Member Info for HarChris

Would he like to refer to this little nugget:

Clinical trial update using Novacyt's NPT system in care homes

Further to the announcement on 22 July 2020, Queen Mary University of London (QMUL) has completed an interim review of the performance of the Company's innovative near-patient testing (NPT) system in an ongoing study testing for COVID-19 in care homes.



The interim review analysed over 4,000 samples from care home residents and staff, with 98% of the samples using Novacyt's NPT system processed and reported in the same day. The clinical accuracy of Novacyt's NPT system was found to have >99% clinical sensitivity and specificity when compared to a standard central laboratory system. These data demonstrate the reliability and accuracy of Novacyt's NPT system. In addition, mid-nose nasal swabs were found to be effective and well tolerated compared to the more invasive nasopharyngeal swabs.



Further to the announcement of Novacyt's second contract with the UK DHSC on 29 September 2020 for the supply of q16 and q32 instruments and test kits to NHS hospitals, the clinical trial is being expanded into additional settings across the UK where the Company's NPT systems are being deployed.

That edit is very comforting and contradicts the entire article...

Apologies for my panicked responses, I am heavily invested here and it did feel like an almighty slap in the face having been looking forward to tomorrow and the rest of the week. Fingers crossed this is a poorly researched piece and the claims made will be rowed back at a later date...

Similar but with some worrying updates, such as claiming the government is now being forced to consider its contract with Primer Design. I really hope I'm panicking for nothing and this is all cleared up but also don't like that 'Primer Design declined to comment'.

Does anyone understand Promate well enough to know if perhaps Graham was aware of the problems and has the solution - with the Independent going ahead with the story none-the-less???

Let's not play this down, the sp was about £4 prior to this contract and the article claims the rollout of the machines has been halted after just 160 being delivered to hospitals. I'm worried, I hope we get some clarity soon...

330 is 10% not 30%...

For what period? Maybe they sold ten million of their 8p black dresses? He shouldn't be tweeting that sort of thing but it's not evidence of increased profits come January...

For the record, I was not in anyway defending Boris and his government. I said I am at least relieved to see that they are nothing like the authoritarian regimes that are gathering ground in many nations. I would argue that they've tried to do good in what is a very challenging situation but have made too many mistakes and been too stubborn and proud to admit to those mistakes (eg persisting with calling the test and trace app world beating) to give them a pass.

Now let's get back to novacyt!

Intrepid, what you don't understand is that your relatives that are over 75 may be talking selflessly but they WILL expect to get hospital treatment if they catch the virus and fall ill, or even if they fall ill for some other reason.

None of us have lived through a time where we were unable to get emergency medical treatment when we needed it because there simply wasn't the resources - that is what we potentially could have been faced with if we had completely turned a blind eye to the pandemic (the US is close to this point now: https://www.covidexitstrategy.org/ )

I side with all those on here that condemned Earth's comments but I do think it's easy to see why so many of us have a different perspective. People's take on the pandemic varies wildly because it affects people in vastly different ways. The truth is most human beings are selfish, we put ourselves and our families firsts, then our friends and then if we are compassionate we extend some time and care for others beyond that.

If you are someone who's life's been materially affected because of the pandemic it's understandable that you're frustrated - be it the loss of your business, or perhaps all your savings that you put away for that first home have been eroded.(If it's just because your sick of not being able to go to the pub, well frankly you need to have a good long look at yourself... ) If on top of that you and everyone you know were asymptomatic or had mild symptoms you might start to question whether the whole thing's been blown out of proportion and start looking at it through a different lens. It's possible that you start to take the view that people die everyday, 2000 on average in this country I believe, and that we have failed to find the right balance in regards to the pandemic. After all, everyday people die because of governmental decisions, whether that be relating to homelessness, welfare benefits, spending on mental health services etc etc

Personally, I'm very relieved with the way this government has on the whole attempted to put lives before the economy. I am not a conservative voter and I'm sure many members of the cabinet feel the measures are too draconian but on the whole the scientists haven't been sidelined like they have under Trump and other more authoritarian regimes. It's a horrible situation we find ourselves in and just like with other polarising events like the referendum I prefer to try to empathise with those who have different views to me rather than attack and abuse them.

WishIKnew2020
Your post "Dr Roger Hodkinson
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9LbD1rWkF-Q
Should we be worried when such an eminent authority in medicine proclaims that Testing is unnecessary?
It is dated 13th November 2020 so apologies if already posted.

I think the general consensus within the medical community is that covid most likely won't be eradicated and nor is it too important that it is. Being so infectious whilst relatively undeadly (in comparison to diseases we've eliminated in the past) makes chasing total eradication futile.

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What matters to a novacyt investor is the type of testing that will remain in perpetuity. Mass testing of entire populations certainly won't be needed once a working vaccine has been rolled out around the world, nor will testing to enter stadiums and other similar areas. What will most likely remain is highly accurate testing in clinical settings such as hospitals (pre surgery for example) and crossing international borders (there will likely be some nationalistic element to this).

So as a LTH I'm not expecting revenue from testing like we're seeing now into the future, but I am looking at whether or not this virus will provide a revenue stream long into the future, which I think it will...

I know there's a few on here that have messaged Graham previously, anyone able to find out what the current manufacturing capacity is at the moment? It seems strange that we don't know this when it shouldn't exactly be a secret???

If drug testing is added to the mobile labs it really will be the death of the workplace as we know it!

First time in a while we've not been dragged down early - here's to a nice rise into the weekend. GLA!

I think that's true and I think that's fair enough. The advantage we as early shareholders have is we can research and keep tabs on how much money the company is generating - with the more it generates the greater the chance it evolves into a midcap company many multiples of what it is now...

Ghia, don't get me wrong, I'm not invested in them and don't see big gains from here. I'm just explaining why those travel stocks rose so much off the vaccine news - if the share price is 90% down it means it has 1000% to climb to get back to where it was. In those cases you can see how some shares rallied as much as 200%...

If we were smart we'd have recognised this and jumped off this investment for a couple of weeks, taken advantage of the opening up of the market, before feasting here below £1!

CR it's quite simple to understand. Take any of those companies. Easyjet then...

Before the pandemic sp was £15, pre vaccine news it was sitting at around £5 - 66% lower. The vaccine news was the light at the end of the tunnel that these companies were needing. They were priced to potentially go bankrupt whereas the vaccine news gave them something to claw onto, reason to be optimistic that they might survive after all...

Easyjet is now at £8.50 a share, so in other words the vaccines news led to ~ 70% rise but it's still sitting more than 40% lower than pre pandemic levels...

As far as I'm aware what we describe as a rerate can occur in different ways. Numis has us at about £330m revenue for 2020 and at that they give us a target of £13.65 so I think the market expects lower than that still.

I'll give you an example of what happened at synairgen when they released stellar P2 results back in June if that helps? The sp closed on the Friday before at about 39p. Rns at 7am Monday and then the market opened at 90p before rallying all the way up to about 190p by close if i remember correctly.

We don't know what the sp will be prior to H2 results but if what you describe occurs (£750m revenue figure) and we're around this level, I imagine we'd see a significant jump on open before continuing the rise throughout the day.