Member Info for HarChris

As far as I'm aware what we describe as a rerate can occur in different ways. Numis has us at about £330m revenue for 2020 and at that they give us a target of £13.65 so I think the market expects lower than that still.

I'll give you an example of what happened at synairgen when they released stellar P2 results back in June if that helps? The sp closed on the Friday before at about 39p. Rns at 7am Monday and then the market opened at 90p before rallying all the way up to about 190p by close if i remember correctly.

We don't know what the sp will be prior to H2 results but if what you describe occurs (£750m revenue figure) and we're around this level, I imagine we'd see a significant jump on open before continuing the rise throughout the day.

MisterEtrayda, you don't happen to have a transcript of that webinar chat do you? Either way that sounds promising.

As for all these companies using our tests, it takes me back to something Vadim Alexandre said a couple of months ago - being the main supplier to the UK government will give it a cachet that will lead to many more deals further down the road - especially in the states.

Out of the question*** (bloody predicted text!)

A quick search shows that testing is continuing to increase and in particular, lab based PCR testing: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/nhs-test-and-trace-england-and-coronavirus-testing-uk-statistics-5-november-to-11-november/weekly-statistics-for-nhs-test-and-trace-england-and-coronavirus-testing-uk-5-november-to-11-november

Shaun, these new jobs do suggest rapid expansion. The revenues we could well be seeing on top of being debt free and with virtually none of the costs that all companies making this sort of money will have is quite extraordinary. I mean figures nearing a billion are being banded around for 2021 and it isn't out of the equation. Now look at astra zeneca for example:

Revenue $24b... but profit before tax is just $1.5b. Mcap? Wait for it... £102b!!!

No debt, minimal costs besides the expanding workforce and extremely high margins is a killer ****tail.

What we can say is that it's not the official triggering of phase 2 but it does suggest that the full contract could end up being a much bigger figure than the £406m! By some margin...

macartney, I'm sorry my comment offended you so. The reason I saw it as a silly suggestion is a) AIM doesn't work like the FTSE100/FTSE250 and b) even if it did, there are numerous companies in the AIM index that are valued in the billions, some as high as five billion.

We won't be leaving the AIM index in a hurry.

There isn't a general consensus on that figure but my take following conversations on here is that it's the likely cost of the contract between the months given (give or take £100m) with a possible extension to the end of Q1 2021...

But the truth is we simply don't know and will only find out in the full year results or with clarification in a future rns.

There's seems to be so much going on now that even with Shaun's wonderful analysis it's becoming impossible to realistically predict future sales figures. Besides the obvious one sometime in January, what other news is everyone here hoping for over the next few weeks/month? A further announcement regarding the DHSC contract (Phase 2), possibly news about the care home trial and a possible contract there? US related news? Perhaps more on versalab???

No offence but that's a ridiculous suggestion. I'm pretty sure the last thing the company is currently worried about is what exchange they are listed on - bigger fish to fry!

How terribly sad.

What a negative nelly you are. Unless there is a problem behind the scenes there is no way there's much further to fall - not that that brings much comfort at 83p! Pretty confident we'll at least finish the week at 90p...

Seen a lot of talk today around encouraging anyone visiting vulnerable people over the five day christmas period to get tested beforehand - we're talking tens of millions of tests in the run up to christmas...

But I'm with you in general Doc and have found it frustrating how people on here seem annoyed that vaccines are top of the agenda. I mean come on, vaccines are the only route out of this pandemic - sng001 is not!!!

Doc, if I can add my two cents. I've seen some obvious anti vax **** on this board but in general this bb is relatively free of it. I think it's you that's a little too optimistic about how smoothly it's going to go and also are a bit disbelieving of the amount that will refuse it - i'm sure it will be more than you predict. Anti vax sentiment is very high sadly and there's a lot of covid denial even in the over 70s...

The vaccine is likely to be highly effective but there are still some unanswered questions such as how long immunity will last from it and there's no denying that it's an almighty logistical challenge even to vaccinate 10 million of the most at risk quickly and smoothly. We won't ever lockdown again imo once the vaccination rollout is in full flow and restrictions into the latter part of 2021 will be minimal if any at all but I still think we will see considerably ICU admissions for some time to come.

It's also worth noting that the wider markets enjoyed two weeks of good cheer following the vaccine news but the positivity is starting to dry up now and the reality of what's to come is kicking in. Things are progressing by the day in the states: https://edition.cnn.com/2020/11/25/health/us-coronavirus-wednesday/index.html and the number of deaths here are creeping back up to May's highs.

I think it's vitally important now that we get an early p3 readout before the winter is out.

Chris I'm not denying that, what I am saying is I cannot foresee the circumstances playing out where this would be anything like £20 on approval. A combination of approval, a chaotic vaccination rollout and orders coming in could set this off like you say. But it will take time and only those holding right to the bitter end have any chance of seeing the sort of multibags you're alluding to...

Pretty sure they have: https://novacytinsider.com/wren-airport/

Im relieved with today as it'll bring confidence back to the nervous and should stabilise the sp even without news. Shorters will be looking for their exits as the downside is too big compared to the upside from here. I've said over the last few weeks that I see the bottom being about £6.50 but stupidly I kept buying on the way down instead of trusting my own intuition and waiting it out!

Without news I think the seesaw will continue this week, ending north of where we are now but probably not by much, say ~£8 by Friday. But we must also be close to some news. Let's hope it's tomorrow!

Marik I don't mean to criticise but your sp predictions are a bit mad. There is almost no way this is now hitting £4 in six weeks time and there is no way this is £20 on approval. Change that to £1.40 and £5 and then I's agree with everything you said.

There will come a turning point soon but we just don't know how low it will go before then. My guess is we're close to the bottom now but it's just that, a guess. If this goes any lower you can almost guarantee a big return as a ST investment but most of us here are already far too heavily invested to benefit from that!

I got shares on the 10th November for 88p, over two weeks ago now, so this isn't that much of a surprise. These will be held down as long as they possibly can be before a sudden snapback occurs. It's happening right across 'covid' related stocks.

Very confident that something will give soon and this will start recovering.