Member Info for HawaiifiveO

Andrew Bell has been inactive on Twitter for 19 hours now, that is something of a record for him, is he returning home, in deep discussions, a settlement been reached, has been advised to keep quiet and not engage with entities seeking info ?

You decide !

In my view we are very close (if not at) the bottom of the cycle, the market is a forward indicator and junior resource stocks have lost, on average, 70% from their Q1 2021 highs, the sector has been in decline for nearly 18 months.

Whilst ORR, and other minnows, are heavily down (an amazing 92% off it's Q1 221 high) the drop has been on low volume, it does not take much volume to move the stock back up.

Having been around during the 2008 crash I recall the same dynamics as now, large % drops, volume drops off, junior companies find a floor, stagnate/stabilise and then a slow recovery kicks in finally leading to larger % upside moves.

I believe we are now at the stagnate/stabilise point, in my view anyone buying a reasonably well funded junior now will profit by year end.

This Twitter link chart shows the % moves to date, keep the faith !

https://twitter.com/Oilplayer2009/status/1543668466791714817?s=20&t=1-mHR_Z-oqoPdOQXrn7dBw

Bell heading out to a business meeting in the Congo tonight, still suggests a news conference is on.

https://twitter.com/ABell2019/status/1547278129357619201?s=20&t=GblY6fwjHgJAiomO8u9IoQ

It seems Bell is still in the Congo and has not returned home as he suggested he would yesterday.

https://twitter.com/ABell2019/status/1547279664044974080?s=20&t=n9AsYcAusBoVDHl3Vlm2Rw

There are two elements to this as we have continually led to believe, one is VUP who owe Red Rock $4.5m and Gecamines who owe $7.5m.

We were told by Bell himself that Gecamines wanted to pay the money ($7.5m) to Red Rock, they also have the ability to pay, they simply wanted confirmation of who to legally pay. At current exchange rates that equates to £6.2m.

I simply cannot understand why there is such an issue here, I think the slippery party must be VUP but why should this effect the $7.5m payment from Gecamines.

This transaction is so material to Red Rock, it is beyond 'normal' business because of it's scale (£10m) compared to a company valued around £5m.

The major shareholders supported Bell at the AGM, they claimed that only Bell would be able to unlock this cash, he has now been in country for 6 weeks, we are all still waiting.

Helpful

Bell himself has created the tension around the situation by saying last Friday he had been successful and had achieved what he had come to the Congo for, he hinted at a announcement, most investors (rightly) thought it would come Monday or Tuesday.

By mid Monday it was discovered that Bell had not left the Congo, he showed a photo of himself and the legal team at salubrious offices (looked like government offices) in country, he then tweeted there would be a news conference today.

Whilst all of this is going on Red Rock shares are tradable, maybe the stock should have been suspended pending a announcement given the scale of the ongoing business.

Has Bell acted prudently by teasing his shareholders, I cannot believe, after 6 weeks in country, Bell would now be sweating on a signature when a press conference was called for today.

As for your claims that everyone knows the numbers and what is going on, I strongly disagree, the last RNS on the topic was back in January, yes a few on this BB may have an idea but the general market most definitely not.

The stakes are high but the charade needs to come to an end with a precise update.

A RNS has to coincide with the news conference today in the Congo surely, anything said would be deemed price sensitive.

Very few folk have any understanding of Red Rock, the stock is thinly traded and pretty tightly held, 3 individuals hold around 24% for example, agreed the company is complicated, projects are spread widely, then there are the suite of royalties and equity stakes, the last broker target (before the Congo event) offered a price of 1.2p

A press conference in the Congo tomorrow suggests something material is about to break, one wonders if we get a RNS at 7am or later in the day, Congo time is exactly the same as BST so it has to come in the morning IMO.

IF Andrew Bell has achieved a reasonable result, which has to include a meaningful sum of cash, then we could be looking at a multi bag opportunity here from a standing start.

One suspects it will be very difficult to buy tomorrow if a RNS does not come at 7am.

Anyone seen the cash raise from Sunrise Res (SRES) today, a mere £100k at a 30% discount to market and having to issue warrants as well, they had to pay their broker in shares.

The good news for ORR, and it's investors, is that the company is extremely well funded and has the potential to sell royalties should the need arise, according to my calculations I believe ORR has around £1.3m in the bank, I also believe the Muratdere royalty could be sold currently for at least £1m.

In these markets cash is king, it needs to be preserved, at least shareholders do not have to worry about funding, there is enough money in the kitty to last into Q1 next year IMO.

I do wonder if Bell has proceeded beyond the actual cash owed situation and is now looking at securing a replacement licence and/or coming to some deal with the major mining company.

Bell has said in the past the 'issue' in the Congo has cost Red Rock hundreds of millions of dollars, the potential early stage compensation is a fraction of that. If the Government are serious that they want to attract mining investors into the country they must stamp down hard on illicit practice.

Maybe Bell had concluded the negotiations concerning the monetary element but out of the blue came a call from a minister or official that wanted to enhance Red Rock's position further, Bell also said that Red Rock are viewed favourably in country.

In all it is a web of intrigue but it could turn out exceptionally rewarding for shareholders, well worth the wait.

I have to admit, despite my reservations, I bought a slice of shares around .18p recently having (wrongly) thought the bottom was in given the share price was off 92% from it's high point.

