Member Info for HarChris

That Dave Hunter theory is very plausible, although the name is too generic to be applied to a strategy, it’s the name of my plumber.

The question is does Bitcoin go with the markets this time or do we see the coupling in the opposite manner to predicted?

Yeah it depends on if you’re thinking short term or long term. Short term the markets might rally hard if there’s a sign that interest rate increases might slow but we are still going to see higher and higher interest rates even if those jumps are only 0.5% and we’ve seen what damage has been done in just six months or so.

The Bank of England says we’re on for the longest recession since records began, I’m inclined to agree with them. Will be looking to trade the rallies but cash (or even savings account!) seems the best option over the next few years.

Interestingly if it wasn't for Bankman-Fried bitcoin would probably be $25K today and if it wasn't for the CPI data yesterday bitcoin would probably be at $15k today. But what we can pretty much say for sure is that the FTX fiasco has damaged the crypto space for at least the short-mid term and that is extremely bad for Argo and certain miners (well all miners in a sense as they absorb bigger losses for longer).

With the threat of contagion still present any rallies are likely to be sold into and with bitcoin stuck in the doldrums it's simply a matter of times til certain miners start falling.

Are you sure AB? I think this'll harden the resolve of the Fed and have them believe that overtightening will get there quicker. No change when you zoom out a little and look at this chart:

https://twitter.com/benheck/status/1590723006502154240

Excellent thread this from BBN on twitter, I'm sure he won't mind me sharing it on here:

https://twitter.com/BigBiteNow/status/1590672584102010880

When is Argo's Q3 results released? Would need to see how the current liabilities are looking to know how big the risk of default is this year or whether they could get away with switching off machines for a few months and waiting for bitcoin to turn.

That nasdaq rally has given bitcoin a breather but whether $16k or $18k it's all much the same to Argo, cash flow negative and haemorrhaging the last of the cash they have remaining. If bitcoin can't push back above $20k (after nasdaq rises 7.35%!) then this is looking perilous.

It actually closed in the UK at 7.6p, a very solid 12% rise still.

Trading at just 7.2p stateside currently though.

Ps just seen your next post, fair enough if it happens in the next 8 hours!

To be fair I'm with PI here, you were suggesting that we were about to see the mother of all crashes, but of course that was pre CPI data and worse than expected CPI was what you were thinking.

'Mark this post Thursday 10th November will be known in crypto circles as ‘The day of capitulation’

It's okay to get the odd call wrong Chae! I also think it might in the days and weeks ahead but not today now.

Nasdaq is up almost 6% and BTC is floundering below $17.5k, that's not bullish.

The FTX fiasco looks to be potentially spreading right across the crypto ecosystem. I just saw a post by TheWolfofAllStreets which perfectly sums it up, 'People I have never seen show a single ounce of fear or doubt are showing signs of capitulating.'

Never know though, contagion might not happen and the US market pump might be enough to settle the nerves with crypto. Tough call right now.

With Arb it's a case of getting in and out before one gets burnt - no doubt it'll go higher if bitcoin goes higher.

Just as FTX put the reins on what was looking like a relief rally coming this CPI data has taken some of the heat off what was looking like further capitulation. Can't second guess this market.

Chae I've noticed that you mirror Il Capo of Crypto to the letter... unless that is actually you?

Somewhere between 31 and 33 ;)

It's pure guesswork if you have no statistical analysis to back it up - bottom feeding based on intuition is destined to fail long term.

Look at the nasdaq futures, a massive rally to come today - could be some light relief for bitcoin.

I do think BTC at $22k = Arb at around 18p, but BTC at $16k (and potential contagion) = Arb 4p

The bankruptcy risk is so heightened as to make $22k and $16k completely different situations.

Certainly is just your opinion PI haha

I don't think anyone sensible is predicting $5k, few even predicting $10k but there's a decent chance the fallout from FTX is not yet over and BTC goes lower. I agree with you though, there's a massive percentage of bitcoin holders who will not sell this low and would rather go down with the ship if anything and that'll inevitably put some sort of floor on the price.

Personally my target is anything <$15k, got buy orders in for $14.9k and $14.1k. Could it go lower? Probably but I'm not fussed about catching the bottom.

Well let's all hope the cash is in a high interest savings account rather than being spaffed up the wall - at 5% interest we have a P/E ratio of about 10! Haha