it was £30m, it goes without saying that Oriole could be the target of a takeover approach, this has been feared by the BOD for some considerable time, it may also account for their new enthusiasm to acquire as much stock in the company as they legitimately can under the regulations of AIM.

I have the view that something is going on behind the scenes, it may be the long awaited sale of either a royalty or could it even be payment from the Turkish claims, if combined this could amount to £2m+, it could also be a more meaningful event.

I feel the BOD are increasingly concerned over the low market value and want to address it, it was reassuring to hear the CFO say they would not be issuing more equity at current levels so that adds strength to the 'behind the scenes' scenario.

What I do know is ORR shares have been battered down from a very well established 0.30p - 0.45p range based on very low volumes, it would not take much to move the price back up - for the aforementioned reasons I think the floor is in and now is a great time to buy in or add if finances permit.

DYOR etc

It is very interesting to note that Iamgold are spending 31% of their annual exploration budget in Senegal this year, all around ORR, that is a significant increase on previous years.

Separately they are also spending $20m on the Boto gold mine project, it seems they are really stepping up a gear in this region, one suspects ORR management would be very happy to sell their huge licence in Senegal to concentrate on Cameroon, what could it fetch, recent deals have changed hands for multiple hundreds of millions of $.

In my view there is a window of opportunity for ORR management to press for a deal, in current markets cash is king, Iamgold have plenty ORR do not, if they could get £10m-£20m it would set ORR up for many a year and extract value from Cameroon - they could also retain a NSR on their ground which could ultimately be worth 10's of millions of $.

The current market value of ORR is bordering on farcical therefore, no wonder a few folk are starting see the light and are buying in, a re-rate is odds on IMO.

These individuals own around circa 25% of the company, when you add Bell's stake it add up to 30%, it is exceptionally hard to instigate change as may be the case with other juniors where, for example, a 5% holder could gander support and call an EGM.

That is the one drawback IMO, some months ago a former large holder started buying in the market and goaded Helpful & Co, Mr Helpful told the guy if he wanted change to get his cheque book out, it is clear that there will be no change at Red Rock until the major shareholders agree therefore, it seems they want Bell in place at all costs, the question is why ?

Folks need to draw their own conclusions, I have but I will not print my thoughts on this BB for obvious reasons.

All I will add is RRR is on the cusp of major news releases, will they be good or bad, the bet is there is more chance of upside from the low base than downside.

I remain contented to hold.

When you 'invest' in Red Rock you take your chances like just about every other AIM listed sector related minnow. When I use the word invest what I really mean is trade.

It is a known fact that most folk trade shares for a % turn these days with online platforms easily assessable, the hope of a multi bag opportunity in between, over the last 18 months RRR equity has traded in a range of 1.35p to 0.35p - it has been possible to profit therefore - folk with larger % stakes bet longer term but these are a rarity.

The one aspect about Red Rock is the equity structure, the company is basically 'controlled' by a small group of individuals (

The question remains how long is 'imminent' the CLN RNS said precisely 'awaits an imminent arbitration ruling' and Bell in his letter to shareholders (link below) said 'We expect an arbitral award in the Democratic Republic of Congo, and the listing of Elephant Oil Corporation, where we are shareholders, within a short period'

So over the last 10 days we have the wording 'imminent' and 'short period'

Now the matter comes down to trust, would Bell be allowed to use those words if they were unrealistic, the other angle on this (it has not been confirmed by either Bell or 'Helpful') is if the award is in Red Rock's favour and a material cash award is made will the counter parties pay ?

Has money been placed in escrow for example ?
Who are we dealing with is it Gécamines or VUP or both ?
Can the arbitration award be challenged?
Is the award final?

There are so many aspects to this, Bell was in the Congo 6 weeks at great cost to shareholders, the true extent of his efforts may never be known until such a time as a firm decision comes into the public domain. My understanding is that arbitration has to be agreed and the result respected by all parties however.

Bell remains very quiet, it has been a very long time since he has presented in London or made himself available to shareholders outside the ludicrous timed AGM, maybe it is time he made himself available via a presentation & Q&A evening.

https://www.rrrplc.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/2022.07.25-RRR_GM_Chairmans_Letter-WEB.pdf

Step by step value is being restored, at 10p a share the company would only be valued at £29m, my near term target range of 6p to 7.5p remains, at 6.p the entire company would only be valued at £17.85m

This is a recovery play, the ultimate goal will be a valuation of £50m+ which is very attainable.

It is impossible to know when the arbitration news will come, the RNS the wording was 'imminent' whilst that could be interpreted in any way it suggests, for balance, a range of 1 week to 1 month. The word imminent should not be used if it is longer than that timeframe IMO.

So do holders stick or twist, problem is anyone selling large chunks of stock will find it exceptionally hard to buy back in any scale, I still believe certain entities are acquiring stealthily as stock comes onto the market also.

Given the sheer amount of news that is expected, it is very dangerous to be out, holding tight seems prudent therefore.