In respect of the above I fear this post may damage my own wealth but nonetheless I am entitled to my say.

I fear the market is sending a signal that the business model is entirely wrong, how can Oriole fund such huge swathes of exploration land, all projects are early stage, every drill, every trench, every batch of lab testing requires cash that Oriole simply does not have, add to the mix ORR management are taking circa £400k out every year and listing costs and fees add another £300k.

I have a feeling Mr Livesey, due to the fact he is now reducing his media profile, at the same time enhancing his employment portfolio via Non Exec appointment(s) may walk, he has failed to deliver a modicum of value since his tenure, the shares were trading at .95p when he was appointed in early 2018.

It seems this management will never listen, in fact they seem to have become more entrenched, their way is the best way and they are not for turning, dilution seems to be the only model ahead.

To prove otherwise Livesey & Co need to generate a value event that they have continually promised to do for the last 3 years, it has not happened.

Since the new team have been in place the share count has gone from 475m to 2.2 billion, it does not help sentiment that the BOD continually award themselves shares in lieu of salary at absurdly low levels, they awarded themselves 40m options priced at a pathetic .10p back in August 2020, the most recent award was at a VWAP after the shares had fallen 90%, why not send a message and make the awards at a decent premium to market ?

In a nutshell they need to deliver a meaningful event, do a JV in Cameroon, sell assets, think outside the box.

DYOR etc

For what it is worth I believe the re-rate has started, there can be little downside from here, having observed many recovery plays momentum can build quite quickly and strong percentage moves can often happen when least expected.

I fully believe the share price will, near term, reflect the value of the Health and Nutrition business, even now this division is conservatively worth, at the very least £15m - equates to 6.25p per ODX share.

Remember the H&N business is growing so it has potential to attain a far higher rating in due course.

The shares remain a great recovery play IMO.

RNS confirming Abingdon have paid ODX the £630,000 they owed, good news.

The company is moving forward in gradual steps, next finalising the sale of CD4 which currently has a book value of circa £7m.

I re-iterate ODX is a excellent turnaround investment proposition current depressed levels, it over-shot on the upside (90p+) and has wildly overshot on the current downside.

Buy low sell high.

In my view he has succeeded, the only purpose to visit the Congo was to secure the cash that Red Rock are rightfully owed, he said it many times himself.

The question is exactly how much cash has he bagged, one thing I most definitely do not want to see is some form of stage payment because without doubt, probably at the 1st hurdle, there would be a default, for that reason alone I cannot see Bell leaving the Congo without physical cash in the bank or deposited with the solicitors.

If he has succeeded in getting a slug of cash (RRR are owed $12m), lets say higher than $6m, it will be a great result and probably one of his best achievements since Red Rock were listed.

Also bear in mind that if the payment is made in US Dollars the exchange rate is extremely beneficial right now.

So we may have something to look forward to next week, I really hope so for all concerned.

Juno has been featured in Paydirt this week, it looks like their Mount Mason project it targeted for production by this time next year, once in production they will move forward, at pace, on the Mount Ida project where Red Rock holds a $8m royalty position.

https://twitter.com/JunoMinerals/status/1545256343677784064?s=20&t=iAIoztgQGkG1VLIoPlyjSA

One would expect the CFO of ODX will be getting on the phone to Abingdon Health to chase the money that rightfully belongs to Omega, no doubt there may be late payment penalties involved.

One expects there are a number of upcoming catalysts that could restore some confidence, one thing I do know is the company is materially undervalued and when markets eventually recover there should be a re-rate to reflect ever improving events.

Management seem to be getting on with the job which is exactly what they said they would do.

The exact number and situation is as follows, it seems ODX will now receive this sum of money.

'The Company is still owed £628k by Abingdon Health which fell due prior to February 2021 and which is expected to be received in full once Abingdon have concluded a settlement with DHSC'

Just announced, they owe ODX around £800,000 if I recall correctly.

https://www.investegate.co.uk/abingdon-health-plc--abdx-/rns/dhsc-payment-received/202207071251347091R/

Helpful

You suggest there are a number of wriggly parties and imply that if RRR gets its money these parties will not get what they would like to get.

I am somewhat bemused over the wording 'parties', as I understand it, having listened carefully to Bell, the payment due from Gecamines ($7.5m) is only due to Red Rock and not contested, he also said this party is willing to pay, how can this payment effect other parties therefore?

I can understand that the $4.5m due from VUP may be more challenging or is he wanting to secure this from Gecamines as they still owe VUP $2.5m.

Who are the other parties if they are not Gecamines or VUP if I may ask, do you know?

Bell is tweeting away on his personal account today, no idea whether he is in the Congo or not (one suspects he still is)

I feel some update on proceedings in the Congo is well overdue, there have been photos of him with his legal team and references to successes and progress in interviews.

It has now been 6 weeks in country, shareholders expect some form of news, I am worried Bell will come back to London and keep quiet if he has failed in the process leaving everyone guessing.

Make no mistake if he comes home without cash it is a failure, according the apparant spokesperson on this site (Helpful) the major shareholders demanded Bell extract value from RRR's existing projects (something Bell confirmed via an interview) acquiring new projects now without cash will simply not cut it in my view.

What will the major shareholders do if he fails ?