Member Info for HarChris

You've argued that novacyt are fuc*** with DA in charge, obviously him stepping down whilst there's nearly a £100m in the bank would therefore be a positive because someone more competent potentially takes over? Or have you become so negative that positivity is not something you are able to summon up anymore?!

It's very simple PI100, whatever happens you go for negative spin. Here you've called for David to go for months and yet when he does step down/get sacked instead of rejoicing you go the opposite route - you suggest something bad behind the scenes (unfavourable dispute outcome perhaps?!) and focus on the immediate share price.

If you can't see it fine but the rest of us can, this should be a positive for you but you won't bring yourself to admit it.

Yeahh! Another 23p and you can retire! :)

There is so much potential contagion out there it's unreal. Maybe it turns out to all be FUD and nothing materialises but there's also a very real chance that rugs are pulled from every corner imaginable now.

Interesting weeks ahead that's for sure.

So PI100 you scream for his removal for months, claim there's no chance of success with him at the helm and now you're saying things can't get worse because he's gone?

A bit of consistency please!

CPI data at 1.30 UK time will play a part in the next price move.

Wow, was not expecting that !

I believe this was him just last week: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iyRmAdMlQDY

I'm being pedantic DSFLAT but it's virtually impossible for their to be no publicly listed miners here in one year. Many of them have no debt to repay within that time frame and if half the network folds and the best miners pick them up for peanuts they could get to the point where they are generating cash <$10k BTC and profitable from as low as $20k BTC. Bitcoin would have to stay depressed until about 2025 for many of the miners to become distressed due to large debt repayments.

If you mean half the publicly traded miners then yes that's possible.

I think of the current crop of miners they'll be two or three left in say 2025/26 that own the majority of the network, plus a couple of new entities that scooped up cheap assets in this bear market. Those winners will once again see their share price boom in the next bull run and enough money will be raised to secure their future for a while longer

Eventually over time with the halvings and mistimed strategy execution they'll probably all run into trouble and fold.

I'm still tempted to jump in earlier than later on bitcoin miners Chae, on those that are guaranteed survival for 18 months+ and could potentially sweep up the bankrupt. Thoughts on decent entries for Mara, Hut8 and Riot?

Seeing lots on twitter calling for $11k so I think the bottom will come in a little higher than that... I shall be looking to buy back into BTC for the first time in two years if it touches $14k and sit on that til the next bull run.

Bitcoin heading sub $17k.

The point I'm trying to make is that if you invest today there's a very high chance you will see 5 times returns from here and a fairly decent chance of seeing 10 times plus. However if I were to say that was guaranteed, that this was a cert you'd know I was talking s***, as there's no such thing as a 5 bagger cert. However the business has grown to such a degree that they are able to weather most storms, they can absorb a considerably worse macro climate for a good few years before they would themselves become distressed.

So barring the absolute worst case scenario playing out or something unforeseen that can't be managed successfully (like a pandemic) then this really is one hell of an opportunity for those able to buy and wait a year or two.

Let's back up a little. In 2018 and 2019 the vanadium price spiked to such a degree that Bushveld, despite only being a relatively small vanadium producer at the time, was able to make profit that far exceeded its mcap prior to the spike. Those years pretty much secured Bushveld's future and put it on the path to becoming a major player in the vanadium space.

With the now healthy bank balance Bushveld went ahead and bought Vanchem at the back end of 2019, at this point all looked rosy. Little did they know that there was a pandemic about to strike.

As with most companies around the world covid forced Bushveld to shut down operations and, having paid $30m in cash (as well as about the same again in CLNs) for Vanchem, suddenly they were running out of cash to continue operations and expansion plans. Yet, due to the scale of BMN's plans and the potential profit they would be making in the future they were able to raise a huge amount of cash, $65m, with Orion Mine Finance (roughly 50/50 PFA and CLN @17p conversion price).

This is what brings us to the bull and bear case today. Debt obviously increases the risk substantially for a small cap miner like Bushveld. There is about $40m (inc interest) that will need to be paid back to Orion in November 2023 (providing the share price isn't 17p) and that currently is a doubt. If of course something like covid reared its ugly head again, if the load shedding in South Africa continued indefinitely without a work-around solution for Bushveld then there would be a chance of default in the years ahead. This is a fact for all companies with unserviceable debt but let me stress... this is extremely unlikely.

Now the bull case speaks for itself. The operational size and potential profit that Bushveld may generate is simply obscene for a company valued at $75m. It is no exaggeration to say that with a headwind behind them BMN could soon be a $50m+ profit company and a major electrolyte manufacturer and valued at $600m+ / 45p a share. And this is only the base/bull case, this is not the blue sky case. The blue sky case (which is more than possible) is for vrfb growth to cause a supply squeeze on vanadium and for the price of vanadium to spike, providing a situation like 2018/19 all over again... this time without doubt the share price would go to a £1 a share (as profits would be off the scale at 5200mtV), which from here is a 2000% rise.

So think of it like this. There is potential for things to go wrong, if the macroeconomy gets so bleak and drags the price of vanadium back down to basement bottom levels and if issues in South Africa take a turn for the worse. This is what is being heavily priced in right now and explains why the share price is where it is. However far, far too much of that downside risk is being priced in - the base case/bull case sees shareholders investing today with potential life changing returns and with, I would say, far better odds than the worst case scenario playing out.

No I don't think so HGN, probably be more BTC dumps and further panic selling here.

Having said that I don't think it will be far off the bottom for now, I'll be looking at a speculative trade if I get offered <6p this week.

Yesterday, on open, after BTC fell from $21k to $19.8k, I was offered 6.5p to buy
Right now, after BTC slid a further 13% to 2 year lows, I am offered 7.35p.

Make it make sense.

PI I would imagine ~5/6p is as low as the share price will go for the time being but as time goes by if bitcoin hasn't bounced hard or there's no further news on funding the last remaining bag holders will get nervy and dump for the next leg down to 3.5p etc

There is equity in Helios but we're talking 2.3EH/s of used machines = $23m tops, realistically less now if new-in-box machines are going for $15000 (pre the recent bitcoin crash and crypto contagion).

I think Helios would still be worth ~$90m today but their debts are higher than that so we're looking at a net liability rather than net assets and makes Argo rather worthless with bitcoin sentiment as low as it is - again that all changes if bitcoin turns and shows strength but for now acquirers are more likely to wait to take Helios from administrators for half of that.

There's nothing fishy about the coordinated social media ramp, it's what they do when they spot a potential multibagger in amongst a very uncertain and weak market. They know how to make money and they probably won't even have to wait to see if Harl bag the big contract as the share price will run much higher as speculation grows.

From what I can remember every time a local bottom is in bitcoin bounces hard off the lows and holds a good 15 or 20 percent higher. As that hasn't happened it does look like there's at least one more crater to come.