Member Info for HarChris

He didn't get paid in shares...

He did put £500k of the money he received from the first tranche into shares and is sitting on a loss of about £450k from that although we can't say for sure if he's sold his shares or not (or bought more) as he's no long part of the management team.

With the rest of the money he's recently received he won't be going to a food bank this winter.

Hexam I agree. Further than that it's extremely hard to see many situations in which Argo can get themselves out of this mess. I can't see how on earth they are going to get access to enough funds to compete when bitcoin turns, they've already got $40m ($60m payback) of loan notes to cough up in 2026, are creditors going to risk lending to Argo when all they'll have for collateral is aging machines and a poor track record of growth and profitability? That leaves dilution as the only option but if enough have already written argo off it's hard to imagine anything other than a pump to ~£1 and as big a dilution as possible at 80p / £75m raised which is nothing in this game at bull market prices.

Whilst the recent 'Strategic Actions to Strengthen the Balance Sheet' does guarantee survival for the time being it's also more or less the death knell for many long term holders hoping to get rich from this investment.

Complete hatchet job.

Hexam been saying it myself for a while, there are going to be those that simply survive this bear market and those that thrive and yesterday's news firmly puts Argo into the former camp rather than the latter. You could argue buying Argo shares now at 25p should give some sort of return if/when bitcoin turns but upside won't be worth the risks to most now.

There is an issue though for the sector as a whole as difficulty continues to reach new highs (expecting a 12% adjustment up next month) which means that entities are issuing more shares and building now in the hope of getting through this bear cycle and booming on the other side. Apart from the odd company there is now no HODL policy so more and more coins will need to be sold for expansion to take place which does add a lot of downward pressure on BTC - sure 900 coins a day (plus whatever they have left in treasury) isn't huge but day on day it does play its part.

I've done a little more research and I'm sure the most shaky miners financially will get hold of the necessary finances to survive another three months or so (or get a lowball raise away like argo) so I'm thinking now we will need to see this bear market extend into at least about April if we are to see any miners go to the ground and finally see a capitulation in difficulty after its walked up to 300EH+

If this theme continues (higher difficulty, bigger losses) then it really will get interesting and we'll be watching the bitcoin mining balloon expand and expand and expand until it suddenly pops causing chaos in its wake.

It's an odd one that's for sure. I'd have been looking to buy some here close to 20p but if this proposed subscription falls through they'll have signalled to the market that they are distressed and now without funding - it really would be desperation station time.

Chaebol, since Barclays listed Corz as 'best-in-class leverage play' just a few days ago the share price has fallen 22% whilst bitcoin has fallen just 2% - you couldn't make it up!

Whilst I've been highly critical today there's also a lot of rubbish being posted this evening.

The strategic investor whoever he or she is would be fully aware that the share price would drop to the price in which they will be entering, it's what happens. As far as they are concerned they are going to own 15% of argo for just £24m, buying on the open market would cost far more and as soon as the market was aware a buyer was in town the share price would have rallied. So if the strategic investor genuinely believes in the investment this is a pretty good deal for them, all IIs want to enter the fray in this fashion rather than buying on the open market if possible.

Whilst the news today is awful it was inevitable and like AB said, there are miners that will bite the dust long before argo does, possibly in as little as 6 - 9 months. I could see Corz for example being dragged into administration out of the blue.

Having said that I've not seen a subscription like this before, a situation like this where one investor is taking on the full amount with it not yet guaranteed - if it were to fall through Argo are in deep trouble.

Anyone listening to today's video must be seething to hear Peter describe the placing as a 'really exciting subscription agreement.' It's also noticeable how the focus has switched from thriving in a bear market to surviving.

I do think they will survive if the subscription goes through as planned but even that is a slight risk now and if it fails we're talking capitulation. And what are they going to be looking like if the bull market doesn't arrive til say Jan 2024? 2.9EH entity mining 150 coins a month, a few months away from the halving and mining 75 coins a month?

There is still risk to the likes of Corz, Clsk, Mara etc expanding in such a bleak economic environment and they may well run into trouble if the bear market does indeed continue for over 12 months but the risk is far more worthwhile currently than the risk/reward that Argo has to offer.

The ATM placings that other miners have in place are looking much more promising than this 20% dilution.

