Member Info for HarChris

AB are you seriously suggesting that the El Salvador story is a positive one? That El Salvador is going to be the vanguard that sees the rest of the world follow? Or do you think it’s more likely that the rest of the world looks at the experiment, at what is going on and steers well clear?

What we keep seeing is circumstances where an individual or entity attempts to take the lead with Bitcoin expecting the rest to follow… but they aren’t. This certainly was the case with El Salvador and even more so with Musk and Tesla. That was meant to trigger a tsunami of institutional investment; Apple, Facebook, many others tipped to put BTC on their balance sheet.

Fast forward a year and not only did they not follow suit, Tesla has gone and sold most of its holding.

Do you not think if we were still truly early those with money and influence would recognise that and start gobbling up as much as possible now, or are they too stupid?

In. Low expectation anyway so would have to be spectacularly bad to see a sell off from here. Chance to spring a surprise?

The last time DA spoke and traders dumped the market cap was still in line with cash, now it’s almost half.

Rubbish Stnz, it certainly is up for debate.

There is a major drive to increase adoption, advocates are trying hard to work with retail and institutions to increase awareness and interest but it’s a tough sell currently.

The truth is 99% either don’t care, don’t like Bitcoin or don’t trust it (consider it a ponzi). It doesn’t mean they won’t be won over but that should cause concern after 14 years.

With the explosion in publicity in 2020 it really should have kicked on, both price and adoption, and it hasn’t in any meaningful way (and price has fallen back 75%.

AB that’s not a good analogy. We live in a time of omniscience, we live in the digital internet age, we all have the potential to learn about and make a decision on Bitcoin and the average person still isn’t impressed, 13 years on.

There are a number of entities taking big risks with shareholders money and attempting to control as much of the network as possible (think Saylor, if he could he’d have 1.3m BTC vs 130k). If it all goes t*ys up they’ll file for bankruptcy and start up some new grift, it’s a risk they are willing to take. I mean who really believes that the majority invested in Bitcoin are doing it because they want a new system? Is Saylor going to be promoting Bitcoin 24/7 in five years time if Bitcoin is $10k and is merely a niche cryptocurrency at that stage? No.

Cryptocurrencies have a future and will be used in various ways but is Bitcoin all that revelatory now? If anything you could argue it’s already been superseded technology-wise before it’s even caught on, mass-adoption has stalled and radical events like with El Salvador have all petered out.

The story isn’t told yet but it’s not auspicious at this point in time.

Sure, I have a very specific take on how I think things will play out and up until now, I feel I’ve been more or less on the money.

So yes I think at some point there will be a melt up and I’m willing, when I think the time is right, to take a man educated punt and get in before it happens.

Just one theory, there are plenty others out there.

In the meantime I’ll be watching very closely to see if adoption is happening, if a use case is being carved out, if there’s a real desire for a non inflationary store of value etc.

So yeah I see the main driving forces as the halving, combined with a brighter macroeconomic economic picture and a coordinated rallying call from all the prominent crypto influencers… and probably one specific bit of news like Musk buying back in heavily or another entity like Apple.

Well unlike you my view hasn’t changed for two years, I didn’t see a use case for it then and I still don’t. I’ve called it beliefcoin previously and that’s how I see it, essentially a self-fulfilling prophesy. Previously there has been enough hype, enough enthusiasm, enough of a narrative to see 600% spikes and I think that will happen again at least one more time, probably around the next halving.

That next bull run will be make or break, either institutions continue buying/new institutions enter or they use it as their chance to get out in one piece. I won’t be guessing which of those outcomes occur, if I’ve time things right the profits will be good enough for me.

When these rallies occur the price of Bitcoin far outpaces hash rate/difficulty which creates conditions incredibly favourable to miners, profit outlooks that look sensational in the very near term and inevitable share price appreciation.

We have ten or so large miners however; Corz, Mara, Riot, bitfarms, hut8, CLSK, Hive, Argo etc and I believe that one or two will go the ground if BTC stays depressed into 2023. During that period I imagine the mining sector takes a very big sentiment hit and that’ll be the time to buy.

