RE: Coetzer interview26 Aug 2025 13:44
SeisNav, I respect your input but done bit of homework as part of due diligence.
There was indeed a downturn, and Jubilee is recovering from it. The impact on Roan was not incidental—it was materially shaped by the broader effects of El Niño, which brought one of the most severe droughts Zambia has faced since 1981. This is not a once-off anomaly but part of a recurring climatic pattern with structural implications for energy, agriculture, and water security.
The drought led to extensive crop failures, strained hydroelectric capacity, and disrupted water supplies across 84 districts, affecting an estimated 9 million people. Roan, situated within this footprint, was inevitably exposed to these pressures—both operationally and socially. The Zambian Government declared a national disaster in February 2024 and has since mobilised a multi-sectoral response, including maize relief distribution, borehole drilling, and export restrictions to stabilise domestic food supply.
Importantly, Jubilee’s operational model—extracting value from low-grade tailings and dumps—remains resilient. Their technical agility and historical performance suggest they are well-positioned to rebound, particularly as Zambia clears regulatory hurdles and recommits to mining sector revitalisation. Yes, corporate tax and electricity tariffs are elevated, mirroring South African levels, but the strategic upside may outweigh these costs if Jubilee can leverage its proven efficiencies.
This is a cyclical downturn, not a structural failure. The fundamentals remain intact, and the broader macro signals—governmental responsiveness, community resilience, and asset-specific recovery—suggest that the tide may be turning