Member Info for HarChris

I agree on the bitcoin front, it's very unlikely that the bottom is anywhere near $5K, I personally would be very surprised if it goes as low as $12K (and no I wasn't one of those that said it would never go to $20K). For me there's value in buying BTC at this price and waiting patiently for however long it takes to recover but that does not apply to bitcoin miners and it especially doesn't apply to miners like Argo in a liquidity mess.

Argo needs considerable financial assistance to last the next 12 months with BTC at $19k (the funding announced a week or so ago), if BTC were to go to what I think the worst could be, ~$14K, then Argo would likely be pushed to the edge far sooner even with the proposed funding.

Scrap Core Scientific from the list, they are bust in the coming months barring a bitcoin recovery. There's no way they are raising enough capital to go on an acquisition spree when they are up to their neck in unpayable debt.

I agree about the likes of Mara and Riot likely being interested in a takeover but at what price? For example if this placing breaks down and Argo collapses to 5p I could see an offer coming in to buy them out outright for 12p or even 15p, would salvage something for Argo and be a fast track to considerably higher hash rate for any buyer.

Yes MPO I do believe my options (i) and (ii) are feasible however the chances of (i) are low. I'll tell you why they might go for option (ii).

Before the latest RNS Argo was valued at about 35p, at which point the SI was looking at buying 15% of the company for $27m. The only reason the share price is *this* low is because there's obvious doubts over whether this goes through and if it doesn't Argo are in a perilous position. If the SI is now able to get 15% of the company for even cheaper then that is obviously going to be appealing. They get it at almost half price to what it was when they first started negotiating and then provide the capital to keep it afloat which eradicates all the uncertainty.

I think (ii) is the most likely of the three outcomes and it's why I'm tempted to have a punt at 12p despite the obvious major downside risk.

Three main options I see:
(i) best case - deal goes through as stated in previous RNS, share price rallies to close to placing price. 100% upside (12.5p to 25p),
(ii) base case - a deal is reached after renegotiation and SI takes 15% of the company for ~$20m / 20p a share, ~50% upside (12.5p to 18.5p)
(iii) worst case - deal falls through, Argo announces they are seeking funding from alternative sources, survival in doubt ~60% downside, (12.5p to 5p)

Place your bets.

You're consistently correct, this is moving just not in the direction you keep predicting. Also agree about BTC breaching the next support level, it's looking perilously closer to going below $19k.

When are you expecting to hear next from the company? Before the October operational update?

I took a huge gamble seeing all the hype and signed myself up to a load of new accounts as well as my mum’s, my dad’s and an account for my girlfriend at the time, each with ~£5k (actually received ~£550 per account). Sold five of them between £2300 and £2600 and a couple more on the way down for a grand.

Fun times! Talk about gamification of the stock market.

The same also happened with cannabis stocks. A couple caught alight then Kanabo listed in late 2020 and multibagged for no other reason than mindless hype and then the last to IPO, Cellular Goods, was backed by DB Ventures. The narrative was whipped up on twitter that David Beckham would be personally marketing their products and becoming a brand ambassador and it was successful enough to see the 5p IPO price become 30p within 60 minutes of trading only to slowly bleed to death over 18 months back down to 1p.

It's still going at 1.6p if anyone wants to ride it back up :D

Two new miner lows today - Arbk @ $1.53 and Corz now at $0.97.

Both looking precarious.

The share price is where it is largely because of the market backdrop...anything, literally anything but unambiguously ground breaking news does nothing for the share price, any hint of negativity and share prices tank. And it's partly the knowledge that Avacta's P1a news is going to land in the midst of such market uncertainty and weakness that the share price isn't considerably higher, maybe even multiples of where it is right now.

The fact that many of us consider HCI converting millions of shares 24% higher than today's SP a major negative does say something to the potential value on offer right now.

This is only a small holding for me but I'm rather tempted to make it a little bigger in the coming days.

Would it be legal for the SI to be buying shares now whilst they mull their decision whether or not to follow through on the placing? If so they'd almost certainly be buying up more at half the price so a lack of big buying would lead towards them pulling out...

Having said that I'm assuming any buying from them would be insider info at this stage?

'It's hard to see this as anything but a decent but risk averse deal for Avacta, a bloody fantastic deal for HCI.'

Actually I take it back somewhat... upon further reflection I see this as a very good deal/partnership for both parties and a very interesting development.

It's hard to see this as anything but a decent but risk averse deal for Avacta, a bloody fantastic deal for HCI.

This is the weakest BTC has looked for a while, nasdaq soared on Monday (~3.5% up), rose yesterday 0.90% and today futures are green and yet BTC has stubbornly stuck at $19.5k, in fact it's slightly down over the same period.

It may just be lagging but a few weeks ago we were talking of a decoupling the other way whereas now BTC looks to be gradually falling even with US markets rebounding.

Thanks, reading your note now Myles, very much appreciated.

Quick question though... as things stand Heights Capital Ireland can convert the bond to shares whenever they wish (if they wish), right? So if P1a data blows the bloody doors off in the coming weeks and the share price rallies past £2 HCI can just instantly convert their bond into 46.3 million shares @118.75p? Is that correct?

If so it's a bit of a shame as it would certainly put the breaks on a major rally somewhat, be better if the ball was in our court still in regards to conversion/repayment.

Their debt to equity ratio is now 3.5:1 , $370m market cap is miniscule for a company with $1.2B debt and they are burning through cash like there's no tomorrow. Yeah I think that Riley money will be gone in a flash even with their relatively high monthly revs of ~$24m.

Anyway enough Corz for now, this is the Argo BB after all but I am confident that they are in even more trouble than Argo and will be the first to bite the dust barring a meaningful BTC recovery.

Apologies, I didn't edit that second line.

I think you're underestimating the mess they're in. They have liabilities due within the year of over $500m, the interest they are pay on their They started the year with $118m cash, they've sold around 14000BTC since and are left with just $29m cash - that's how bad their cash burn is and now they are left with 1050BTC. They may be mining 1200BTC a month but $24m pails in comparison to what's coming out, it won't even cover the interest payments for three months.

I think we hear something by February but probably earlier.

Barclays gave them a buy rating just two weeks ago today and they are already 36% since, you couldn't make it up. And that's with BTC down 1% in the same period.

From my own analysis I have them hitting real issues even earlier than that, about four months it looks like to me unless BTC bounces. They might even cave earlier and try to restructure before the administrators take control.

Why is a new difficulty high (albeit lower than you thought it might be) bullish for miners?

Looking at the Corz share price I'd imagine 5% of the entire network has is going to be up for grabs on the cheap very soon. New all time low posted whilst all the others besides Argo well off their own 52 week lows.

Hexam might seem like a deramper to some on here because he turned bearish about six months ago and has warned that the risks are getting bigger (although not big enough for he himself to favour selling rather over holding on) and those very risks have ended up biting Argo on the arse.

Maybe he has an ulterior motive, none of us know him personally so can’t say for sure but whatever he is he is smart, he is analytical and he gives us the facts which is what matters in the end of the day.

Yes he’s been gloomy with his assessments of late but a deramper is someone who exaggerates the facts to try encourage others to sell (like the rampers here do non stop for the reverse) and Hexam has never done that so it’s wrong to call him a deramper.