The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode with London Stock Exchange Group's Chris Mayo has just been released. Listen here.
Geostrategically, can India afford to allow China's influence to grow in its immediate neighbourhood and in East Africa in particular?
Reports that China's Sinopec may also be interested in the Kenya oil project could prove to be a stroke of luck and put additional pressure on Indian companies.
India would be well advised to take advantage of the opportunities offered to it.
Everybody is talking about this stupid tax dispute, which is just a smear campaign like every year.
But the important things seem to be ignored. The American shale oil industry seems to be collapsing.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Oil-Prices-Climb-As-US-Rig-Count-Sees-Another-Double-Digit-Decline.html
"The total rig count fell to 696 this week-31 rigs below this time last year. The current count is 379 fewer than the rig count at the beginning of 2019, prior to the pandemic."
Well, then at least I can understand your commitment.
Just let me know when you are back at the starting line with a 7-figure sum (Indian rupees?).
If you ramp as well as you are de-ramping now, nothing can really go wrong.
The reaction seems to me to be very much driven by fear
because you know I'm right about the >90%.
(that's simple statistics)
If you were intelligent you would close your short positions today.
But apparently you are not so intelligent and are running with open eyes into the falling knife.
I hope in your interest that your entry price is in a price range of approx. 40 - 55p because 25 - 40p is a death zone.
Strong reaction of the share price on a difficult day.
The atmosphere in this forum seems to be poisoned due to the two dumbasses: NSVPatel and coctordong (same person?)
They seem to be on glowing coals with the prospect that it could already be over tomorrow.
A little clarification >90% of the private short dumb talkers lose everything at the end. If not today then possibly tomorrow or another day. Their risk is many times greater than that of conventional investors.
And the funny thing is the more confident you feel today, the deeper your fall will be tomorrow and there will be no one to catch these dumbasses in the end.
Today was a hard day so I am a bit forgetful.
Here the question at the end again completely.
Here's a little question for our experts.
Isn't it true that the game works both ways?
Short positions can also be used to hedge long positions, can't they?
That could mean that a significant part of the declared or undeclared short positions (
Sorry i'm from switzerland and the title should correctly read as follows:
Destructive/constructive short position (checkmate on behalf of e.g. Azvalor, Schroders ....?)
Well, I'm not really an expert when it comes to short selling.
But it seems plausible to me that the big short sellers are
are both short and long at the same time.
Because they have more or less controlled the price in the past, they have been able to add shares at very good prices to hedge their positions. Or am I wrong about that?
When the recent history-making record deal with Tennet was made where price shot up by 80% in one day, it seems plausible to me that they had to use a significant part of their long position to prevent the price from consolidating at a higher level in the following days.
Now came the Lithuanian and Algeria deals in quick succession. If I am right, the question will be how many arrows they have left in their quiver and whether they are willing to shoot them.
I suspect that another billion-dollar deal in quick succession, perhaps in the 2-3 billion range, would probably lead them to tollapsing and having to withdraw completely in a panic-stricken, uncoordinated manner. ( respectively have to buy back in a panicky manner).
Here's a little question for our experts.
Isn't it true that the game works both ways?
Can't shorts also be used to hedge long positions?
That would mean that a considerable part of the declared or undeclared short positions (
Apropos false information:
NSVPatel "The most I have seen tlw's share valued at was $400m"
Was this simply a careless mistake, or are you just too stupid for the simplest calculations?
You must really be a very successful, experienced, very intelligent speculator who knows the subject like no other.
I would not worry too much, we are not talking about hundreds of millions of dollars here.
Maybe 20 - 100 million after X years in the worst case, if the lawsuit has a chance at all,
sounds much more realistic to my ears.
I would say this is a miscalculation on your part, petrofac has much better future prospects and has already converted a significant part of its business to renewable energies. (which other companies can only dream of, or have defined ominous timelines to 2030-2035) Petrofac can already do this today, with expected enormous growth potential. Note also the Tennet (Hitachi / Petrofac 50/50, 14 billion USD deal by the end of 2030.
The loss-making contracts: A Thai Oil Clean project which is now about 80% completed should also be largely completed by the end of 2023 and should not deliver any more surprises.
