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Cxs1

Had an old stop on Saga at 40p at which price I would consider a rebuy to average down my present reduced shareholding. Never got to 40p so left it in place. The next trading update is the catalyst for me. If bad will dispose of what shares I still hold but if reasonable would hope to pick up shares on the cheap and as I said average down.

Its not just Saga in their sectors who are suffering. Most are and the demise of Thomas Cook and Monarch testify to this. That said those remaining can pick up the slack in the travel market. Insurance side is basically in a cage fight with other younger players whose platforms are far more efficient and on a low cost base by comparison.

I brought Saga for its brand name. I also brought AA for the same reason. Both at present a mistake. Whereas AA. Is recovering and retains its first advantage position Saga has not. My hope is the new CEO will change things but his CV ain't great so time will tell. First job is scrap the reduced divi and save the cash to manage debt. Next would be to seperate the business model to gain value that may please the market and boost the SP.

All theory of course but the above would possibly give a bullish view on Saga. Be nice if we got our money back but if the SP did rise to a breakeven position I would sell ASAP and invest the funds elsewhere. Here's hoping

Michael

Nice post but really look at the FCF and relate this to the debt on Saga books, be it old debt or new debt its still.debt. Some say Saga has 'intangibles' but basically worthless accountant speak. The servicing of the total debt removes any chance of FCF with a reduced divi sucking the life out of the same cash stream. Do you really think the new boats are asset positive?. The answer is no. As soon as their built and floating they are a cash drain and a depreciating asset. There are two good days when you own a boat. 1: the day you buy it and 2: the day you sell it. I know I brought one albeit it was not a cruise ship.

Saga brought new boats for millions when the cruise market was in decline. Now they need to pay for them and fll them with heavily discounted deals using third party agents who charge them 10% commission. Hardly a winner when your in competion against thr major players like Royal Carebean who already offer 50% discounts and use in house agents on low commision. Add to this that people think Saga cruises are for old farts like me which deters many. Might be an idea to change the logo from Saga.

All theory of course and I would really like to be wrong on Saga and get my investment back. Lets give it a few months or until the next trading update. If its bad be ready to 'jump ship'

Hi Jed

Not sure i'm out to short Saga. Wish I had when I brought in at 100p+. My view on Saga is pretty constant. Its a crap investment that's cost me money and as much as I'd like to say it's going to do well, I just can't. You and others here keep saying it will recover. Why exactly are you maintaining that view. If someone can show me the fundementals on Saga are anything other than crap I'm happy to listen.

Having a new CEO may, or may not, improve the business. For me the only winners will be both lenders and bond holders and shareholders way down on the list. Elliot being part may give investors a bit of power but don't hold your breath as to date theve been pretty passive.

All theory of course but expressing views that I feel valid on any stock I hold only looks to help everyone. Just thinking your investment in Saga will win out in the end will not work. There has to be logic applied and looking at accounts etc. My logic and read on Saga numbers lead me to believe that Saga will eventually fail in its present guise. It needs to change or be broken up. Then maybe we will all get our money back.

On a positive note. Every time I post that the SP will rise or fall it doe's the oposite.

This article posted by peterlowen says it all. Just wild rumours by those 'caught short' on PMO stock. Slight negative on the day SP I'm sure but PMO Tweet shows their disdain for this obvious market manipulation. You have to think who exactly is giving this insider information to the Press over two weekends. My guess is those holding the short positions who are trying to tank the SP so they can close their positions.

All theory of course but given the actions by those holding the short positions suggest their really nervous and believe PMO could be heading higher so their desperate to close out their short positions

Sad to see Saga not benefiting from market gains post Tory win. My guess is Saga is viewed as a 'terminal' stock that will eventually fail. Have to agree and unless the business is broken up to achieve value it will continue to destroy shareholder value.

All theory of course but what a bad investment this was.

An RNS is not required given its just 'rumour' by the press based on historic issues on short positions that were concealed. Now these shorts are known the holder(s) of this paper are in full panic and it must be assumed are behind the newsflow that looks to tank the SP and cover their short position. Given the SP rose in early trades it may force them to close their short positions if they think the SP will continue to rise. My guess is each 1p rise costs them a million given the size of the short.

All theory of course but for me PMO are not overly concerned by this distraction

Think its called 'false information' and I'm guessing the same journalist is peddling this stuff knowing full well it will impact the SP. The words 'insider trading' come to mind but not sure those involved are dumb enough to place 'shorts' on PMO and then issue this alarmist newsflow. Saying that a guy who worked for the Sun did exactly this a few years ago.

All theory of course but PMO ain't TLW so nerves are needed on what is a pretty solid stock.

Think its called 'false information' and I'm guessing the same journalist is peddling this stuff knowing full well it will impact the SP. The words 'insider trading' come to mind but not sure those involved are dumb enough to place 'shorts' on PMO and then issue this alarmist newsflow. Saying that a guy who worked for the Sun did exactly this a few years ago.

All theory of course but PMO ain't TLW so nerves are needed on what is a pretty solid stock.

Fingers and toes crossed then.

Weekend press reports that debt holders want their money back will spook the market on Monday. Basically these people are attempting to muscle PMO into a corner before repayment dates in 2020/21. Sell the parts of the company they deem worth a few bob and have a rights issue to deal with the debt. If this happens our value in the shares get's diluted but we become debt free. Not sure I'm adverse to that if it gets this vultures gone but the caveat is the price of oil. If it maintains present price then ok but if we see a significant drop were in trouble. My guess is were involved in a poker game between PMO and the vultures. Who blinks first is anyones guess but given PMO present forward asset value there will be other vultures out there willing to give PMO new debt. Problem is this nonsense will likely mean higher margins on any new debt.

