focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
I will also be happy if we reach over 200 - 300 pence sometime in 2024 (just my view).
Or already next week, months?
Can you also see the rainbow already on the horizon?
Petrofac is the hottest play when it comes to decarbonisation
and achieving the associated Net Zero targets across the UK.
It is unfortunate that the British investment funds, banks do not have the foresight to invest in renewable energy and contribute to the future of the UK.
Shouldn't the stock market be able to look at least a few months into the future?
A small list of possibilities and agreements already made:
Offshore wind
Europe's largest-ever contracting pack-age for security of supply, the energy transition and climate protection launched and at the same time the Largest framework agreement in Petrofacts an Hitachi Energy's history,
The first contract under the framework, for the Ijmuiden Ver Alpha project, was awarded with immediate effect. The second, Nederwiek 1, is expected to be awarded later in the year. The framework also includes projects Doordewind 1, Doordewind 2, Nederwiek 3 and LanWin5, expected to be awarded over a 2024-2026 timeframe.
Ijmuiden Ver Alpha (immediately awarded, value approx. 2.3 billion $ split 50/50 Petrofac / Hitachi)
Nederwiek 1 (expected to be awarded later this year. approx. 2.3 billion $ 50/50
Doordewind 1, Doordewind 2, Nederwiek 3 and LanWin5 (each also $2.3 billion 50/50 expected to be awarded over a 2024-2026 timeframe).
Total approx. 14 billion to be split 50/50 between Petrofac and Hitachi.
Offshore Decommissioning
Gulf of Mexico (Petrofac adds third Gulf of Mexico field to its decom scope)
Australia (Northern Endeavour's $325m decommissioning begins, Petrofac prepares oil well disconnectio)
Africa (Petrofac Nabs $60 Million Mauritanian Decommissioning Deal)
UK (More than 2,000 oil and gas wells are expected to be decommissioned in the North Sea over the next decade at a cost of about ÂŁ20bn.)
CO2 recovery
Adnoc greenlights one of the largest (>500 mio.$ CO2 recovery projects in Middle East
Green methanol and hydrogen
OCI Global and Petrofac announce exclusive partnership for gasification-based green methanol programme
And in all of this, not a single drop of oil has flowed, except perhaps a few drops of bio-oil.
As far as the connvenzinary oil business is concerned.
The problems with the UK Serious Fraud Office are history.
Petrofac is back in the ADNOC business and is already reaping the rewards.
Major increase in Group backlog to US$6.6 billion at 30 June 2023 (31 December 2022: US$3.4 billion) with strong order intake in both E&C and Asset Solutions.
A healthy pipeline scheduled for award in the next 16 months of US$60 billion.
They are desperate and trying to manipulate the price because they have been caught on the wrong foot.
They probably thought that China's disastrous economic data would cause the oil price to move into the $70 range.
But they didn't expect Saudi Arabia to pursue its cuts for so long and so consistently.
Now would be the right time to really fire up these cannalrates and drive them out of town, figuratively speaking, like in Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade.
Tullow we need good news.
Extended Saudi, Russian oil supply cuts pose bullish risks, says Goldman Sachs.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/extended-saudi-russian-oil-supply-cuts-pose-bullish-risks-says-goldman-sachs-2023-09-06/
Slower U.S. shale growth and persistent underproduction from several OPEC+ producers are set to tighten the oil market further in 2024, Barclays said on Wednesday, hiking its Brent price forecast for next year by $8 to $97 a barrel.
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Barclays-Sees-97-Brent-Oil-Price-In-2024-As-Market-Tightens.html
I don't have time for all this negative talk that is only meant to serve the own agenda. Not invested?
My focus at the moment is on:
- Front runner, groundbreaking ADNOC CO2 Capture Project > 500 Mio.
- Adnoc multibillion-dollar gas facilities expansion (50:50 chance) whereby I personally tend more towards Petrofac.
see also: https://www.oilandgasmiddleeast.com/news/uae-jobs-petrofac-is-hiring-for-over-200-vacancies-heres-why-you-should-apply
- Tennet award of the second Tennets 2GW project (Just a formality $2.3 billion split 50:50 between Hitachi and Perofac.
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The share price can literally double overnight, but luckily you won't know about it until it's too late.
Will we see the ÂŁ1 today or will we have to be patient?
Multibillion dollar! Let's rock, is all I can say.
https://www.upstreamonline.com/exclusive/adnoc-awards-prized-engineering-contract-for-multibillion-dollar-gas-facilities-expansion/2-1-1504387
Who is the No. 1 in renewable energies and CO2 recovery?
You heard right, it's petrofac!
Small excerpt with emphasis on groundbreaking for the over $500 million valued project!
The workscope for the groundbreaking project is likely to include a CO2 recovery unit, a primary compression facility, a triethylene glycol dehydration unit, enhancement of existing tail gas treatment units and other associated facilities, project watchers said.
https://www.oilandgasmiddleeast.com/news/adnoc-close-to-awarding-500-million-contract-for-major-carbon-capture-project
Oil prices to hit $91 by year-end, UBS says
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-prices-to-hit-91-by-year-end-ubs-says-175452984.html
Oil is poised to rally beyond $90 per barrel by the end of the year amid record demand and tightening supply, according to UBS strategists.
"We still see scope for global oil prices to rally,” said a recent UBS note to investors. “We now expect Brent to hit USD 95/bbl and the US WTI benchmark to rise to USD 91/bbl by end-December, up from the current USD 90/bbl and USD 85/bbl, respectively."
TenneT selected the Petrofac-Hitachi Energy partnership for a multi-year framework agreement covering six projects, worth approximately €13 ($14.33) billion, with the first contract already awarded and valued at over €2 ($2.2) billion, split between the partnership.
The first one has already been bagged and the second one is expected to follow soon.
Which means Petrofac's share is expected to be total $7.15 billion by around 2030.
The E&C and Asset Solutions pipeline for award is expected to reach $60 billion in the next 16 months.
Massive opportunity’: UK to spend $26.8 billion to decommission offshore oil and gas projects over the next decade.
https://oeuk.org.uk/offshore-energies-uk-oeuk-decommissioning-insight-2022/
A broadly neutral free cash flow for the full year is expected
We remain focused on closing out legacy contracts, with five of the remaining eight contracts expected to be completed(5) during the second half of the year or early in 2024. On the Thai Oil Clean Fuels contract, good progress is being made on the construction phases of the project. The execution plan remains in line with the update provided with the 2022 year-end results and operational and commercials discussions with the client are ongoing.
Current oil price 87$
And so on. I could list a dozen other things that make me optimistic for this year and especially next year.
E.g. OPEC’S Production Falls By Most In 3 Years: Survey and Russian Crude Oil Exports Plunge To January Lows
Goldman analysts estimate global oil demand climbed to an all-time high of 102.8 million barrels per day (bpd) in July and see solid demand driving a larger-than-expected 1.8 million bpd deficit in the second half this year
SPR releases coming to an end (resp. the room for manoeuvre of the us government is equal to 0)
USA Shale Oil Production Set to Fall Next Month
https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/usa_shale_oil_production_set_to_fall_next_month-18-jul-2023-173371-article/
and ...........................................................
Kuwait will invest more than $300 billion in the energy sector by 2040, said Kuwait’s oil minister Saad Al Barrak.
https://www.oilandgasmiddleeast.com/news/kuwait-to-invest-over-300-billion-in-the-energy-sector-oil-minister-says
The possibilities for Petrofac are almost endless, no matter if we are talking about traditional EPC or renewable energy contracts.
I have chilled a case of champagne just in case, so that I can toast with all of you who have been invested here for a long time when the time comes.