Member Info for HarChris

He’ll never sell, he’s too obsessed with the share

300EH in a bear market in which no one can turn a profit, what's it going to be if BTC gradually moves back to $100k by say 2024? 800EH? Higher?

The barriers to entry are just far too low to make companies in this sector viable long term investments, there really is no way to discern oneself from another besides timing and therefore maximising raises. And that means taking even bigger risks in the next bull run...

Profit to be made on any bitcoin spikes for sure but hard to imagine more than 4 or 5 of the big 8 or 9 listed miners still being here in 5 years time.

To be fair AB you have a point. A few months back the miners were piling on pressure as they also had a big HODL to sell, not just coins mined (think Corz selling 7200BTC in June), now besides the likes of Hut8, Mara and possibly the odd other the most damage they can do is more or less selling what they mine each month.

Still, as the next halving gets nearer these companies aren't going to want to be sitting on virtually no bitcoin in treasury, will see a lot of different strategies in the next bull market with big winners and losers I'm sure.

Look at Corz, needing to sell 1576 vs 1213 mined and that's at an average of over $20k, now imagine bitcoin takes a step down to $15k? We're talking over 2000 coins needing to be sold to be in the same position as this month.

Completely unsustainable.

Are there other new entrants to the sector like this that anyone knows of using the bear market to expand rapidly? https://www.coindesk.com/business/2022/10/03/bitcoin-miner-merkle-increases-hashrate-by-900-in-8-months/

For me the selling pressure from miners will be the number one reason for such a long drawn out bear market but more than ever I'm expecting a very sharp reaction when the floodgates finally open - the $64000 dollar question is when will that be and how much pain will there be beforehand? For those like me with modest cash on hand it's all about timing, otherwise I'd probably start buying the most resilient miners now and just suck up the volatility for however many months it takes.

For a few days it did look strong against the nasdaq but back to business as usual. There's a lot of selling pressure to absorb from the miners still which isn't likely to stop any time soon...

Corz - 1213 mined, 1576 sold, just 1051 BTC left, cash down from $47.2m to $29.5m - definitely looking like the first to run into real trouble come the new year.

We aren't likely to see much of a rebound in share price til V edges higher but this sort of vrfb growth is exactly what'll cause that.

Build them (vrfbs) and it will come (higher V)

A quick question - all these miners like Riot continuing to expand aggressively even with the unsupportive BTC price, are any of these miners managing to use their increased scale to actually bring down their cost to mine BTC? Or are they simply gambling on BTC turning before they go out of business?

Well I don’t think you would because almost everyone is preparing to ‘sell the top’ in a way they weren’t preparing for it in 2020. Same with cannabis stocks and other sectors, they generally only run smoking hot once.

Again that’s not to say there isn’t big returns to be had, there is. $100k BTC would certainly see huge rises for the miners I just think we’ll ever see the sort of runaway forward p/e’s we saw in 2020.

I really don’t think we’ll see anything like the miner frenzy we saw in 2020, I think this industry is far too understood and far too saturated now. If the bull run comes sooner rather than later we are back to where we were with a capital fight to keep up which will make some of the miners *extremely* risk if any bull run fails to hit the heights of previous ones.

The last bull run was *the* opportunity of all opportunities and that’s why Mara is out in the lead and is likely to be the standout miner - I imagine it was more luck than excellent vision but it makes no difference, they are already positioned to take advantage.

Many of the others will struggle, the market knows that they will need to raise and will be aware of just how much each miner would dilute if they got the chance and that will temper any rises. For many miners investors will hold off until funding is sorted , which in itself, causes more dilution and leas capital.

That’s not to say they won’t all multibag, any miner in one piece during the next bull run is going to see a surge in share price but I just doubt it will be anything like last time. However the longer the bear market the greater the reward for this left in the game.

I like you AB but you’ve got to at least accept there’s a possibility you’re wrong rather than the market being wrong?

It’s as simple as Chaebol said imo too - in a sense the market is pricing in a long bear market therefore those that will definitely survive in one piece are given a premium right now, those that may be there to buy up distressed assets are given a further premium. Of course BTC bull run could start tomorrow and then it would flip on its head (and Corz would be number one miner, same with the second most beaten down etc )

There’s been plenty of times where Bitcoin has lagged Nasdaq, ie BYC starts falling once the US markets are closed - however the currency crises are certainly playing to the Bitcoin narrative so who knows, maybe this is about to be a turning point?

On a different subject, any reason Corz is hitting new 52 week lows whilst the rest of the miners (that I follow) are holding up considerably better? Could this be perhaps the market showing some rationality when it comes to bear market proof miners vs those in danger?

I’m away in a different time zone so the best I could really do so far is scan the rns and read the comments on here - no skirting around the elephant in the room, management have really f**** up. Unlike others I don’t necessarily think it’s for want of trying but whatever the reason we appear to be the only diagnostics co to fail so miserably at building some sort of momentum post covid - compare that to all the activity going on at biosynex, it’s light and day… even the likes of sourcebio that I like to compare to are beating us comfortably on the revenue front.

As I repeat ad infinitum all is not lost whilst the cash in the bank is so high and there’s potentially another cash injection to come with a dispute settlement but it’s certainly a case of waiting months before there’s any chance of some share price recovery.

Grrr one unhappy holder here.

DRB, away on holiday so haven’t been able to watch the presentation or go through the interims in detail on my small phone screen.

Does this £99m cash figure include £8m of the £11m owed from the LTIP? If so that’s quite positive at least…

Very much agree with that Faramog. I often see comments along those lines ‘if x, y & z is worth so much more why isn’t there any interested buyers?’

Beaten down share prices like are simply waiting on a catalyst to recover. Right now that catalyst is most likely to come in the form of sudden sharply rising V prices or a renegotiation with Orion that kicks the debt issue into the long grass.

What would be an even bigger catalyst is any sniff of a takeover approach, that would have the share price back over 10p in an instance and would suddenly make a ~15p offer far less inviting than what it might seem like today (4p to 15p).

I shan’t sit here and pretend I’m happy with those results, it’s disappointing, revenues have continued to drop off a cliff and there isn’t going to be any covid /q4 bounce.

But the fact remains novacyt has an unrivalled balance sheet in what is a very tumultuous period ahead for companies. Numerous small caps I’m following really are in trouble as funds dwindle with big raises needed without the equity to pull off such raises.

The main thing we have going here is time and financial stability but I really do think we deserve comprehensive answers to challenging questions today.

There was no deadcat bounce yesterday, it rose maybe 2% off the bottom. You were buying at 79.5 and selling at 80.5?

Your last post says you bought back in, yesterday, no mention of you selling the same day.

Byp you claimed to have bought back in yesterday and now you claim you sold out yesterday, very confusing narrative.

Drab results but semi expected - not much desire in this market to park cash anywhere else so a longer wait it is.

Fair enough AB. I’ve certainly not written it off or I wouldn’t be here and following so closely and I’m very confident there will be another bull run and hence there’s money to be made here.

Just think adoption is slower than you’d expect at this stage if Bitcoin is to be a success long term.