Member Info for HarChris

15 times more shares in issue than 2020? Eek!!! Something very wrong there, clsk are dodgy! I bet Mara have barely diluted over the same period...

Mara - 8.4m shares in 2020, now 117m (as of August) ... oh 14 times.

Have they paid Trinity back? No because it's a three year loan due 2025... they're in the same boat as Microstrategy, if bitcoin isn't looking far healthier in 2025 they're in trouble. Will the market start pricing that in soon? No! It won't price it in until the next bull market has come (and gone).

The important question is, if that funding dries up are they cash flow positive or negative, are they able to simply halt expansion plans and continue mining and selling each month or do they have to tap the markets to keep operating? I'm not capable of working that out but Hexam seems to think clsk are fine at ~$20k btc and current hash. So a few months down the line it would be problematic if BTC sunk much lower or total hash carries on ripping but besides that I suspect clsk makes it through to the next bull run in one piece.

Well I think you're far overcomplicating it. Look at Argo, look at Corz, look at Iris. The market pays very little heed to all the detail you're digging into, all that matters is that these miners don't signal distress.

Three weeks ago, despite all that we knew about Argo, despite the very real funding risk, they were still down just 60% YTD (v good relative to Hut8, clsk etc).

Corz, I'd been shouting for a while that time was very nearly up and yet it took a long time for the market reaction to begin and then the big collapse only occurred when they told the market what most of us already knew, that they are defaulting on their loans.

When it comes to my trade the question I ask myself is, what comes first, clsk showing distress or a bitcoin rally? I am confident it's the latter, I'm confident that this buying strategy will bring down direct costs enough to start generating cash at $20k BTC and I'm not expecting bitcoin to go as low as you are. I'm confident they can withstand further pressure by executing another tranche of shares if necessary. But if you think the former comes first then shorting might be a good option.

Well we certainly differ on where we think bitcoin goes next. What I see is bitcoin itching to rise but being hampered by the weakness of the US markets. Since the Fed decision nasdaq is down 6% and bitcoin is up 2% - the moment it looked like the US markets were turning bitcoin jumped 5%. Too many sticky hands for bitcoin to go as low as you are predicting imo and a relief rally to $25k in the coming weeks is more likely.

I think when markets move CLSK will look more attractive than something like Hut8 that is more like a proxy for holding BTC right now. I think once again growth will be more attractive than BTC holdings and look at the difference between Hut8 and Clsk since the start of the year:

January Hut8 mined 308, clsk 305 ; Now it's 299 vs 532
Funnily enough the markets don't discern between the two strategies, YTD Hut8 is down 72% and clsk down 70%.

You may be right to raise some red flags but on the operational side they are setting EH targets and beating them, that's a positive.

The way I look at it is - they raised $200m at $22 a share, ~$210m at $16 a share and now perhaps ~$65m at $3.60 a share. All lower than what I bought for.

As long as their running costs are below the BTC price (i.e ignoring depreciation) then they won't show signs of distress before the next bull run and that'll suit me...

(ps thanks for updating me on the dilution).

Makes sense though, they've spent $70m just since September on the Sandersville facility and Bitmain machines.

Sorry missed your link, been issuing heavily over the past few months then.

I said they've had 47.1m shares in issue since July (maybe August) going by these sites.

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/c/cleanspark-inc-usd0.001
https://ycharts.com/companies/CLSK/shares_outstanding
https://www.stockopedia.com/share-prices/clean-spark-NAQ:CLSK/

Where are you seeing 65 million?

Does look like a breakout is on the cards...

‘You took your profit maybe a bit to early if there is a take over‘

Sure, that’s a possibility. Last week I shared my disappointment selling out of my 11.5p trade around 13p only for it to be 20p a few days later.

Then again a few days after that it was 7p

You’re hopelessly slow PI calling me a shorter. I took a small position earlier in the week on the 1st:

‘ I took a few too. Won't be holding long but sure this has another rally or two in it before the next RNS lands.’

And I got my rally just now and took my 20% profit.

However much sense you make Hexam the same posters will blindly ignore it and spout the same rubbish. The latest being 'Hexam, this is a long way from administration.' even when PW literally just highlighted the very real risk of administration in the near term.

No you can't. The crypto mining industry is an arms race with virtually no barriers to entry and relies solely on cash, liquidity, low electricity costs, experienced management etc all of which puts Argo in a perilous position.

Tesla are at the forefront of the EV revolution and have raised tens of billions to get to where they are now. No comparison.

Hex - snap!

MNN, I do agree somewhat with that analysis, very decent chance the bottom is in and we'll see a bit of a rally soon, even if we're a year off the next bull run.

PI you do absolutely no analysis, you are simply a bottom feeder going after bombed out shares (whilst clinging on to huge losses too). Nobody should listen to you even if you've caught some nice rises recently.

Blubay, theoretically $21k might help the Argo share price in the very near term but it's not enough to keep them afloat... it's hard to know for sure but I'd think they need at least $25k and probably closer to $30k to manage operations without a funder needing to step in.

As has been said by all the so called derampers, if BTC shows signs of recovery there is tremendous value at anything below 10p but the risk is 100% wipeout if it doesn't. So if bitcoin does recover those who talked it up will think they are the smartest investors in the world and if the opposite happens all the perma bears will be straight on here to gloat about how it was always going to zero.

The issue is that BTC looks relatively robust vis a vis the markets but the backdrop is just so bad that it's difficult to see bitcoin make enough of a move to derisk Argo at this stage.

I saw what Fred said but I find it rather hard to see any wiggle room for Corz as they are absolutely haemorrhaging money and as you say, BTC might even go lower. Argo are no where near as distressed as Corz, simply selling those new machines keeps them in business a good few months whilst Core S are unable to pay their loans and are so far off being able to - the interest alone is tens of millions a month, the principle is 500 million odd and that's just short term debt obligations.

In a sector that is as Darwinesque as it gets there is absolutely no hope for them, even if BTC were to recover in the medium term to $30K (whereas Argo would stay afloat at that price).

Following the hawkish Fed and US market reaction it's rather bullish that BTC is actually higher than it was at 7pm GMT Wednesday.

'Roger “ The company is in trouble and on a knife edge and the market knows it.”'

If one was looking to be truly balanced they would accept that BMN's situation is not ideal, that they need to cough up $40m to Orion in November 2023 if the 17p conversion price hasn't been reached and that it's never a positive to fail to meet a loan obligation. However it is total bs that BMN is on a 'knife edge', they are a business with $150m net assets that has been severely punished as it is for this very reason (currently valued at just $68m) - the worst case situation is they fall short and the renegotiated deal leans more in Orion's favour than BMN's.

As things stand BMN should finish the year at about $14m. They will then be producing ~5200mtV in 2023 and are holding back further expansion until the balance sheet is stronger thanks to the profits that will be generated going forward with capex reduced to near zero. So that's eleven months to generate $31m cash, a tall order but the closer they are to that figure the simpler any renegotiation will be (Orion may for example take $25m cash and $15m in shares, or extend the CLN to 2024 once all interest is paid).

So to reiterate we may find ourselves short come November but Orion are a long term partner with a separate PFA deal with BMN so it's in their interest to cooperate and ~$10m shortfall is minuscule compared to the $300m assets we could put up as collateral.

I agree it's got a bit out of hand (mainly thanks to me) but there's very little to discuss re Argo. They await funding within three months or the administrators come marching in. The end.