Member Info for HarChris

So from what I can see Chae they underwent a $500m ATM offering in June 2021, since then 13 million more shares have been issued at an average of ( I estimate) $16 a share, so maybe about half of that $500m has been utilised, but anywhere between $150m and $350m.

It appears no shares have been issued since July so recent machine purchases were not funded through dilution.

Money where my mouth is anyway, second clsk purchase at 2.87 (first one at 3.37 the other day already hurting!)

I disagree with your 'Whatever way you spin it borrowing money at 12 13 points is awful' as these repayments are a long way off and means despite your narrative they in fact have very little debt to service for a long while yet but otherwise fair enough - let's hope they all come good!

You seem to be belligerently sticking with your narrative even when fairly challenged. All the distressed miners got themselves burnt during the bull market. Corz got themselves in a situation where they owe $500m to creditors within twelve months and have a market cap of just $60m now - hence they're done for. Argo failed to get a PPA in place and in stark contrast to Corz, simply slow burned to their current position, selling bitcoin each month to survive, now selling recently bought new machines to survive and soon having nothing left to sell unless new funding arrives.

Clsk are expanding *in the full knowledge* of what this bear market entails. Corz SP was okay until it was clear they were distressed, Argo was holding up well until they signalled to the market their own liquidity issues. If you are trading clsk (like me and AB) it does not matter what interest rate clsk are paying right now as long as those repayments are kicked down the road, post 2024, the $35m equipment finance loan is due 2025 too.

I know you think clsk are simply expanding because the management get bonuses for that but I don't believe they would be that reckless when they will evidently reap the rewards for a 10X share price in the next 12-18 months otherwise. I'm happy to accept that there is considerably more risk here than with Hut8 who can draw on $173m of HODL or Mara but they are also valued 3X and 9X more respectively.

All are decent trading options imo but with different risk profiles.

But as far as I can see most of these repayments are due 2025, they have no issue funding operations currently and we all expect a bull run by then anyway - if it hasn't come by then I accept losing the lot!

The CFO stated that CLSK were generating free cash flow due to low operating costs and minimal debt service.

Diluting at current prices isn't ideal but just imagine Argo had had an At the Market placing locked in, they'd have sufficient liquidity right now and would be sitting closer to 35p a share...

'Clsk sold shares to raise the Argo money.'

Are you sure? From the $500m ATM placing from 2021? Any idea how much of that they've taken up, I can't seem to find the relevant information...

Yeah AB, should be able see if the BTC:EH efficiency improves marginally next month.

Despite being so close to zero holdings clsk were happy spending $6m on machines this month which suggests that they are generating cash at $19.3k BTC currently (even accounting for additional coins sold). With extra hash online this month (385PH + immersion benefits) and bitcoin above $20k I think their strategy looks sound but it doesn't come without risk...

If BTC were to fall to <$17k or hash rate continues ripping (unlikely with all the future miner casualties) clsk will need new funding - very fine line but on the right side of it currently and expanding prudently in my opinion.

'But Hut8 mined 277 in September vs 448 for CLSK. With one expanding faster than the other that could soon be more than 200 per month more than Hut8 / 2500 a year.'

Now 299 vs 532 so actually 233 more a month / 2750 a year. Yes their holdings are very low but can't argue with the pace of growth in this bear market...

Does that mean there's value at 7.5p today? Well no not if what I've just said is accurate, you're risking losing the lot for a potential 20% or so upside currently. Better to wait for lower or wait for funding and buy a bit higher but with short-medium future secured.

Again it depends on the situation. 2.3EH and a facility like Helios already set up is worth far, far more than $23m. As mentioned most investors are probably sitting on the sidelines waiting to share in the spoils like vultures but it is still possible that investors will see some value here as I described. Just three weeks ago the share price was 35p and PW may well have got a placing away at 27p if it wasn't for foolishly announcing the LOI, tanking the share price and scaring any interest away at that price.

Bitcoin is higher than it was when Argo was 35p before the RNS dropped in early October - I'm not saying investors will be queuing up to take a chunk right now but I'm sure at ~8p, and the requisite cash injection they'll be interested parties.

I have five accounts AB and never ever get a prediction wrong.

It's a good question and it would depend on the risk appetite of the investor. $27m alongside the recent $12.4m cash boost from selling ~7000 machines would give Argo a considerably long runway for bitcoin to turn. They'd have enough with BTC at $20K I think to potentially be involved in buying the scraps from the likes of Corz (and many other small companies' like Luxxfolio) too.

CleanSpark recently bought Mawson's Sandersville facility for about $37m total. That was for just 560PH/s of hash with the potential to add 1EH/s. Obvious with Argo you are taking on considerable debt too but 2.5EH/s is a pretty strong starting point and Helios can be expanded considerably. So if you can get just over a third of the company, say (250 million shares of a total 730 million after dilution) and are confident of steering Argo through the bear market an investor will likely be diluting themselves further down the line at a higher share price than the 8.5p they themselves entered.

Having said that the risk here would still be high so I imagine most investors would hold off in the hope of buying Argo out of administration for peanuts or as you say, buying BTC directly.

I think you're right, there's a decent chance that investor will be back in with $27m if Peter gives him/her 45% of the company - I reckon three times what they were offered before is plausible.

Maybe you're right but £46m profit is pretty gigantic for a company valued at £10m don't you think? Know any other companies winning contracts at 96 times their mcap with profit around 5 times their mcap?

I can read perfectly well thank you. You said this: 'the weak will fall and the strong will survive to form a monopoly. 'and then insinuated Argo is the strong if PW pulls his finger out. I'm afraid it's far, far too late for that, PW needs help from the heaven's to survive, they are totally reliant on bitcoin rallying, they desperately need other miners to fold/switch off machines first to slow the cash burn... if bitcoin goes lower they haemorrhage even more money and their fate is sealed even sooner. The market knows this and will punish Argo, unless the above happens (bitcoin rises/hash rate plummets) at best they'll be giving away huge amounts of equity for peanuts and any potential upside will be severely diminished.

You're right about the weak falling and the strong surviving but the weak is (i) Corz, (ii) Argo in that order.

It looks like Corz stopped trading earlier today, anyone got any info on that?

Come on you’re embarrassing yourself if you’re saying Argo is one of the strong - they are selling their recently bought machines to survive another couple of months…

Small operation this one it looks like, about 0.35EH/s.

I suppose if there’s lots of small miners like this though it will start to have a cumulative effect.

Well I timed by clsk entry well didn’t I aha