Member Info for HarChris

There's nothing fishy about the coordinated social media ramp, it's what they do when they spot a potential multibagger in amongst a very uncertain and weak market. They know how to make money and they probably won't even have to wait to see if Harl bag the big contract as the share price will run much higher as speculation grows.

From what I can remember every time a local bottom is in bitcoin bounces hard off the lows and holds a good 15 or 20 percent higher. As that hasn't happened it does look like there's at least one more crater to come.

And as has been said before with no chance of tapping the debt markets and a low chance of raising under these conditions they are left with nothing but hope of a bitcoin recovery. My personal estimations are around 6 months of runway at $20k BTC, down to about 4 and a half months with BTC at new lows. If we get to February, March without a recovery after that it's a case of selling Helios or simply accepting a takeover at something like 3p a share.

They seriously need a BTC recovery and are running out of time.

'2 years ago or so bitty was $9000. All about perspective. Dont see arb lasting that long in all honesty. Just a punt now but not cheap enough yet'

The problem is bitcoin went mainstream, institutions got involved and the cryptorati told us that it was the end of boom and busts with bitcoin. Not only was that wrong we are now seeing the worst bust of all, the first time it's gone below the previous bull market high. Michael Saylor boasting how bitcoin has fared vs all other indices, slowly he's having to increase that timeframe more and more and more.

I did actually think Argo was oversold recently. I think they'd be at 25p not 7p if they had moved early on a placing before the market turned quite so drastically (I was calling for it in August on the spike to 50p and then again numerous times after) but PW broke the golden rule, he waited til they had run out of cash and were forced rather and that will be their ruin.

I still thought there was value to be had here earlier in the week but with BTC looking so weak it's impossible to imagine anybody is going to stump up cash to prop up the (second) weakest publicly listed miner.

It’s scary how many throw money at AIM shares and literally have no idea what they are doing. Being 98% down is not a reason enough to invest in a company.

Got to say Chae very, very good call from the weekend. Obviously you couldn't have known that this would implode quite so quickly but either way you're right.

Well I reduced my clsk by 60% yesterday when I saw all the chatter on Twitter, what I have left is 1% of my portfolio. Can stomach that falling!

Does look panicky at the moment that’s for sure.

Bitcoin momentum gone now frustratingly, rather relieved my only miner longs are in clsk and relatively minor (excuse the pun).

If Chaebol's call ends up right we're going to see the mother all other crashes in this sector. Get researching now so you're able to make thoughtful decisions if that eventuality plays out.

I think we should address the negativity from a poster like Alfredh rather than ignore or it write it off as spamming.

The positives make for a long list right now. We've got through the teething problems with vanchem kiln 3 to now be in a position to produce 5000-5400mtV next year, we are just six months away from the long awaited electrolyte plant to finally be finished and commissioned, we are very close to the vametco mini grid to go live which should open the door to tons of mini grid projects in the years to come.

So despite all the difficulties this year it looks like we're through it in one piece with strong, positive EBITDA and about breakeven at the net profit level. We enter 2023 with vastly increased scale and with it an expectation of vastly reduced costs, with Fortune today speaking potentially of <$30/kg AISC next year. If that were to be achieved at current V prices we're talking profit before tax of a whopping $45m-$50m. If V were to tick up slightly that quickly looks more like $60m... We're valued at $74m today. You keep mentioning lack of sales from the electrolyte but this doesn't require the electrolyte to be producing next year, this doesn't require the better margins that we're all hoping for, that will all be added value in the years to come.

Yes there's one overriding risk factor right now and it's load shedding. This year it's had a massive negative impact but it caught BMN by surprise, it's been unprecedentedly bad and there wouldn't have been much Fortune could have done to prepare for such an unknown eventuality. Fortune spoke today positively about finding a solution, of sorting a power agreement akin to Vametco (where load shedding has had virtually no impact).

We hope what Fortune says proves true and the effect of load shedding next year is greatly mitigated but investing is all about risk/reward, we're valued at $74m today with so many positives stacking up and with negatives that are not unforeseen now and in which solutions can be found. If all the worst case scenarios play out, if we are forced to renegotiate on bad terms next year with Orion, if load shedding persists what do you expect the share price to be? 4p? 3p? There's no threat of default and our net assets are not going to plummet with vanadium's future importance in the world so the downside is minimal from here.

