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I'm not really sure what to think anymore, but de facto they already tried once at the end of March but were destroyed halfway through the Tennet deal at 46p. This is now the second attempt.
I can only say this much: anyone who knows anything about the politics of continental Europe and the objectives of the political decision-makers knows that the deal to sell the German part of the grid to Tennet for around 22 billion will be finalised.
The electricity grid is central, even elementary, for achieving the net-zero targets by 2050. The Netherlands and Tennet have no interest in making these billions in investments for Germany and Germany cannot afford not to have full control over the centrepiece of the German electricity grid, the costs are secondary.
Even the elections in the Netherlands are unlikely to change this, because even if Wilders comes to power, he will only be able to form a minority government and, at best, will be tolerated by his political opponents. The political decisions will still be made by the same party (VVD Mark Rutte).
I must therefore disappoint all those who believe otherwise. The Tennet framework contract with a value of approx. 14bn $ (50:50 Hitachi / Petrofac split) until approx. 2030 will probably be executed as planned regardless of the headwinds. See also today's press release "MHB secures RM1.2 bil subcontract for offshore substation from Petrofac" ( RM1.2 bil = approx. 200 million pounds)
If you are invested here in any form, whether short or day trader etc., I can at least understand your behaviour to a certain point.
However, if this is not the case, you really do seem to have a serious problem that requires medical treatment. Have a quiet moment to think about it.
By the way, some of your posts are deliberately misleading or simply wrong and are on the edge of legality, or have already crossed it.
Just unbelievable when you look at the numbers a little closer:
https://www.securitiesfinancetimes.com/securitieslendingnews/industryarticle.php?article_id=226675&navigationaction=industrynews&newssection=industry
For the UK, energy service provider Petrofac (PFC) was the top shorted stock with 96.20 million shares borrowed and 18.43 per cent of SI Outstanding.
Well, if things continue like this, I'll probably soon be the majority shareholder in Petrofac.
Joking aside
If Petrofac doesn't go bankrupt before, 2024 should be a fantastic year for Petrofac.
US recession will prompt 175 basis points (1.75%) in Fed cuts next year, DB economists say
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-recession-prompt-175-basis-204212130.html
If he is right, this is fantastic news for us. (at least for those with a long breath)
More good news.
https://www.thestar.com.my/news/world/2023/11/28/kenya-starts-privatization-of-11-state-owned-firms-to-raise-revenue
Small excerpt:
"Among the entities slated for privatization are the National Oil Corporation of Kenya, which engages in oil field exploration, importation and sale of refined oil products, the Kenyatta International Convention Center which promotes conference tourism, and the Kenya Pipeline Company which holds a monopoly on gas and oil transportation."
US recession will prompt 175 basis points (1.75%) in Fed cuts next year, DB economists say
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-recession-prompt-175-basis-204212130.html
If he is right, this is fantastic news for us. (at least for those with a long breath)
If this becomes reality, this factor alone should drive us up by around 1/4 or more.
Tue, 21st Nov 2023 18:33 Alliance News
Finally, Tullow Oil is expected to be promoted to the FTSE 250. The oil and gas explorer and producer has seen shares advance 12% in the last month taking its market value to GBP543.1 million. Last Wednesday, it raised free cash flow guidance and agreed a USD400 million debt facility with Glencore Energy UK Ltd, part of Glencore PLC which it said was a "material step in our refinancing strategy."
I've just realised that the first link doesn't work.
https://www.cleanenergywire.org/news/court-ruling-forces-german-government-reshuffle-climate-policy-funds-worth-60-billion-euros
I have a suspicion what caused the extremely sharp fall in bonds and stocks.
I could be wrong, but here are my thoughts anyway.
The war in Gaza, Ukraine and higher treasury yields may all play their part, but in this particular case I think it is really Petrofac specific and only secondarily related to macroeconomic factors. I also recognise that Petrofac is in a difficult debt situation, but I don't think these problems are so acute that this would explain the extreme drop as the debt doesn't have to be repaid until 4Q24 respectively the end of 2026.
I rather think that there might have been a coordinated short attack based on a false assumption that the German state would call off the purchase of the German part of the power grid from Tennet for an expected amount of €20-25bn at the last second due to a judgement of the German constitutional court.
Brief explanation:
The Federal Constitutional Court has ruled that the use of 60bn in corona loans for climate projects is unconstitutional, forcing the coalition to temporarily put planned projects on hold.
https://www.cleanenergywire.org/news/court-ruling-forces-german-government-reshuffle-climate-policy-funds-worth 60-billion-euros
This would have had far-reaching consequences for Tennet in terms of planning security and projects up to 2030 and beyond. They would also have had to pay higher interest on their bonds, etc.
