Member Info for Harrycash

Seems a lot here have jobs as star watchers in the belief that one day a shooting star will appear. That star being HBR and suggestions that the SP will double. Ok if that's only partly true that equates to the old SP of 20p becoming 40p. This is a longggggg way from where PMO SP was say 24 months ago so really unless you brought in at sub 20p where is the upside. I'm guessing most here are just trying to limit their existing exposure. (Losses)

Investors like me have been around for awhile. I thought PMO would be a winner but then Covid came and before that oil prices tanked. If the PMO mangement had not panicked we would all be in profit today with PB oil price at $75+ . Instead they bailed and said sod investors and we ended up diluted by a new gang of crooks.

Those that spout on about HBR being a cash cow, quoting the math and average of analysts opinons, and fag packet numbers are frankly talking crap. I've been doing this for awhile and I took my eyes of the ball as far as PMO was concerned. Covid kinda responsible but my call so my mistake.

I get frustrated by pretty amature investors doing the math on the likes of HBR and telling us mortals we don't know nowt. Unfortunately that ain't the way it works. These new HBR crooks are far cleverer than me so I suggest others wise up to the same facts.

Anyeay. Bad investment so just accept it and move on.

All theory of course and I'm sure some wiser investors than me will express a more positive idea.

HC

Some here are saying HBR is a certain win win. I remember similar sentiments when it was PMO. This is PMO, but now renamed as HBR, same animal just different money men with the old gang long gone with their pots of cash. It appears that some investors have forgotten that along the way, from PMO to HBR, that we who owned PMO shares got raped and pillaged.

Question. What makes you think HBR will not do the same. Some suggest they know about the debt, FCF, ROC, Capex, etc, etc. They don't. Only the HBR money men know the full picture. If those waxing on about HBR being a win win truly understood the numbers they would not buy HBR shares. Full stop.

All theory of course but the one comment I do agree on is to put these shares away, in a dark place, and revisit them in 12 months and see if the SP has improved. If you ask me what I think I need to be truthful and say I have no idea.

HC

Wow. Some irate posts here. Just be cool treat it like a game of Poker. Ok with HBR your holding the weakest hand but at the 'river' it could improve, or not.

The question. Are you willing to keep paying to see the 'river' or will you fold, and lose anyway.

All theory of course but clearly HBR is unloved by the MM's.

HC

Hard to see HBR as undervalued given most, if not all, of the oil and gas it produces is hedged well below market prices. Until these positions close I don't see it being the cash cow suggested. At present its basically servicing past debt. Sure this will reduce but by then oil and gas prices may also worsen to the downside.

As far as I can see 20p a share looks much better than 398p on volume weighted trades.

If you hold these shares you already got shafted by PMO. Put em in a drawer and 4get them for a few years because HBR will lilely do the same. Actually they already did it.

All theory of course but not one of my better investments.

HC

With MRW now part of a feeding frenzy by HF awash with cash we must look for their next target.

Rumours this year of HF talking to CPI were debunked. My guess is there was more truth to this rumour than not.

CPI ain't going bust which was the biggest drag on the SP over recent years. Their clearly turning the corner with more focus, and offloading non core parts of the company to improve the balance sheet. FCF should improve with ROC flagged to be positive in H2.

All this begs the question. Will a HF pounce. My guess is yes with the SP as these levels why not.

CPI got ****y in the past and over extended under bad management. That said its still a solid UK company with a great revenue stream backed by Gov contracts that under new terms will provide profit. A lot of the non profit legacy contracts have been ended or will be soon. The days of taking loss making contracts just to increase revenue appears to be over. Margjns are clearly improving so again ROC will be positive in H2

Some may say debt is an issue. For me that's one of the attractions for any HF. They have cheap money and any debt offsets on the buy side and is a real bonus.

All theory of course but lets see if a few HF see CPI as an easy target.

HC

So with Pemex given state control is HBR part ownership, be it under license or otherwise, now worthless and is this just another third world country shafting the fools that invested in their back yards.

HC

In answer to the questions.

PB means Per Barrel.

Have I listened to the latest presentation. No. That's why I asked the question on existing hedge (s), and what volume of PB production was hedged, and how many hedged Contracts exist, expire, etc. If anyone has the answers I would appreciate the information.

My point was that if these are existing hedge Contracts under PMO management, are HBR duty bound to honour these. Obviously once these expire new hedge(s) would likely be more profitable given the present PB price of crude, that if the analysts are correct will continue to rise.

HC

On the existing forward Hedge Contracts. Where has 2023 come from as an end to the present Hedge Contracts. These presumably rolled over from PMO to the newly formed company that is HBR. What PB volumes are involved in the existing hedge(s).

At present HBR is giving away their PB daily count at well below the market PB price. I accept their quoted PB Capex indicates they still make money, but this is capped, and will only improve once existing hedge's lapse. When is the question.

No comparison here with HBR to the likes of BP, a well established multi national that makes money and pays divi's and has not low balled its hedges on its entire PB outage. As different as apples and oranges, and if PMO taught us anything its that the money men that controlled PMO took investors for fools.

All theory of course but I'm looking well into the future to break even on this bad investment, and that's only if I'm really lucky, and oil PB stays at 75+ PB for a few years.

HC

PFC. Think its called ramping. Hard to compare PFC to WG. Different animal in similar segments. My guess is WG have more upside given.legacy issues are kinda resolved in respect of cost cap.

All theory of course. Time will tell but averaging down on WG may be more rewarding than PFC. Time will tell.

