Member Info for HarChris

I said before, the news the other day was a shock to the market, it was highly unexpected. Having had that news, this wasn't in anyway a shock. Good for the broader market, but not a shock.

Now that's out the way we can start moving towards the broker target.

There has been a significant shift towards gold standard PCR testing in the past week which we hold the largest market share in. This plus the two mega labs makes the business case here extremely attractive.

I do find some of this vaccine agenda talk a bit frustrating. SNG001 has no chance of ever bringing the pandemic under control, a vaccine is the only way of ever doing that. It's no surprise that vaccines are top priority and so they should be.

Alongside this, SNG001 has the potential to save many lives and improve the long term health prospects of tens of millions of others.

Have you noticed how some on here get panicked when we're in the red for two hours of trading?
Patience... you can't always expect instant gratification with stocks - this is a solid short, medium and long term investment!

Well Amers if you really believe that then you might as well sell out short term as we aren't getting numbers just yet. We know there's so much going on + the director buys is more than enough to see a 20-30% rise from here. Just because it hasn't happened this morning doesn't mean it won't in due course, we've seen how quick this moves...

It took a good six months for the market to accept that this company was worth anything close to half a billion. It will take a bit more time for it to accept that this company is worth over a billion... but it will in due course.

With the enormous cash pile building up it doesn't feel that mad to move almost the entire portfolio into novacyt. I won't, but it really must be odds on to become a midcap company in the near future now...

And just like that France leaps into action!

But, but, they can't release an RNS straight after director buys?

Topping up!

Great tweet to see before the market opens tomorrow: https://twitter.com/AndreasIsLong/status/1328115697722023936

Can you drop this Bablake please? My opinion is that auditor news this week after the relative calm and lack of bad press over the past three or four weeks would lead to a sharp rise in the share price. Yours is the opposite. Stop acting like you know for a fact the auditor news won't make a difference - it's arrogant and annoying.

I know there was a disappointing amount of press this weekend but I'd be surprised if we don't open up tomorrow.

I've been convinced that there's a whole lot more going on behind the scenes than we could ever imagine but that it's in their best interest to keep the figures under wraps right now whilst they embed themselves within the UK infrastructure and try to negotiate new deals. The director nods therefore to me a sly wink to shareholders to say hold tight and you'll be rewarded.

It's certainly enough of a sign to me to hold on to all my shares whatever happens over the next weeks/months.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/nov/15/call-for-three-year-ban-on-ey-bidding-on-public-contracts

... got me thinking. No AIM investment is a surefire route to riches but with novacyt we have numerous ways this can play out and still make good returns from here.

(i) Worst case scenario for ncyt - an effective vaccine is rolled out quickly and efficiently enough by the summer to no longer need testing anywhere near the current level. We continue to sell tests around the world but the company's focus turns to the post covid world with £250m-£500m cash in the bank to reinvest. In this scenario we rely very much on Graham and the team using the funds wisely and so the business case revolves around the team continuing to demonstrate breathtaking business savvy.

(ii) Mid case for ncyt - vaccines turn out to be a little less effective than the headline grabbing 90% we saw last week. They begin to be rolled out in 2021 and are an effective tool to control the virus but are not successful enough by themselves to bring the pandemic to an end. Demand for testing declines from the current level but is still significant to generate hundreds of millions for ncyt. In this scenario I think the p/e ratio would soar up as we continue to make large profits well into 2021/2022 and therefore reach £2b mcap even without diversification.

(iii) Best case for ncyt -We become completely embedded in the NHS and other key settings such as care homes with rolling contracts in the hundreds of millions. No effective vaccine is found and testing remains the key tool alongside treatments for managing the virus. In this scenario we would become a midcap by default and potentially even bigger than that...

At £630m mcap the risk/reward here is really quite amazing...

Really sorry, wrong board *holds head in shame

... got me thinking. No AIM investment is a surefire route to riches but with novacyt we have numerous ways this can play out and still make good returns from here.

(i) Worst case scenario for ncyt - an effective vaccine is rolled out quickly and efficiently enough by the summer to no longer need testing anywhere near the current level. We continue to sell tests around the world but the company's focus turns to the post covid world with £250m-£500m cash in the bank to reinvest. In this scenario we rely very much on Graham and the team using the funds wisely and so the business case revolves around the team continuing to demonstrate breathtaking business savvy.

(ii) Mid case for ncyt - vaccines turn out to be a little less effective than the headline grabbing 90% we saw last week. They begin to be rolled out in 2021 and are an effective tool to control the virus but are not successful enough by themselves to bring the pandemic to an end. Demand for testing declines from the current level but is still significant to generate hundreds of millions for ncyt. In this scenario I think the p/e ratio would soar up as we continue to make large profits well into 2021/2022 and therefore reach £2b mcap even without diversification.

(iii) Best case for ncyt -We become completely embedded in the NHS and other key settings such as care homes with rolling contracts in the hundreds of millions. No effective vaccine is found and testing remains the key tool alongside treatments for managing the virus. In this scenario we would become a midcap by default and potentially even bigger than that...

In regards to testing I think the only thing that's certain is that demand for PCR testing will continue at a high rate for years to come in clinical settings. Rapid testing for entry into football stadiums, gigs, theatre etc might become the norm but that's not something we can say with any certainty right now...

It does appear that we're going to have to wait for concrete news now as there are no attempts to coax this share price back up to where it was earlier in the year. It would be comforting to see the sp move back towards the 140p mark tomorrow but on the whole it doesn't really matter. How's everyone expecting tomorrow to go?

Director dealings are a faff, no director buys £500ks worth unless they are expecting big returns over the next few years.

Graham clearly believes this company will grow into a midcap over the next 2-3 years and seeing as we aren't too far from full year results, this is probably his last chance to make some serious dough...