But if load shedding is brought under control, if the positive talks with Orion that are ongoing show a positive arrangement agreed (if BMN were to come up a little short next year ) then those sitting around waiting for 4p to enter are going to be pretty peed off when the share price has rallied back to net asset value and beyond and we're at 20p+ again.

It's worth noting what net debt is, it's simply how much more debt there is than cash. The reason our net debt is so high is because we've expanded significantly to a point that our net assets are just shy of $150m.

With capex on hold next year we will almost certainly start posting a profit which means, starting with ~$15m cash, we won't be too far shy as things stand of the amount Orion will be owed. To make up a small shortfall (~$10m) renegotiation will not be hard with $147m net assets to put up as collateral.

I think the truth is now BC that Argo's fate is out of their hands. They failed to get a ppa in place when needed, they failed to increase their efficiency to a BTC per EH equivalent to peers but the biggest failure of all was around the recent placing and LOI. The share price was 35p at the time, bite the bullet and give a big discount and offer it up to the public at 25p, they would have received a decent backing with perhaps an II on board too. Raise say $22m at 25p, renegotiate the NYDIG agreement, sell one batch of machines and they are good for another 10 months or so.

No instead the share price is 30% of that possible placing price and their operations are even smaller than they would have been - total f*** up and leaves them very little wiggle room but hopes and prayers.

PI 40p is a pipe dream right now unless bitcoin rallies hard (which we've both predicted) but this FTX calamity is sending bitcoin the other way. Argo have already told the market 'WE"RE DISTRESSED AND RUNNING OUT OF CASH' and their hand is weakened further by bitcoin dropping. The share price was just 35p in early October before shareholders knew how bad the finances were, when we thought they'd be at 3.2EH/s by the end of the year and instead they've been forced to sell an amount of machines equivalent to a third of their total capacity for peanuts.

40p is not happening without a miracle, 20p is possible with almost everything going their way over the next few months.

7p is what the market is telling us today.

Yeah the debt option is off the table, I imagine they can’t sell portions of the mining fleet and the equity route is excessively dilutive to give them twelve months runway.

If they believe they have four to five months cash runway based on BTC at $19K I think their only option is to cross their fingers that Bitcoin recovers in that time and be ready to get a placing away asap closer to 20p.

The only other option is to look to sell the business for ~£40m just to guarantee salvaging something. Even with the debt I can see interested parties at 10p that can absorb the losses (like they are anyway) until the next bull run.

Yeah, I guess I was stressing that the lights aren't going off just yet, there should be a minimum of four months for either bitcoin to turn (and things to look rosier and a placing much higher) or to raise an extra ~$10m for a further three months runway. Personally I think it's more like six months but as you say, we're unlikely to go that long without further developments.

No investment case here now but a decent risk/reward for those trading in the 6p-7.5p range imo.

Well I don't think they will have had to dip into the recently raised funds due to selling so much bitcoin this month. They now have at least $5.7m + $6.8m + $5.6m = $18.1m by my calculations so all it $2.5m cash burn per month and you have more than 6 months, $3m a month and you have six months.

Outstanding financial commitments to intel/epic would change that obviously and lower bitcoin would reduce it slightly but I think they have at least four months of runway still and maybe as much as seven.

578 BTC sold at $20k average is $11.6m

I wouldn't say that's the case Hexam, they sold extra bitcoin that more than covers it to pay off the loan.

I know you don't do research BP so I'll help you out here. The runway from their recent strategic actions should give them six months of breathing space, down to perhaps 5 if BTC goes lower. They are in an awful position yes but should be just enough of a cash injection from the machine sales to keep them afloat.

Not suggesting it's looking promising here, it's not, I fully expect them to be out of business in the future. For now though they should live to fight another day but wouldn't be surprised if PW is trying to get a small placing away at 7p currently.

If you’re right the strategy has to be hold off for a few months then buy as much Mara/Riot / any other in a position to scoop up all the assets in administration.

$1550 per TH might end up looking expensive !

No surprises, as expected but what matters right now is Bitcoin looking stronger and it’s dumping. Expecting a fairly large drop here

So far Chae your call on short term movement is looking good.