I don’t think any genuine holder called a leak or an incoming rns on Monday, we just hoped it was some buying interest ready for Thursday.

Turns out yes it was a pump which has coincided with wider market chaos once again.

It sucks but it is what it is.

I’m no huge fan of BTC and am personally doubtful it will be around in any meaningful way in ten years. I do think though they’ll be at least one more bull market, with another big pump to $75k+ in, say, 2024.

Get the right miner and at the right price in time for that and there’s a 10+ bagger to be had.

Too much fear in the market and real threats to some of these miners in the coming months.

Pulled my Hut8 and CLSK buy orders this morning. Work out which miners are in the strongest position, wait til one goes to the ground and buy whilst the panic ensues.

For an AIM stock novacyt will have a lot of followers. I imagine it’s a combination of it falling so low and buying pressure first thing yesterday. Many ears suddenly get pr*cked and the herd start taking a punt in case there’s an rns about to land and someone’s got wind.

Later in the day it fizzles out a little and when no rns lands the following morning many of those traders dump with a small profit or even a small loss.

Annoying but one of these days hopefully there will be substance behind it and we’ll see consecutive 30% + days.

Hoped for a steady rise into Thursday, still time for that.

Whilst it’s true that the cash is not currently being viewed as all that transformational for novacyt the moment there’s any sign that management have got their hands firmly on the reins then that cash is almost instantly seen as a war chest and the share price runs.

It doesn’t have to be tens of millions of profit produced, it doesn’t have to be huge contracts won, but something as simple as revenue beginning to increase and a period with back to back rns’ such as a small contract win and an acquisition and suddenly the cash figure is seeing a multiplier of 3 or 4 times applied.

This made me think of the song ‘There is a light and it never goes out’ by the Smiths except ‘there is a gap and it always gets closed’

You really believe there is no relationship between cash and mcap? None at all? What about debt and mcap? What about net assets vs mcap?

You don’t think a business that has no financial constraints, no funding issues and big M&A potential is likely to derive a higher mcap than one with financial constraints, with near term financing needs and no ability to partake in mergers and acquisitions?

Fair enough if that’s what you think.

Yes it is an opinion but it’s one with plenty of rationale, seeing as the market cap dropped to nearly half net cash. That really doesn’t happen often and not unless a company is absolutely burning through that cash.

Thursday is important as we get an updated cash figure too, it is hard to argue, however poor recent performance has been, that novacyt should be valued just five times what they were pre covid (£1.5m cash £7m debt).

I thought pump and dumps were orchestrated on Twitter and other forums? I’ve not seen anything along those lines today.

Imagine there was a lot of buying first thing and then the trading herd followed in the hope of some sort of leak. Doesn’t mean the buyer’s finished, they’re probably just pausing til it comes back down to a level they are happy buying at.

Huey it’s quite simple, the fall was excessive taking advantage of yet more silence during broader market chaos. Thursday has the potential to show some green shoots, less to do with company performance and more to do with managerial performance (ie David and the investor meeting).

It’s simply rising to a slightly higher base before deciding which direction it is to be Thursday.

Thanks @saintsmith. I expect at least enough momentum to kick this on again by Thursday and then it will depend on what DA has to offer.

At least the 50p trolls will be quiet for a few days. Where’s PI100?

My post last week:

‘This price action is typical of what happens when you signpost news for two weeks time - the first week it dumps as there’s very little chance of being caught out by a surprise rns and the second it steadily rises into the news.’

Didn’t quite expect this reaction today though!

It never plays out how you think it will, this won’t be £2-£3 without something having happened that gives hope that novacyt are back on track - with sentiment having turned and serious money in the bank and hope of M&A activity on the horizon plenty who say they’d sell out will be tempted to stick it out and wait for higher.

Winning the dispute is far more than simply boosting the cash figure and the net asset value above £200m, it removes the massive dark cloud hanging over the company, it removes the question marks over the way novacyt behaved during the peak of the pandemic, it shuts down those calling the company’s integrity into question.

I focus on the net asset metric, return to a profit making entity (however small) and it’s hard to argue for a share price less than £2.25 (200% higher).

Come out on top with the dispute too and we should be looking at at least double that.