I was rather tempted to buy at 25p earlier but I'm not into trying my hand at scalping and it's hard to imagine any meaningful move to 30p for some time. It's one thing raising money for growth, it's another actively sidelining growth by selling the rigs you recently bought and having to place at a big discount to keep the lights on.

As has been said previously this industry is going to be an interesting one to follow over the coming 3-6 months, didn't expect Argo to be the first to show such weakness.

Well every other company I'm following that's done a placing recently has seen their share price fall below placing price. The best example is Afritin, check it out... very positive move from them, significant interest, raising to fund impressive growth plans not to keep the lights on and yet the placing is at 5p and the share price two weeks later was as low as 4.2p (now 4.35p).

This is not a cuddly market, especially with news like today.

What on earth are you thanking sellers for? The placing is at 27.6p, the share price is highly likely in this environment to drop a good 20% below that price.

Potential to make money from here but nobody invested should be smug about bringing their huge average down a tiny bit due to even further share price depreciation.

'A part of me hopes Bitcoin stays at these prices for the next 6 months,
Just so that Poorly managed Bitcoin Miners are flushed out of the system.'

Well of course, PW has gone from gambling that this bear market will be short and manageable to now long, drawn out and painful. If bitcoin were to turn in the next couple of months then they really will be looking like the worst miner by a long stretch. Any rise would be sold into by the new investor with 84 million shares to flog halting any move north and any chance of getting another raise away at three times the price.

They need the bear market to go on well into 2023, watch the other miners getting into similar difficulty/perhaps worse and then maybe they have a chance to compete.

I have said for months that if PW was bold and moved early raising as close to 40p as possible whilst interest was still there for bitcoin and miners then it could end up looking inspired - that would have been 30% higher but instead once again they've moved late and looking like coming out worst.

AB the thing you are ignoring is that raising money *is* what this sector is all about, it's the main factor that distinguishes the top miners from the lower tier. It doesn't matter if your management team are rocket scientists, it doesn't matter if your management team interact well with its shareholders or are prudent when it comes to executive pay etc what matters is when presented with an opportunity (like in 2021) that you absolutely take full advantage of it. And there often won't be a second chance.

Mara have been the better bet for a while because they have the finances to deliver whereas Argo hasn't, plain and simple. There still might be bigger winners like CLSK or Riot but i'd always back the miner with the best balance sheet vs the strongest management in this game.

Argo are not dead and buried but they will need an awful lot of luck if shareholders are ever going to see even the likes of £1.50 ever again. It sounds like this move sees them through the next 12 months, of course there are scenarios where argo might be able to deftly get a rise away in 2023 off the back of a bitcoin spike that keeps them in the game but it's hard to imagine anything other than them getting totally swallowed up by the big boys now.

Could they fight on as a second tier miner aiming to go in a different direction away from bitcoin mining? Sure, but the reality is that the chance of big returns from this investment are now far slimmer than they were and for most the shrunken rewards won't be worth the risk.

It's a lesson in the dangers of getting too pally with your shareholders and failing to take advantage of the opportunity in front of you. PW raises £26m with the market cap at almost £1B, yes he manages to arrange a placing following a 2500% share price spike and he goes with a 3% dilution! He later promises no more dilution and says argo are prepared for the bear market.

I think PW means well but his inexperience last year is probably going to be the downfall for Argo sadly.

AB shouldn't be a rush to move money around in this sector, Argo is merely the first to cave but I'm sure the rest of the sector will have a wobble as the news filters through and other miners go lower in the short term.

Clsk seems a safe bet but personally want it lower if i'm to sit on it through the bear market.

They were forced to sell 7200BTC in June at $23k to cover liabilities, they still have hundreds of millions of short term debt that I believe needs paying back in the next twelve months.

See how much BTC they mined today alone? 45.8 bitcoin! They'll be mining nearly 55 a day by the end of the year and yet they are on borrowed time. Very interesting miner to follow.

https://www.coindesk.com/business/2022/10/04/barclays-remains-positive-on-bitcoin-sees-miner-core-scientific-as-best-in-class-leverage-play/

For real? Biggest upside potentially but also the most likely to go under if the bear market extends to the back end of 2023, they're haemorrhaging cash at the moment and will likely see the HODL reduced to zero by Christmas.

Did someone mention we have a near 1000mtV stockpile???

Wouldn't it be great if we got a surprise RNS informing us the build was finished earlier than planned and commissioning will be going ahead before the year is out?!