Member Info for HarChris

Let's be honest most of us on here expected things to move quicker after the results on 20th July. We thought they might get emergency approval straight off the bat, we thought having started the home trial on the 28th May that we'd have certainly recruited all the patients by now, we thought there would be some share price momentum following the positive COPD results, we thought there might be some positive news following the MAP agreement.

It's therefore understandable that the share price is down here as things have moved much slower than many of us hoped for. Following all of this you've got to assume the timelines will be slightly behind what we're once again hoping for but who knows, maybe we'll enter a news rich period and be pleasantly surprised this time.

In order to prevent accusations of ramping can we be careful not to exaggerate the yearly revenue from 100k treatments a month? It's not £3.6m a year, it will be around $3.6m according to RM so £2.7m.

Do you have a link for that updated broker target?

Walshberg, I do think your strategy can work as long as you don't then go and reinvest all your money into something else after. Eventually odds are something'll go wrong and you'll be left with nothing!

I've noticed that when things are going well Primer Design get a lot of praise on twitter for doing their bit in saving lives, but when the share price is falling instead they get a load of desperate messages begging for news and an rns. Obviously we're all here primarily to make money but it does feel a bit ugly to flip flop so readily...

I agree Blessed but we are absolutely due a whole string of announcements. Maybe I'll live to regret this but I've just doubled down at 91.5p. ATB guys!

I agree that there are now clear signs that testing is here to stay. But in reality, we've got to remember that it's only been 9 months from the start of the pandemic, it is not long enough to command a p/e ratio anywhere near what other established pharmas command. We will clear be making money from selling covid tests for some time to come but exactly how much is still an unknown.

I think we'll still comfortably rise from here with new contracts but nothing like the blue sky thinking target from numis. I'm in this for the long term and am heavily invested in the novacyt project, not the here and now.

There is no evidence as of yet that testing will be in high demand come H2 2021. I think it will be, others on here obviously do, but until that becomes clear we can't really expect novacyt to be valued in the billions.

The upside here is enormous whilst the downside is very small for the time being. Whatever occurs over the next six months there will be enough money in the bank for the sp to hold relatively firm. If in six months testing is just as important as it is now and we have all the money in the bank then the potential is off the charts.

Min price £5, max price ???

Good to hear from you again SS and that you're still long and strong. Think about this, exactly three months ago investors were paying £2.40 for one of these shares. What has really changed? It was obvious that a vaccine would be here in 2021 with the billions and billions pumped into achieving that. The early efficacy claims are quite unexpected but besides that we are where we were three months ago with a fully funded phase 3 trial across 20 nations.

This 60% discount is going to look like a steal if P3 results are positive in late Feb/March.

I think it would take an enormous new contract to really shift the share price pre x-mas but once there is a clear path to revenue post vaccine this will rerate imo. Will take some time yet but the fundamentals are going ever stronger...

Whichever way you swing it there is enormous value at £190m mcap with £87m finding secured for the phase 3 trial with the home trial close to completion. Yes it's still somewhat risky but with a long term outlook the risk/reward is fantastic right now...

My opinion is that the mcap will remain roughly equivalent to 2 x cash in the bank this side of christmas. As we go into 2021 factors such as how smoothly the vaccine rollout goes, evidence of high demand for testing even in a post vaccine world etc could see the share price really move north.

Therefore it's hard to predict a share price without knowing whether or not phase 2 is triggered, whether there's an extension to the deal, and what other deals are in the pipeline (some sort of care home contract).

What does the commercialisation away from the nhs to private clinics mean for the bottom line? At £145 and £170 respectively for the fit to fly PCR test do we assume that ncyt is seeing much much more than the say £6 for just providing a test en masse?

The blue sky thinking is more than possible as long as production is at at least 20m a month with the aim to scale that up more. On this front we are left in the dark...

I'm with you Oil. It's one thing being possible, it's another executing it. It's really, really hard to imagine a smooth system being put in place that results in the majority of the nation being vaccinated by the end of the summer.

What exactly does the market for coronavirus tests look like for you?

Demand is by far outstripping supply, and that’s true both for PCR and for antigen tests. I expect this to continue for quite some time into 2021, and it’s simply because we have huge back orders, which give you enough line of sight. You have long, complicated supply chains, so you have to work on the bottlenecks simultaneously with all your suppliers, and with your internal setup, and this changes over time.

Obviously we don't have the reach of Roche (mcap €263b!) but it does suggest that we are likely selling what we are producing - which is between 10m and 20m tests a month??? Was there confirmation of scaling up to 20m a month, I can't quite remember...

The government's number one priority from the start has been to ensure hospitals are not overrun. That will almost certainly be achieved with an effective vaccine that 70% of the most vulnerable take, especially if 50% of the general population are jabbed also.

That doesn't mean there won't be a need for prophylactics and treatments though, it just means we won't be locking down or having the same restrictions in place as we've seen this year.

Apologies if you thought that insult was aimed at you, it was aimed in general at posters on here who seem to have no interest in anything other than mischief and 'gotcha' moments. If you fall into that category then you'll understand the sentiment.

You look at so many industries, particularly travel related, and it's obvious testing is needed over the next 6 months or so. Not only that, but for cruises, flying, schools etc it's possible that our Q machines become the go-to option. This is an example: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55022158

Let's assume the vaccine is rolled out by winter 2021 - I am convinced that testing in clinical settings will continue to be needed, maybe for years and years to come. But what do we think about other leisure settings? Does anyone envisage testing before and after say going on a cruise, a flight, even if the general public have been vaccinated?