All theory of course but this problem has only arisen because of the undeclared short that has obviously gone bad to those holding the 'short notes'. This negative newsflow is looking to drop the PMO SP to support the short position. Not sure what their 'short stop' was but at present with the SP on the up means their taking a beating and if this continues they will be forced to close the position. Serves em right if this happens but we need caution whilst this plays out. It maybe that the Regulator will step in under the 'market manipulation' rules that are clearly being broken.

Cxs1
Hope your correct so the grandkids will get a present or two for Xmas. Think Boris seeing off Corbyn and his commie mates will result in significant uptick today in the markets but sterling strength may limit this a bit.

Saga could get a lift with the uptick in the market generally but we have to hope the travel sector gets a boost as well. Insurance and other parts of the business will remain under pressure so a big 'hammer' is needed.

All theory of course but Saga could be broke up now Brexit is in sight and Elliot will have a plan 4sure now Boris is set for 5 years.

Sad to to see Swinson and Corbyn got smashed. Sure they can get jobs in Xmas pantomine as wicked witch and the wizard of oz

Well I would like to say I was wrong given today's uptick on the SP. Obviously a delayed response to the new CEO so hope it continues.

Not sure I agree on these trading pattern theories, 'hammer heads' and such. If a share is doing well it means the company is likewise. if not the SP tanks as is Saga historic fall from 100p +. Sadly those days are gone and 22 days of downside is not; by logic, going to be reversed by some guy with a 'hammer'.

All theory of course lets hope the SP continues to rally.

If you look at the 'shorts' list on a daily basis you will see historically that PMO do.not appear. Why is the question given the likes of WG. And IQE appear weekly. Hardly accurate tables of 'shorts' in play.

Try not to post here to often, it's depressing when I think I brouht this crap as an investment. Anyway thought I'd put my two bob in on the new CEO.

Well itts obvious Saga have gone to the 'cleaners' to get a new CEO (excuse the pun. Eg. Superdry). Who is this guy and has he any experience whatsoever in travel, big boats or insurance. My guess is no and from what your all saying no one is overwhelmed. The SP certainly suggests the markets believe he's not a perfect fit. Anyone know what his pay grade is and is he ikely to just take the money and run if the big boats start sinking? . Obviously NZ is to far away so we don't need to worry on that score.

Anyone think the divi will be scrapped. You know the new CEO being a new broom and all that crap??

All theory of course but I really can't see the upside to Saga. Possibly not all their fault as us old farts don't really want a Saga sticker on our suitcases anymore. Bit like Butlins and Pontins. Well past the sell buy date. As for the insurance side. Well its called runming on the spot and not moving just shuffling money around to get some FCF to pay the new CEO.

Most here appear confused as to why the SP tanked on Monday blaming missdeeds by the Regulator. Seems a bit harsh given the fall in the main resulted from TLW awful update. Add to that the huge short on PMO declared on Friday and highlighted in the press over the weekend.

Reading the short position press release makes clear the holder was hedging their PMO debt holding. Logical really given oil prices are under pressure and if US shail production increases the prices will be pressured more. The outcome in the eyes of the debt holders being PMO will be unable to repay its debt and default so the short covers this scenerio. Looking at PMO positive updates thru 2019 suggest this will not be a problem and I have to agree given their solid attempts at debt reduction. Add to this OPEC wiilingness to cut production to maintain oil prices albeit China is a concern and the US is now a nett exporter of oil.

All theory of course but PMO have come a long way over recent years and I remain invested. World economies will dictate oil prices so wait and see what happens. Oil stocks are similar to tobaco stocks. Both in decline in the new world of today but it will be at least 10 years before the full impact is known.

TLW obviously upset the market with a knock on to PMO. Other factor is the huge short that existed, and possibly still in place on PMO. This will also have spooked investors albeit the short was not increased since June which suggests cold feet on those holding PMO debt for 2027.

All theory of course but PMO continue to have a good news flow so I remain invested.

You may be correct but the M&G portfolio is mainly retail parks but 4sure will spook the markets big time. This outfit are in the super retail end of the market, Amazon etc, so they may avoid the sell off. Holding fire on any investment till the dust settles and other retail oreintated funds get 'dumped' from Monday onwards with all the negative weekend press.

Not posted for awhile but see others remain optomistic on Saga. Can't say I see much upside but maybe a postive trading update will help the SP. UBS indication price of 49p looks high given fundementals on Saga are still awful and my guess is the reduced divi is at risk. Pointless really given the business is bleeding its FCF on this and interest payments.

All theory of course but better Saga retained its FCF and attempt to reduce the debt. New CEO may take that step as a 'new broom' policy that most would agree to I'm sure.

Ra757

Think ji5006 said we will get update by 14th after he spoke to them. This would be in line with your comments on delayed discosure over 2019. Hopefully what we get told will be beneficial to the SP.

All theory of course but with headline news on electric car growth and promises of huge infrastructure spend it must be that FCRM have a 'first start' advantage. Not sure how involved they are in end product, charging stations, in this sector but they are heavily into supplying the source infrastructure. Just on the basis that all petrol stations and supermarkets will need this 'service' to their customers suggests growth potential for companies like FCRM is huge and my guess is in high demand that should translate into better margins. Supply and demand dictates that aspect of any business.

Thought we went ex divi last month?