Member Info for Harrycash

Tigger and Pok

Sounds like a lot of wishful thinking here. Easy to read the positives in recent WG statements if your long on the shares. Accepting the negatives is the key to understanding why the SP has 'tanked'.

Question. What happens if the legacy issues become bigger than 200m. If so then 4get divi's. The cash burn will be too great with Capex needs and servicing the debt, not principle, a real problem.

I'm hopeful WG can do better. Time will tell but my thoughts are just theory based on analysis of what I see.

HC

Pok

Hopefully my previous, rather overlong post, gave clarity to my earler comments.

HC

Pok and Pad

Obviously my comments hit a nerve, wasn't intentional, but if your doing this kind of investing being sensitive ain't a good call. Your real issue should be with the analyst's who feel WG ain't doing well (not oil well), and give out their not so wise advice on SP targets.

My 'stop' has been set for awhile, lowered it as the news flow dictated, and averaged down which is a normal investment strategy . I'm not a day trader so I look for reasonable long term investments. When the world was normal WG. looked ok, paying a divi, etc. The legacy issue was kinda in the price when I brought but results since, and no divi, are not exactly heart warming.

Then Covid came, and WG started to be more transparent, easy to do on the back of Covid, so a bit of smoke and mirrors on legacy issues, income stream, capex, and debt. The latter being a real issue. Add the estimated price tag of 200m to correct legacy issues, and we now have what could be termed as a 'bad investment'. The estimate of 200m could change given the countries involved took the hump at Westerners robbing em. These guys ain't known to be squeaky clean, and if they see more grift is possible they will hit WG. Either in the pocket, or asset strip. Will not be the first time and certainly will not be the last. Look up history on Anglo's investing overseas, you will find many companies like WG who got fleeced.

All theory of course, and I can't read tealeaves, so my hope is WG at these prices attract a VC, and get a reasonable offer. Time will tell but in the meantime I repeat that reinstatement of the divi would help.

HC

Poker

Need to look back to my first post to see the origins of broker suggesting WG. 233p as a bottom. I just looked and see Jeffries at 260p from 240p. The big problem is really the unknown costs on legacy issues from Amec days. Pencilled in 200m but who knows. Far flung countries can change the rules around past corruption in an instant and seize assets. Tough call but we knew about these issues which were flagged when WG. brought Amec, et al.

Anyway I'm holding at a loss so if my 'stop' at 235p gets breached I will rebuy. Reinstatement of the Divi would give investors confidence but I don't see any suggestion that that will happen.

All theory of course but not one of my better investments.

HC

Looking at this share drop is painful. My guess is the guidance on the bottom at 233p looks likely.

Without positives the SP will continue to drift.

HC

Bunch of trades yesterday 10:05 to 10:06. Totaled 330,000+ sold into the open market. Odd trades for FCRM bring so lightly traded. ?

HC

Pip

We beg to disagree on Smart Meters. Sure FCRM SMS are different but similar. Big difference is FCRM has a'spine' platform which for me appears important as applied to end to end capability.

My logic suggests this market will expand in both domestic and commercial. EV, be it linked to charge points at home or in car parks, forcourts, etc. They will require Smart Meters that segment tariff rates. Bit like off peak as we have at home but these Smart Meters will be specific to EV needs. I'm not suggesting were at that point yet in the UK or USA but its already happening here in Asia. EV networks are already being built and Smart Meters play a part linked to payment methods already. Example. You charge your EV at 6pm and pay 10p a unit, high tariff, you charge your EV at 6am and pay 5p a unit, low tariff. This is displayef and linked to any payment method. Its a way to control.usage and the Grid abikity to cope simply because by offering differing tariffs EV owners will opt for lower tariff rates when possible. Result the Grid is not maxed out at certain high usage periods.

All theory of course but I was in the elec infrastructure game all my working life and this is the future. Add in hydrogen use and again Smart Meters of some type will be involved.

My poker game is improving and yesterday had a stock winner for a change with SPI. Gives me hope FCRM will come good.

HC

Pip

Lets see if FCRM can capitalise on the domestic to commercial side on Smart Meters. My guess is they can and 4sure these will be part of the EV revolution.

Whether you have a SM now or in the future they will be the standard. Big brother no choice in the end.

Had a win today at last, and not in Poker. SPI came good so on this basis there is hope even for FCRM

HC.

On the question of smart meters.

Pip. Your coreect. SMS return on Capex meter count us far higher than FCRM. Why? Is it because the product is better.

Ji. Smart meters will be intrinsic with EV. Theory suggests that EV charging points will be everywhere within 5 to 10 years. Home. Forcourts. Car Parks. Etc. Usage can be billed on Credit/Debit cards or a Smart meter account. This suggests massive growth plus infrastructure build to go in tandem.

HC

Ji and Pip

Not sure I'm following the witless and liberty thread.

As for the 99,000 buy. My theory is this is just a possible book build by Proxy. Note that I say possible simply because I have no real idea. I'm just guessing.

If Turner, or any others involved in FCRM know something that they know will be good for the SP in the future they can use this method to have shares purchased on their behal Bit like a broker that say liases with a Family Trust Executor. It ain't difficult.

Another guess, that is far better for shareholders, is its a VC book build. This is more likely but worth watchng trade patterns in the coming days.

All theory of course but glad to report that my poker skills are improving.

HC

Pip

Nice post.

Kinda agree on some points. Basically, and using your views suggests FCRM are selling the 'silver' to cheaply. Again suggests Bayford are looking at FCRM as a cheap entry point into the markets their involved.

Tip. Look at the 99,000 buy. Odd trade on a lightly traded stock. 100,000+ gets flagged. Possible bookbuild in play.