The directors are expecting the company to be cash neutral in 2023 debt will therefore only play a minor role.
Apollo can bid for all I care, but the truth is that their pockets are not deep enough to make a reasonable offer and I am sure the next big EPC contracts will come soon.
As soon as the revenues are back to a healthy level of 4 - 5 billion and the backlog is built up again (see bid pipline) Petrofac will no longer be available for 300p but then > 500p will be the order of the day or else they can just stay at home.
The window of opportunity is therefore likely to be quite narrow.
I could also imagine that Apollo and other player have already proactively (plan B or C) instructed the short-sellers to manipulate the price of Petrofac into the 40p range.
And who is the number 1 in oman and has the expertise to advance hydrogen production in all areas?
You guessed right, it's Petrofac
Here is a small excerpt from the article
https://www.oilandgasmiddleeast.com/energy-transition/oman-oq-projects
OQ’s strategic investments in green hydrogen projects – valued at around $40 billion – that continue to take centre-stage at the Alternative Energy Unit. Powered by around 30 GW of renewable capacity, these projects will account for a sizable proportion of Oman’s targeted annual production of 1 million – 1.25 million tonnes of green molecules by 2030, the Chief Executive noted.
JP Morgan stays 'overweight' on Petrofac, says bid pipeline 'growing and accelerating'
Https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.sharecast.com/amp/news/br oker-recommendations /jp - morgan-stays - ove rweight-on-petrofac- says-bid- Pipeline- Wachstum und -Beschleunigung – 10457904.html
All forecasts, estimates and calculations are outdated and not even good as toilet paper.
These 13 billion (6.5 + 6.5 billion) will only be the beginning.
Investment to get Europe where it wants to be is huge: The EU has calculated the cost of reaching 300 GW ( 85% from the nine north Sea countries alone) in offshore energy production by 2050 at $900 billion.
And Petrofac will be an indispensable Gear in the gearbox to achieve this goal.
Read the following excerpt from a recently published article and let it melt in your mouth:
https://www.hitachienergy.com/ch/de/news/press-releases/2023/03/hitachi-energy-and-petrofac-secure-landmark-offshore-wind-agreement-worth-approximately-13-billion-euros
“Today’s announcement represents an exciting next step in Petrofac and Hitachi Energy’s collaboration. We have already secured key resource and the yard capacity required to expedite the first two projects in TenneT’s ground-breaking program,” said Sami Iskander, Petrofac’s Group Chief Executive. “By combining Petrofac’s industry-leading EPCI expertise and Hitachi Energy’s well proven technology, we look forward to supporting TenneT to connect larger, more effective wind farms to deliver affordable clean energy for millions of European homes.”
“TenneT has the technical know-how, scale, and geographical position to connect wind energy from the North Sea. This is one of the most important infrastructure projects of the century; the green transformation of the energy system is key for the decarbonization of industry,” said Tim Meyerjürgens, COO of TenneT. “Together with our market partners, we are very proud to have achieved another important milestone. Together we secure decisive acceleration of the offshore grid development and set the course for the future European energy landscape.”
“The new long-term approach goes hand in hand with a fundamental change in values towards a strong partnership. This approach enables both sides with more flexibility, technological progress, and planning security,” said Marco Kuijpers, Director Large Projects Offshore of TenneT. This benefits all parties and secures employment, growth, and the strengthening of supply chains. We can already see that our partners invest in extra resources and facilities.”
So people are already being recruited and trained.
These experts trained in this new concept will be irreplaceable in order to advance the energy transition in time.
The future looks bright and also for hitachi.
Now another fat Adnoc contract and the short ones will be flushed down the toilet and crapped out again in the Thames incl. short squeeze.............
The original Front-End Engineering Design (FEED) (4 packages with a total value of approx. 15 billion) was apparently revised and optimised by Technip and consolidated into two integrated offshore and onshore packages (2 packages with a total value of approx. 10.5 billion).
I could well imagine that they will bid together with samsung again or, thanks to the connections of the new Ceo, with McDermott.
