Member Info for Harmonica

Fleecy,

Nice gain!

I am sown to mh last 5,000, but shall hold on for now as I see the BP price going up from here as I am not optimistic for a serious peace deal.

Are you reinvesting your gain or keeping a watching brief?

Meoryou,

Six months?!

Wow!

I can not even begin to guess where the price of crude or the BP share proce would be with anothe six months of closure of the Strait of Hormuz!

CM370,

As Foghorn Leghorn once said, "You can argue with me, but you can't argue with mathematics!"

In other words, there is a day of reckoning when arguing does no good.

The futures price is over $99 per barrel!

Does this mean that the market is realising that peace is not as near as it thought, or isnit a technical issue with short sellers forced to buy back contracts as they have no physical crude to deliver, or both?

The gap between the physical spot market and the futures price must narrow.

Cm370,

"all that to say, leaves me both perplexed that the futures market hasn’t woken up yet but also extremely confident that oil majors share prices are not going to go one way."

Which way are they not going? Up? Down? Put another way, which way are you predicting that they will go?

Jakers,

"As much as I may wish it, I can see 650 anytime soon."

Did you mean to type 'can not'?

Spights,

Fortunately, I do not have to!

If I do not like what he says today, in a day or to, he will say the opposite!

Spights,

This does not look over to me by a long chalk.

They are the result of supply and demand for futures options! Simple economics.

However,m it looks clear to me that either the buyers ornthe sellers are extremely wrong in their bets. One lot or the other is going to take a caning...

It is importsmt to remember that BP plc makes most of its money on the spot or price of physical oil. As that is way, way, way higher than the futures price presently, BP will be rolling in profits in Q1. 8-))

Ifnthis bacwardatiin continues, i.e., spot price greater than the futures price, some sellers of futures are going to have to buy back their options and lose money.

In a bachwardation situation, there is no incentive to store oil, as it can sold now at a price higher than the future. Mind you, with the current shortsge, not that increasing storage is an option!

Giantsquid,

I should not be so sure.

Just heard this on Sky News...

US Energy Secretary, Chris White, has stated that oil prices wll continue to rise until meaningful shipments resume out of the Gulf of Persia.

Pretty much a statement of the very obvious, but no harm in waking people up from overly-optimistic wishes.

Fleccy,

Futures leave room for the optimistic to believe that things will get better and so this is reflected in the prices. The spot or cash market reflects the present day realities! Either things will bet better eventually and the spot price will fall, or things will get worse, or be perceived to be betting worse, and so the futures price go higher. My bet is that it will get worse before there is any final resolution.

As for the Vatican and Jews in the Second World War, you will find that behind the silence, the practical reality was that The Roman Catholic Church helped Jews in various ways to escape persecution. For instance, Baptismal papers were signed, so that Jews could pretend to be Roman Catholics and avoid suspicion and dectection. As a nation in its own right, the Vatican authorities signed transit visas and immigration papers to assist Jews. Pope Pius XII was no fool. He knew that if he took a more public condemnation of Nazism, it would not change Nazi behvaciour, but it woukd make helping Jews muchnmore difficult, given that the Vayican was surrounded by the Fascist Italian state, which came under the jackboot of Germany after Mussokini's fall and the creation of the Salò republic.

Jamtart1,

Yes, really.

I never wrote that the Pope has to be impartial amd neutral...far frommit, at times!

I wrote that the Pope is expected to commemt on matters of peace and war!

So, please do not put words into my mouth.

If you want to try to set up straw man arguments, go ahead.

Jamtzat1,

It is the Pope's job to comment on matters that involve the cessation of peace and death.

Clued,

I was expecting the share price to reach 600p on Monday. Perhaps we have to see zero traffic in the Strait of Hormuz for a day or two for people to realise that things are getting worse, not better.

EmeraldCarrots,

Not quite that simple, I fear.

Firstly is the cost and time needed uo build such infrastructure.

Secondly, it could be easily attacked.

Thirdly, 80% of the crude leaving the Persian Gulf is for Asia, not Europe, so the infrastructure that you suggest, would be heading in the wrong direction, no?

At the opening, I see Brent Crude futures trading around $104 per barrel, which is $8 up on the close on Friday. That is an 8% rise!

Onsolidgroumd,

I have found the story reported on the Telegraph website now.

Seems like mere braggadocxio. Erdogan is saying it because he is not serious in implementing it.