Member Info for HarChris

Bit of a deflating day here, I thought today might be the day we start going forward.

Personally I hate all the anti vaxx chat and I find those who are asking questions about how a rushed vaccine can be safe are sticking their fingers in their ears when given the answers.
BUT more importantly for this investment, hesitancy around a vaccine to be taken in 2021 is both real and significant. In this country there will almost certainly be at least 25% of people refusing it to begin with so unless the effectiveness really is right up there at 95%+ the virus will still be circulating at a high rate this time next year...

I think it's safe to say all these contracts we have with DHSC will be extended and extended again.

It feels to me like the pending AZN/Oxford news is holding this back. Once that's out the way hopefully we'll have a run again and form a new base a good 20% higher than what we're currently at...

A proper functioning test and trace simply isn't going to happen in this country and with this government. I think it would be seriously wrong to make a vaccine mandatory but for the most at risk groups rushing through this vaccine is almost certainly going to be beneficial and would be enough to get the world ticking along closer to normal again.

It won't bring down transmission to a negligible level and so testing will be needed imo well into the future, possible forever.

For those arguing that we should wait a few years to see the long term effects of a vaccine, are you really suggesting we should go on like we have for the past 9 months for the next two years? This country will be decimated.

Pretty sure Crabtree has a history of unsubstantiated ramping. I've definitely got my hopes up after a few of their posts in the past only to realise that it was a stab in the dark.

I'm still a little confused by the care home trial we are involved in. The interim data was supposedly encouraging but it took many months to get to that stage and now all the talk is about having a proper testing system in place across the country by Christmas. We'd have to be stopping the trial rather soon wouldn't you think for it to be us?

SH3 that's three posts in a row about mouthwash now. Are you working for Colgate or Listerine?

It is starting to feel that way though Woodstock. I'm pretty sure if we were all heavily invested in pfizer we'd be explaining how they were able to rush through this vaccine in breakneck speed without compromising safety (as explained by Van Tam last week).

Absolutely but as time goes on (so far 9 months) you've got to think the market will start to accept that it isn't going away. With the projections of demand for testing rising in 2021 and still high from 2022 onwards I'm just a bit surprised that this isn't reflected in the share price a little more by now...

Come on is there any need to be so negative about this, we were all very happy to trumpet our own phase 2 results without a peer review.

It's good news for society if the people that most need it can be protected by the vaccine.

So in March we were told testing would be needed for at least a few months, in August we were told testing is likely to be needed well into 2021, and now there are signs that testing will be needed well in 2022 and beyond. At each of these points we reasoned that the forecasted p/e ratio of ~1.5 was because this was a short window in which to make hay whilst the sun shone.

Is it not obvious that as we hit 2021 and the revenues are still flooding in on top of acquisitions and then hit 2022, that the p/e ratio will jump to something more inline with the pharma sector - say 15-30. Simply maintaining current revenues not withstanding acquisitions and possible larger deals to come, we'd be looking at ten times this share price.

Debt free, low cost, high margin business raking in tens of millions every single week and yet investors on the whole are reticent. Makes no sense to me!

There's been little evidence yet that the first two weeks of lockdown is dramatically slowing infection rate and lots of evidence that people are not following the restrictions like they were in the first lockdown. I don't think we'll miss the boat in regards to the second wave...

The past has no relevance on the future - diagnostics is THE sector to be in now...

Could someone send me the link for the webinar, pretty please? :)

Whether it's schools, hospitals, care homes, or international markets, if we've ramped production of Q16s and Q32s to 1500 a month because the demand is there - well say goodbye to the single figure share price for good.

I know novacyt and its subsidaries are playing a big role in tackling the pandemic but if their revolutionary tests bring a sense of normality back to the elderly/sick this winter then that would be to me be their most significant and meaningful contribution.

Maybe it's just me but it feels like the penny is starting to drop that this is not a business enjoying their day in the sun but the start of a journey to a mid/large cap international diagnostics company. It takes time to shake off the fact that this was 10p a share at the start of the year but I think that's just starting to happen now...

Expect sentiment to shift pretty quickly back in our favour and lockdown to be extended on the 2nd...

It seems the broker forecasts of £13.65 and £14.65 are based on things tootling along as they are currently. They don't take into account Phase 2 of the DHSC contract, they don't take into account a potential blockbuster care home contract, they don't take into account a mega French contract, they don't take into account potential deep inroads into the US.

So at £8 a share it's hard not to be relaxed about this investment.