Adnoc begins fresh Hail and Ghasha tender process
Link: https://www.meed.com/adnoc-begins-fresh-tender-process-for-hail-and-ghasha
"Following the submission of commercial bids in early 2021, Adnoc made revisions to the feed as part of an optimisation process started by Technip Energies in November 2021. The revised feed aimed to reduce the scheme’s overall capital expenditure, which was previously estimated to be as high as $15bn.
The four original EPC packages were consolidated into two integrated offshore and onshore packages, thought to be worth as much as $5bn and $5.5bn, respectively, based on the previous version of the project.
Package 1 (offshore) – $3bn
Saipem (Italy) / National Petroleum Construction Company (NPCC, UAE)
McDermott (US) / Tecnicas Reunidas (Spain)
Archirodon (Greece) / Sinopec Engineering (China)
Petrofac (UK)
Package 2 (offshore) – $2bn
Petrofac (UK) / Samsung Engineering (South Korea)
Saipem (Italy) / China Petroleum Engineering & Construction Corporation (CPECC, China) / NPCC (UAE)
Hyundai Engineering & Construction (South Korea)
Archirodon (Greece) / Sinopec Engineering (China)
Package 3 (onshore) – $1bn and $2bn
Samsung Engineering (South Korea) / Petrofac (UK)
Archirodon (Greece) / Sinopec Engineering (China) / Consolidated Contractors Company (Greece/Lebanon)
Dodsal (India)
Tecnimont (Italy)
Package 4 (onshore) – $4bn and $6bn
Petrofac (UK) / Samsung Engineering (South Korea)
Tecnicas Reunidas (Spain) / McDermott (US)
Tecnimont/L****n & Toubro Hydrocarbon Engineering (India)
Saipem (Italy) / CPECC (China)
The reason for these PCSAs being annulled is unclear, but sources say the cost estimates submitted for the project were higher than the client’s overall budget."
The expression of interest (EoI) document was issued to contractors shortly after midnight on 29 April, according to sources. Firms have been asked to express interest in the new EPC tendering round by 14 May.
Patience is called for as soon as a solution regarding the taxes to be paid becomes apparent and it turns out that the matter is not as hot as it is cooked, the price will recover accordingly.
The market simply does not like uncertainty.
I am also in the red, but these are only book losses for me.
Already this autumn, the price may have moved into completely different spheres.
When the share price rises, these idiots will be gone as quickly as they came. It is normal that when things are going badly, the canal rats come out of hiding place.
The following reuters article talks about a meeting of the energy ministers from European countries next Monday and an accompanying commitment to push ahead with a gigantic expansion of offshore wind energy in the North Sea by 2030 and 2050 respectively in order to achieve the net zero targets by 2050.
The 9 countries have around 30GW of offshore wind currently installed
These countries intend to add another combined 120 gigawatts (GW) of North Sea offshore wind capacity by 2030, and 300GW by 2050.
That is gigantic and this is just the North Sea offshore wind capacity: (India, MENA, south / east europe have similar plans)
Only a few thoughts
120-30=90 GW (2023-2030, 11 GW/Year) possibly analogous to tennet about 1 Mrd. € per GW (about 90 Mrd €?)
300-120=180 GW (2031-2050, 9 GW/Year) possibly analogous to tennet about 1 Mrd. € per GW (about 180 Mrd €?)
A small extract from the article:
North Sea countries to pledge massive ramp up of wind energy (draft)
BRUSSELS, April 21 (Reuters)
"Seven European Union countries, including Germany, France and the Netherlands, alongside non-EU countries the United Kingdom and Norway, will commit at a summit on Monday to rapidly build wind farms, develop energy "islands" - connected offshore green power generation sites - and launch their first projects to produce renewable hydrogen at sea.
A draft of the ministers' summit declaration, seen by Reuters, pitched the plans as a way to end Europe's reliance on Russian fossil fuels, after Moscow slashed gas supplies last year following its invasion of Ukraine.
The nine countries are aiming for a combined 120 gigawatts (GW) of North Sea offshore wind capacity by 2030, and to more than double that to 300GW by 2050.
The same countries have around 30GW of offshore wind currently installed, according to industry group WindEurope."
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/north-sea-countries-pledge-massive-ramp-up-wind-energy-draft-2023-04-21/