However, a spokesperson for the Ministry of Economic Affairs has just confirmed that they are sticking to their plans to buy the German division of TenneT.
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/germany-still-plans-buy-local-unit-tennet-econ-ministry-2023-11-19/
I would like to point out that this prospective purchase is not yet a done deal.
It is a complex situation, but if I am right in my assumption and there are no skeletons in the closet in terms of old contracts, the bonds and hopefully also the shares should actually recover relatively quickly.
And who knows if we are awarded the contract for the ADNOC Upper Zakum project in the near future, we may soon be in for a nice short squeeze.
But who knows in these crazy times.
Adnoc receives prices for offshore oil project
https://www.meed.com/adnoc-receives-prices-for-major-offshore-oil-project
I have just placed a sell order at 80p for 50% of my holdings as a precautionary measure.
In any case, I am well positioned for the full-blown short-squeeze panic that is likely to set in soon.
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/OPEC-Said-To-Consider-Additional-1-Million-Bpd-Output-Cut.html "Two days ago, JPMorgan’s head of energy strategy Christyan Malek warned that amid the recent plunge in oil prices, driven as much by shorting CTAs (who today are in full-blown short squeeze panic mode) as the Biden admin, the oil market was underestimating the chances of deeper supply cuts during this month's Nov 26 OPEC+ meeting."
“The market’s probably assuming very little chance of that happening, I’d say it’s much higher than that – not as a base case but as a scenario” Malek told Bloomberg in an interview, adding that deeper curbs would be "in order to get ahead of potential weakness in the first half of next year."
“We may need to see” a cut “given where the balances are, particularly given the demand trending.” And while “there’s a view that Saudi is tapped out", Malek said that he doesn't believe that: "I think there’s more flex if they wish to cut. We could see them do sizable cuts from here; having said that, I think it’s more likely they’ll want to socialize them among their OPEC peers – a collective cut rather than one on their own.”
I wouldn't speak a single word to this guy he ruined the other forum with his three words he keeps repeating and he's doing the same here. The moderators do nothing and it makes no sense to ban him as he is logged in under several accounts. Like Hemorrhoids, this guy won't just disappear.
Https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Standard-Chartered-98-Oil-Is-Well-Supported-By-Fundamentals.html
- The oil price momentum has fizzled out with the risk premium that jumped in recent days following Israel’s ground incursion into Gaza.
- Standard Chartered has predicted a further 120 mb reduction in global inventories in Q4, on top of the 172 mb reduction in Q3.
- StanChart says its 2024 Brent forecast of $98/bbl is well supported by supply and demand fundamentals.
I'm pretty sure that the non-professional short seller and doommakers missed one publicly accessible thing, and maybe this even applies to the professionals too. Apparently they didn't do their homework properly. But we may soon see whether Petrofac takes advantage of this opportunity or not. The current environment would definitely play into Petrofac's hands. The announcement of a declaration of intent alone is likely to have a similar effect on the share price as the Tennet-Hitachi framework agreement and will make Petrofac's financial situation appear in a completely different light from one day to the next. probably not completely solved but largely defused.
If our doommakers are really as smart as they want us to believe, then it shouldn't be a problem for them to tell us what this might be?
I know I'm speaking in riddles, but this makes things a little more interesting.
If what he posted on avdvfn is true, he is just a small fish who is socially disturbed.
Probably unemployed or a welfare recipient who has too much time on his hands. Third alternative would be that he works as a trainee for one of the following: GLG, Astaris or Millennium for a tip, but obviously not getting a permanent job because even those require a certain niveau.
The job profile would definitely fit this social psychopath.
As I mentioned earlier, dogger69 is a toxic psychopath. Who will destroy the atmosphere and objectivity here on the Petrofac share discussion thread. As he has already done on advfn, if you don't ban him
See for yourself, if you don't believe me he really is a psychopath who doesn't care about money but only about annoying other people, really disgusting. On advfn he has posted "It's over" 5 times a day for the last 360 days without an exception under the name Lodgeview.
https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/petrofac-PFC/share-chat
Dogger69 aka lodgeview is a psychopath who has been tyrannising the ADVFN board for a year now. He writes there very persistently every day about 10 times it's over. You should therefore ignore him and certainly not talk to him. It is best to remove him from this board because he has nothing to say.
Criticism is welcome if you express it halfway intelligently and don't repeat it 1000 times. This is simply a disgusting, disrespectful manner that cannot be tolerated. Because investing in shares has not only to do with numbers but also a lot with psychology and this individual makes his fun out of the suffering of others - that is just disgusting.
Sorry for my bad English, it is not my mother tongue.