RE: Updates4 Sep 2025 08:18
Estimation of profit for Jubilee Q1 2026 ( July, August & September 2025)
1. Zambia Copper
- Sable Refinery: 264 tonnes (≈88 t/month)
- Roan Concentrator: 1,140 tonnes (≈380 t/month)
- Total Copper: 1,404 tonnes for the quarter.
- At a 30% margin, Jubilee guided around US$4.1m.
2. South Africa – PGMs
Basket Prices (my estimates for Jubilee):
- July = US$1,632/oz
- Aug/Sep = US$1,927/oz
- Cost assumption: US$1,000/oz.
- JV split: 72% Jubilee, 28% JV partners.
Scenario A – 9,000 oz in Q1
- Gross profit ≈ US$7.46m
- Jubilee share (72%) ≈ US$5.37m
Scenario B – 10,400 oz in Q1
- Gross profit ≈ US$8.44m
- Jubilee share (72%) ≈ US$6.08m
3. South Africa – Chrome
- With Thutse feed and new contract terms, chrome margins are significantly higher (4–5× previous levels).
- Base case: at least US$5m profit in the quarter.
- Upside case: much higher if volumes/prices hold
Base case:
- Copper: US$4.1m
- PGMs: US$5.4–6.1m
- Chrome: ≥US$5m
Total ≈ US$14–15m
Range:
- US$12m (conservative) → weaker chrome / lower PGM throughput / Copper margin less.
- US$15m+ (optimistic) → strong chrome contract uplift + higher PGM production
A feedback is more than welcome. I am looking forward to receive the actuals after Quarter 1 (verify assumptions, update estimates, etc.)