All theory of course but interesting times 4sure. Gonna go back to online Texas Hold Em. Easier.

No response as yet from LSE.

HC

Just a point.

Good news yesterday resulted in 24 odd trades with a 1p uptick. No volume trades to give concern or hope.

First two trades today. One for 5 shares, two for 50 shares. No change in the SP. Really?

HC

Jab

I don't disagree, and I think in the past you could have viewed FCRM as basically a good old fashioned ditch digging elec/gas infrastructure company. Bit like old school outfits like Murphys, Kellys, et al. These old school companies diversified, and morphed into very profitable, and well run companies, that in the main have been swallowed by bigger players. I know I was part of one such company in bygone days.

Anyway, the point is FCRM has also diversified into other area's. EV capability, hydrogen use and storage, and Smart Metering, etc, are all the future, and offer huge growth opportunities. Whether the present management structure at FCRM is up to the task is the big question. I view the ditch digging side of FCRM as important, and very relevant. It gives them the 'spine' to augment the other segments at 'in house' costs with full control. Effectively they control end to end capability.

You have to question why Bayford are so interested and intent on controlling FCRM. Turner becomes a major shareholder, with a big say, and partial control of the Board. He is clearly a pretty switched on guy. He knows what's coming down the road with omission legislation, and regulation, that is set to change our use of combustion engine motor vehicles within 10 years, or less. He also knows the Government is tripping over itself to hand out incentives, and tax breaks, to companies involved in the needed infrastructure.

Bayford/Turner demonstrated their intent with the new Smart Metering Contract awarded to FCRM valued at 20million+. This is a good move on their part, giving them major input into FCRM cash flow going forward. My guess is similar contracts will be added, retailers, councils, etc, given the demand for what FCRM has to offer.

There is also a huge tax advantage to consider. Bayford/Turner in their holding in FCRM comes under Aim tax rules that are very friendly, and a pretty airy fairy. Add that FCRM Audited Accounts are prepared in accordance with domicile, which is a friendly far flung place that is very tax friendly, and so, very attractive. So in simple math, with linked ownership. Pay 20 million+ to your linked ownership company, that is then Audited in a new Tax regime. Profit/loss whatever you want. Kinda illegal, but not.

All theory of course but I hope to see SP uptick. If not my 'stop' stays at 30p.

HC

My recent posts guide towards the positive. Big caveat is the impending AR, when we don't know but soon we hope. Given the buys by Directors et al, plus good RNS on new business infers good news will continue but I'm concerned were being 'softened up' for possible bad AR.

Maybe I'm getting a bit paranoid but I'm keeping my 'stop' at 30p for now.

All theory of course and I do hope the SP fly's higher in the coming months.

HC

At the end of the day not so great but on low volume trades 1p is better than nothing. Today may see upside if FCRM get any positive media coverage.

I've been comparing SMS to FCRM similar companies in parts with SMS a larger player but look at SMS SP, over 800p. Difference seems to be transparency which FCRM lacks. Add the cash position of SMS and a divi, both strengths. FCRM was in a good cash position and paid a divi. Now both in the negative. If this can change then FCRM SP may, big may, could improve significantly in the next 12 months.

All theory but time will tell.

HC

Todays RNS is really good given Ofgem announced on the same day half a billion to be invested in EV which links directly to smart metering.

Bayford and FCRM are now clearly expanding their footprint in this field as first movers. Expect more deals with major retailers, forcourts, councils, etc, etc.

Much depends on the Annual Results that as noted before can be at anytime up to 1st October. The latest RNS on contract wins with increased revenue streams looks to re-rate FCRM. Lets see if brokers up the SP guidance.

Reading tealeaves ain't accurate but I guess AR will be early June. Hope so.

Take out price will be above 50p given vested options start at 52p so the in place management will not support any offer lower than this. Lets hope we see other interestsd investors or VC join the party.

All theory of course but for a change a good day.

HC

Todays RNS is called Nepotism.

Anyone that still thinks Bayford is not the predator, with a likely reverse takeout now likely, needs to reconsider.
HC

Pip

Thanks . Thar'll work.

HC

First post so hope to get some reasonable feedback.

Unfortunately held Wood Group for awhile. Kinda concerned at the SP dropping like a stone. Jeffries reduced to 230p, others like UBS up to 350p, but basically all downgrades across the board.

With forecasts of oil prices returning to $100 PB I have to think the major players in the oil industry will up their Capex which logic suggests benefits WG. Decommissioning of old well heads in the NS and other far flung places should again help WG.

Their expansion into renewables should be a plus but its a long winded, excuse the pun (windmills), operation to get revenue/profit cycles.

All theory of course but my only real concern is debt. My guess is any new 'facility' will be on favourable terms but not sure what credit rating applies to WG debt. Any info ??

HC

Pip.

Apologies. I looked back on your earlier posts and you confirmed the email was from Craig Baugh. Can you copy/paste the whole thing as I'm gonna go to the LSE with the issue of FCRM giving investors misleading information that could, or could not, affect their own judgement in investing in FCRM. Subsequently that investor could have suffered significant losses.

Example. At the time of the email the SP was say 37p to 38p. Its today sitting at 34p. If it now transpires that FCRM issue bad Annual Results, say before the deadline of 1st October, this delayed information will/may give rise to the Investor suffering further losses. This is not a 'buyer beware' scenario. This is an Investor using sound judgement based upon provided information.

The question in respect of Graig Baugh saying 'we expect' is mute. If the information was wrong, albeit a bit vague, it should not have been issued; full stop. My guess is the LSE would view such incorrect and misleading information as an issue.

All theory of course. Ain't life interesting.

HC