The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
I'll be honest and say I very, very nearly bought shares today during the meeting. Not because I believed a word they were saying but because the talk was strong enough to likely convince some that this is a bargain and to therefore see a share price rise.
If you ask me their tactic is a straight forward fake it til you make it, aiming to boost the share price through this quarter and then raising as much as possible through a placing. That will give them one last bite at the cherry to make a success of this.
B2 we don't know if there could have been some sort of settlement early on with neither party taking responsibility, that's my guess anyway, yet Novacyt appear to have played hardball from the start refuting the claims outright then suing right back.
Let's be honest, there's a huge power imbalance here. The DHSC could always see it through to at least this point in time whereas ncyt constantly had choices to make, hold their ground and take the significant hit to share price and the complications that can come with that or back down and concede.
So the fact that we're even at this stage proves that Novacyt truly expects to win whereas for the DHSC most likely it's simply that they haven't had any incentive to back down earlier...that doesn't mean they see it all the way through to trial in June though.
So DHSC how does that line up with this:
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/NCYT/approval-of-exsig8482-covid-19-direct-test-in-the-uk-bvmwqxzelcoyade.html
Certainly an interesting IMC.
If you were to believe Greg's words then this is the mother of all opportunities but the facts don't back it up. He also went on to answer my question by saying that they can't speak for the analysts guidance yet previously they were RNS'ing Hardman Research broker notes to the market and encouraging us all to read. I find his comments on how happy they are with the current growth trajectory to be downright disingenuous.
Greg continually claimed Shield can reach cash flow break even in H2 2025 without further funding, I call BS. I will watch with interest and will happily eat my hat, feathers and all, if proved wrong.
Optrade last post from me as I don't want to upset you.
...But that couldn't be further from the truth. They did have sales momentum but it's totally lost. QoQ growth rate has dropped from 60% to 1% - that wouldn't be so bad if they were maturing at over 100k prescriptions per quarter but they are still only where they were meant to be last year before the full sales team had settled in.
The second key metric, net selling price, has also gone backwards this quarter too.
The only thing going for you is that the value is low enough already that it might not crash further, but there are now serious question marks around this management team and tbh, possibly even the product which is failing to gain traction.
GL, I hope this works out for you!
Are you joking?
Business Update and Audited Results April 2023 - Funded to support operations through to cash flow break-even by end of 2024
28th September 2023 - cash raise and new $20m debt facility
They are funded to cash flow break even if they totally reverse the course they are on, but that's completely unrealistic now. How they will go from 1% QoQ growth to nigh on 50% needs to be clearly explained by Greg later or it's simply bollo***
27750 was the number of prescriptions they reported in Q3 of last year, before then downgrading it in q4.
So Shield are now at the level we all thought they were six months ago. Really poor. Was looking to buy in if there were any green shoots but it's tough to see where they go from here?
You might just be being naive but Shield is 'not doing a lot better than many other Aim companies' , at this stage revenue is irrelevant, they were on a path to profitability and now they are MILES away - they are burning cash like nobody's business and have a mcap of £10m to raise against vs a £100m mcap last year.
The debt facility gives them another quarter to show some significant improvement but if nothing seen them it must surely be curtains.
The real increase is 1% on Q4 2023 - for a company supposedly targeting 330k prescriptions in 2024 28.8k is a rubbish number and provides conclusive proof that growth is no longer on track.
''Need to see 45k scripts for 1st qtr 24 to get this back on track along with a reduction in monthly costs.
It will be tight.''
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Traxpern, happy with 28800? Hardman research had 65k scripts at this stage.