Member Info for Harrycash

Quester put a 'sell' on Just. Why?

Are CNA a good buy at 40p. Is there a possible buyer on the horizon or would the Government block a foreign entity buying into, or outright, CNA. Certainly at these levels the SP appears cheap on a risk/reward basis. The logic being CNA are to big to fail.

All theory of course.

H

Hard to see upside with Covid still.rampant. Three things not to do for the next year, or more. Go on a plane. Go into Hospital. Go on a cruise. All are Covid incubators and 4sure plane fares and cruises will be in a 'fire sale' but should be avoided if you want to survive this pandemic. Hospitals are a necessary evil but again to be avoided if possible.

All theory of course and don't want to be doom and gloom on Saga but hard to see how this heavily indebted business will survive. Ok breakup insurance from travel segments but still no real value other than to the Lenders and bondholders. The latter will get seriously burnt in any restructuring plans and shareholders will get wiped out. Lets hope this dosen't happen but without some divine intervention the Covid nightmare for worldwide business'es will only worsen.

Ji

Good to see you hanging around with this one. Lets hope uptick continues. Obviously B and H plans did'nt work out as they wished but 4sure there will be more interest in FCRM.from VCs if they see profit in a better priced buyout. Covid aside FCRM have more upside now the dust has settled. Certainly hope so its took patience 4sure.

All theory of course but still feels like.a good long term bet and would.be nice if a divi was restated

Thompson

Your 100% correct. I started buying Saga at 100+ with the hope they would rise to 200+. Never happened and like most I watched the 'boat sink'. My mistake. I thought brand name etc was a factor and for that reason failed to do normal due diligence. If I had I would have realised Saga was a debt cow left over from VC ownership. If the world had been perfect and Covid did'nt come around Saga may have prospered. Unfortunately things have not worked out well for Saga on many fronts. Debt. Bad Manangement. Covid. Bad business model overtaken by internet upstarts. For all of these reasons I sold down my Saga holding. Yep on the way down I took a beating, but nothing like the beating anyone still holding will suffer. I'm an optomist and 4sure if I thought Saga would survive I would re-buy at these levels.

No one wants to lose money when we invest but knowing when to sell is as important as knowing when to buy. For me Saga debt will be their demise. Lenders and bondholders hold the key and if they see no upside, which is very unlikey, they will 'sink' Saga. Some say the insurance side is the savior for Saga. Its not. Its writing paper for mainly old folks and trying to compete with comparison websites. No chance. Now more old farts like me use the internet because of Covid and are getting savvy on buying insurance products on line and they see Saga ain't cheap. Another nail in Saga coffin.
All theory of course but lets hope our other investments do better. Hard to pick winners during these times 4sure

Roquemale??

Not sure why your so testy. Need to be calmer if your going to be a successfull imvestor. Just expressed my opinion on what has surely been one of my worst investments. Saga is a sinking ship, excuse the pun. I've held this crap since 100+ and had stops and buy ins set all the way down to where we are now. I took a beating but got rid of most of the shares I held. Sadly I have a few left and like I said 5p is about bottom before they go bust. I'm a patient investor but patience on Saga will not prevail. They will go bust and guys like you will be left wondering what went wrong. Truth is you just did'nt know when to 'jump ship'.

All theory of course and I'm sure more clever people will have a different opinion but its always better to not get personal.

The argument that Saga new ships are 'assets' is way wrong. These ships are bad 'debts'. What else do you call an asset that now has no true value. Their just pieces of metal now being expensively stored that will remain that way for a long time. At the same time your paying interest and upkeep. Come on fellow posters lets get real. Just write off Saga as a bad bet and move on.

Some here are obviously thinking like the ostrich. Stick your head in the sand and it will get better. Nope it will not get better for Saga. Carnival loses 4billion+ shows how bad it truly is for this business model and they are the market leader. 4sure social distancing will impact the cruise industry and 4sure the little players like Saga will not survive. Question. Would anyone posting go on a cruise now. I certainly would not. Covid coffins.

All theory of course and I'm sure those living in hope for Saga to recover will disagree.

Good to see some still holding onto the sinking ship that is Saga. Covid ain't their fault 4sure but its really the final nail in the coffin as far as an investment. I used to hold stops down to 40p but got out on most of those. 5p now seems a reasonable stop but my guess is that will eventually be lost money when they file for bankruptcy.

All theory of course but yeez this was a really bad stock to buy.

Yehh sure you did. If you trade on those muliples why would you waste time chatting here. 12k ok. BS

Ji

Sounds like a bit of doubt creeping in on the odds for Harwood and Bayford cheap buyout plan. My guess is they will fall well short on the shares they need but it still raises concern going forward as to how FCRM will stay listed.

All theory of course and 4sure we agree a fair SP buyout is closer to 100p as against 26p thats now on the table. Opportunists they are indeed taking advantage of the market meltdown. We will see

Ji5006

Who is this guy Mills? I know FCRM is only an Aim stock but you would think buyers would be many given Harwood and Bayford may go 'hostile' and in that scenerio they would need to put more money on the table. Strange were effectively in takeover territory and the SP is stuck at 25/26.

All theory of course but lets hope some VC come along and offer 100p per share. As you say need stay onboard and confident we stay independant and no way I'm giving em my 5 shares for 26p.

FCRM shares are effectively 'blocked ''on trading something to do with Harwood big buy but no outright offer. Rules dictate a bid must be tabled against all the rumour thats surrounding Harwood and Bayford. Real mess.

All theory of course but thats my take on what I'm reading

Ok. Yep. I read they have 39% ++ so this kills the 75% theory on a buy.out but I've been here before on other similar scenrios. Until you get it in 'the bank' ypu ain"t got it. Promise notes mean nothing but I hope we do get 40% then they will up the offer. Time will tell.

Ji5006

Been awhile since i posted. Hate to say I told you so on the Bayford issue and their just using this Hayword outfit as the go between to buy FCRM on the cheap as manangement suggest. At this offer price we lose so my hope is the Board get the backing of more than the 25% they need to block this. However it works out were now 'in play' so lets figure the offer price will improve. I don't want FCRM taken over by opportunistic vultures so lets hope this is totally rejected.

All theory but todays rebuttal is pretty strong and well detailed so lets see what happens. However it works out Bayford will get seats on the Board.

Only caveat is I'm suspicious of the Chairs role in this. I know he's denying it but 2 + 2 doe's not.make 5. Time will tell.

Not posted for awhile. Sad to see Saga at these SP levels. My guess is they will not survive the present demise of the cruise industry. Could say bad timing 4sure as no one knew Corona was on the horizon. No quick fix on this so my guess is they will eventually be brought for peanuts or go bust. Most of the market will continue to decline but travel.related stocks will take years to recover, if ever. Saga is not strong enough to weather the storm. Divi will be gone 4sure. Impossible to maintain FCF and pay this out from what. More debt 4sure but who is brave enough.to lend now to the travel.sector?

Ji and Bellers

Still rangebound in low 20s. Have to wonder when we will see some upside. I know patience is a virtue but this SP is bloody frustrating. They say no news is good news but be nice to see a postive RNS to clear the air.

Ji
Hardly overwhelmed by the CEO news. Now we need a CFO. Market not impressed either.

Ji

Looking back over the last weeks trades there look to be some chunky trades that appear to be on the buy side. That said the SP has drifted lower on a bad week for the markets overal but were rangebound until we get completion on the asset sale or a new CEO announced. My guess is FCRM lian facility has a high premium hence their wish to pay it off and get a new deal?

All theory of course but be nice to see some SP upside or at least the divi reinstated.

Its called shafting the shareholders but feeling their.own pockets