HC

Whatever upside fir WH was tempered by PFC saying Capex from.oil majors had not yet improved in line with rise in the oil price. As it is Projects will likely continue to be depressed whilst forward consulting should logically result in new Projects in 2022/3/4/5.

All theory but still good news on legacy issues.

HC

Good news on the legacy issues that are now effectively settled. Fridays, and todays news should draw a line under this with 177m now noted as the setllement figure. Clearly WG self reporting of the issues and cooperation meant the regulators involved, both here and the US, paid off for WG so they got some credit.

Question. Is this 177m agreed settlement a 23m reduction on the 200m guidance number.

This news should help the SP, and possibly put BR on the back foot if they need to close their shorts.

All theory but I see this news as positive and removes the 'risk factor'

HC

So on the first day of consolidated shares we lost. 30+p per share. Not a great start and those backing the RBC guidance of 650p may have a long wait.

Whilst a penny stock HBR had atttractions.. At 18p to 30p range it was possible to make up on averaging down that appeared cheap. Now each share is 360+ so this is no longer tge case. It now appears expensive. I know some will say same same but its the perception.

Anyway with PB Oil at $70+ HBR hedge on forward production should give a real lift to FCF in the future if their present hedge's are not 'locked'. Their PB costs to current PB prices give impressive upside.

All theory but can't see much upside at present.

HC

BR and other short outfits are not always correct. BR got a kicking with their short on Morrisons a week ago. Lets hope its repeated with WG. That said my stop at 186p remains.

HC

This sounds like good news for WG with a cap at $18million on this investigation. They self reported on these legacy issues so is this a reason for a low settlement or are their other cases with the SFO. Like to know if the 200m guidance is now deemed a high bar on legacy issues.

HC

On the question of Joe Biden. A respected stateman and so far so good.

After 4 years of watching that Fat Orange fool diminish the US on the world stage it will take time to correct his total failure as President. Did we expect anything better. Not really. This bully of a gameshow host, and wannabee gangster was always going to fail. Problem was we had no idea he would cause the death of over 500,000 poor souls in the process.

Time will not be kind to this fool and the US legal system will see him busted, and he sychophants.

HC

Thinks it called 'sitting on the fence'. Such wisdom is aamazing and I'm sure we can read and learn.

Sad really. All theory.of course.

HC

Well that was a painful day but help's with the averaging down approach. New stop looks like 10% off the days low of 206. New stop at 186p as a re-entry point. Just a guessing game at present with MMs dictating the bottom.

Update I thought was not good, but not really a disaster. Forward guidance similar to the last update, with no change on full year but confirmed improvement in Q2/H2. Projects was bad with Covid used as a reason. Not sure I agree on that 100%. Order book increase was a positive, with improved profit forecast on newly won projects. Consult and services side is positive with higher margins over Projects. EBITDA. Their looking to achieve c9.6% overall which is positive.

Debt remains high and increased to 2.5x but they say it will drop in H2 2021. Outflows to contracts exaggerate that number and should correct once ROC is achieved. Covenants at 3.5x give no cause for concern.

Decisions on legacy issues they suggest will conclude Q2/H2 2021. Time will tell, but again the 200million cost is still speculative.

All theory of course but lets hope things improve on the SP today. Oil PB keeps rising and that should help WG if only because the oil majors have more cash to splash.

Sadly there was no shining knight (HF) riding to the rescue. Again, time will tell.

HC

Hardly exciting update with more negatives than positives, and the consolidation on the shares is unlikely to help. This penny share will look expensive .

Guess by days end sub 20p likely. Hope not.

HC

It appeared on the headline news as great. MRO to pay-out 15p a share as a special divi. Sadly, its based on a consolidation of shares where you basically lose one in ten shares but get 15p a share on your current holding. So if you now own 10 shares you get - 10 x 15 = 150 special payment, but your 10 shares then becomes 9. This management team have a history of playing silly with finances and rewarding them selves handsomely.

Question. If the SP now drops what is the benchmark. If it rises, again what is the benchmark.

Its just smoke and mirrors with their spin on it being that less shares out there means the remaining ones will be more valuable. Sadly only the MM dictate the share price. Very confusing. As others have said why not just pay a special divi, END OFF.

There are some posters here who for all their bluster that WG were a solid investment have now got out. Obviously a good move given where the SP is now but these same posters said my past comnents were garbage and I was too negative with my 'stops'. I'm confused. At Ieast I stand by my comments but they just keep changing theirs to justify what exactly. Investing stradegy. Nahhh

Shcwee maks valid points. Again related to legacy issues that are clearly impacting the SP. This will continue until we get a clearer picture on exposure and end cost.

The comment that you don't buy a big company because the SP has tanked is wrong. It is one of the main reasons you do buy it. It was added that better to see if the sector turns. Think given present PB oil price that has already happened.

Question. Is a HF looking at WG. Very likely. Is consolidation an option. A good chance.

Is there break up value in WG. No idea I ain't that clever but I'm sure any HF would see value at the present low SP valuation.

Legacy and writedowns are now being presented by some posters who said they were no big deal only weeks ago.

So what exactly is dragging the SP down daily. Some say 'shorts' are the problem. Maybe but there has to be more to it. Nervous investors are thinking the worst is my guess and could have covered their exposure with multiple shorts other than the big players like BS. This alone could be the problem but if the shorts reverse on the 24th they will need to cover their positions fast. That may happen and demand would 'surge' the SP. Of course it could go the other way where the short call is correct then the SP will tank.

All theory of course but too many posters here flip flop day by day just to express obscure views and theories without real reasoning.

HC