Member Info for HarChris

No I said I'd bet any money it doesn't hit 10p today, you then called me out when it got close and I said if it hits 10p fair enough, then I've called this wrong! ... it didn't so I'd have won that bet if anyone had taken me up on it :)

Interesting, thanks for that info AB.

What we do know is that when bitcoin rallies, hash rate lags considerably. It's why there's so much money to be made investing in miners in the early stages of a bull market.

Yeah PI had the nerve to call me out on my prediction before the price had actually reached 10p bid. Close but no cigar.

https://corescientific.com/ Interesting to follow as Corz report their daily mined numbers (top left hand corner) - going out of business almost certainly but for the time being no hash coming offline, still mining 40+ a day.

That's fair enough AB but hash rate more than doubled in the last bull market, there's now more interest than ever so I'd expect it to at least double again. If Argo falls behind the competition it's very possible even with improvements elsewhere that they'll need as much as $55K BTC to breakeven.

Of course bitcoin could rally well past that and Argo would survive but my point is that this is an industry where just a handful of companies are going to be left remaining in a few years times, Argo is currently at the back in that race.

The big question is at what price does BTC need to reach for Argo to start making money again? We know from the calculations Hexam has done that currently it's about $42K, we also know they despite machines dropping in price by nearly 90% Argo are in no position to invest and expand, we can also guess that once bitcoin starts rising hash rate will push on higher.

So we're looking at about ~$55K BTC for Argo to breakeven taking into account all the above, a little lower if they manage to sort a ppa at a good rate. With no HODL on top and the macro outlook do you really think there's going to be that many interested parties?

Argo needs not only money to keep going for twelve months but also 10 or so million to compete once the next bull run comes. Simple survival in this industry will inevitably lead to failure.

Mainly a load of punters unwilling to accept defeat is my guess Chae. This has gone from 36p to 7p in a few weeks, tough to argue that there’s a big buyer in the background (although possible I give you that).

Throw needs huge funding to compete over the coming years.

Why would the SI be buying up shares? The business needs a cash injection and without it they're finished. The SI would be risking losing the entirety of their holding if they went that route.

Nah I’m sticking with my original wording… why? Because it’s the only reason a company valued at $150m is trading at $60m. There are others factors involved, yes but none of them would have seen traders dumping at 7p, at 6p, at 5p all the way down to 4p - only the major threat from a crashing V price could have left the share price as beaten up as it is.

Give me more load shedding, give me more logistics issues, if V carries on rising BMN will follow.

Never has it been more important to stay glued to the Bitcoin price - if Bitcoin starts to recover (soon) towards $40K Argo lives to fight another day and will be worth 25p, maybe twice that.

If it doesn’t there’s no good outcomes here.

Once again a binary play but this time it’s on the Bitcoin price over the short term rather than the SI

By 10p I meant no way in hell you'll be able to sell for 10p today (as that's what you claimed).

Not there yet but hands up if I'm end up being wrong - very surprised but fair play!!!

'Got a feeling that when investors take a step back the last two RNS's might just be seen as nothing reports so we should actually be back at the 15/18p range - lets see'

Are you having a laugh? They have come out and admitted that they are close to bankruptcy without securing funding. They have no chance of tapping the debt markets and with the share price so very low now they have a choice of absolutely diluting the hell out of current shareholders or selling more machines and switching off the rest.

I mean even if they do secure some funding or go down the latter route they are hardly going to be in a position to compete when the next bull market comes around, are they???

They've more or less stated how much money they need to survive the next twelve months, $27m (more if you include the NYDig proposed amendment + they received less for machines than first hoped). If they attempt a shareholder placing we're now talking roughly 350 million shares at 8p a share, that's a 73% dilution.

They could attempt to raise half that to minimise dilution but that gives them just six months runway for bitcoin to turn, I'm not sure you get enough PIs coughing up in that scenario.

Well I'd bet any money that this doesn't reach 10p today, even with it at 7.8p now and rising.

Wow, you don't think it's wise to wait one day for the share price to settle? Look at Corz, fell 70% on open and continued to drift down the following days.

Calamari my best guess was that the funding wouldn't go through at 27p but would be renegotiated at a lower price - that's still on the table one would think but the failure to get funding before this RNS is a big red flag.

Hard to imagine they'll get anywhere near enough to survive more than 6 months unless bitcoin starts recovering - basically their fate is in bitcoin's hands over the next month or so.

What the f are you talking about? I'm not boasting about my rubbishy trade, I'm calling out the know it alls that acted like there was only ever one outcome here - there wasn't. There were two and it's gone the wrong way for those still holding.

I think it's very much worth remembering that the only reason the share price has fallen so far is the risk that the impending global recession and energy crises (especially Europe) sends the price of vanadium crashing to an extremely painful level for BMN, giving them a very weak renegotiation position when it comes to the Orion CLN in a year's time.

What has actually happened? Vanadium has remained high enough to see Bushy become cash flow positive and is now rising across all markets leaving us even more profitable than we were before.

Drop overdone.

Unlike some of the know it alls I feel I've been more objective over the past few weeks and highlighted the possible scenarios that could play out and the potential risk vs reward. Sadly for those who took a punt hoping for the placing to go through, it hasn't, and the RNS has landed before any further funding has been agreed. It's no deramp to say this will almost definitely fall to the single digit pennies today (it fell to 11p whilst the deal was still on the table).

It's still more than possible that there are renegotiations going on with the SI to take considerably more of the company for $27m but it would probably have to go to a shareholder vote.

The binary bet has got even riskier but from an even lower baseline now and I imagine the same price action is going to happen again over the next two weeks (except from 6p to 12p and back again).

AB even two weeks ago in the RNS they were expecting $2000 per machine and since then it was lowered to $1450 per unit - total shi*show

Oh my days that is bad. Argo needs Bitcoin to rally now in the coming months or they are dead.

This just got a whole lot riskier.