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I can't say 100% that Shield will fail to reach a cash flow positive position without additional resources but Greg has far from explained how that can be achieved. For it to happen they need to be on a completely different trajectory and so it can only happen if he has an ace up his sleeve which he hasn't yet shared with the market (what's the logic to that?') or fortunes change dramatically for some other reason.
Again, technically possibly but highly, highly unlikely.
You're using IMC so go to the interims presentation from less than seven months ago...
Look at slide 18, estimated annual prescriptions for 2024 - 'greater than 350,000'. Now apparently that was only a broker target and not their own and they've disassociated themselves from it but it was in their own slides not long ago!!
Page 22, 'achieve cash flow positive by YE 2024, revenues expected to exceed $120m by 2025' - that $120m requires around 500,000 prescriptions at ~$220 net Rx + milestone payments/royalties. In other words by next Q1 they'd need prescriptions to rise from 28000 to over 100,000 and still growing QoQ!
You can believe their word all you like but the last target for reaching cash flow positive was pushed back months after it was made - is it that likely to suddenly be achieved now when the numbers are so, so far off what they were estimating not long ago?
As for confirming they don't need an equity raise how about the presentation in April 2023 where in one slide it clearly states 'Fully funded to support operations through to cash flow break-even by YE 2024' as well as well as the same answer in response to the question in the Q&A of 'is the cash sufficient to get us to cash flow break even?' ... five months later an equity raise.
And don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying a placing is coming next week, it isn’t. I strongly believe plan A is continue as if things are much better than they actually are, keep pushing for improvement in prescriptions written and net selling price and if all comes good great, if not leverage the expectation by placing alongside the next quarterly results at, ideally, 2p for £15m worth. Heavy dilution but one more chance at the last chance saloon.
But if they are honest about the likely scenario to play out that 2p/£15m is impossible and off the table and there won’t be another chance - see the incentive for them to deploy deception ?
You’re missing the point either intentionally or unintentionally.
When Greg says they ‘can’ reach cash flow positive with the resources they have he is technically correct, it is possible, as are most things in life. Is it realistic though? The answer to that is without doubt no as is well explained by a few other posters.
They are way, way off the targets set by the brokers which lays out the path to profitability. Previously when on track Greg and the management pointed us to the broker notes time and time again yet now they have totally come off that path he can’t speak for the broker targets? Isn’t that inconsistent?
The focus on Texas was evidently an attempt to mask the real situation but it’s been debunked by a poster on here. Yes Texas lost them some scripts but it explains only a fraction of the missed (broker) targets, it doesn’t fill the gap that is needed in any way whatsoever.
So yes they ‘can’ reach cash flow positive by h2 2025 with the resources they have but this sales team that’s been fully trained and at max capacity for the past six months need to suddenly start seeing ~30% increases quarter on quarter all the way to mid 2025. Come on, do you really believe that is going to happen or is it more likely Greg is hoping to raise off the back of this language?
My play has always been that too but having bought so many between 40p and 50p I will take 25% off the table around the 90p mark if it gets there before the dispute is settled.
Just a bit of sensible risk management and not a reflection on what I think the outcome will be.
CS I was thinking the same thing a few days back when that rns came out, there was a sense that that was the build up and ‘sell the news’ moment.
Still, as long as the SP treads water next rather than retracing back to 60p we’ll see another leg up again in May.
No PI has popped on here to tell us this is crashing at 45p, at 50p, at 55p, at 60p and now at 70p.
I promise you if this is 150p in a year and it goes back to 140p pi100 will be on here saying ‘typical ncyt pump and dump’ and someone like you will say ‘got to hand it to him’
There’s no logic or thought to any post, it’s just childish moaning and desire to see this fall.
Greg had two choices the other day - be brutally honest about the chances of being cash positive by H2 2025 without further resources and see the share price implode / remain at 1p max or go with the narrative that yes they have enough capital to reach cash positivity by H2 2025 and hope the market buys it.
The latter is, technically, true. They do have enough but what wasn't shared was the monumental improvement that would need to be seen quarter on quarter from here to mid 2025 i both prescriptions written and net price. I think the chances are probably 1% but as long as it's feasible he has a get out clause by saying that was the hope but events haven't unfolded the way we hoped and so here's the placing - at some point later in 2024.
Yeah and due to a lack of proper explanation as to why direct costs to mine bitcoin in q1 jumped to $31k we can't even be sure if Argo would be generating much cash at $150k post halving!
After the Mirabel sale Argo were left with $12.4m cash end of March, my guess is from now that they are going to be losing $2m a month so that's six months of runway - placing Sept latest or lights out. And if a placing comes there is still the end of the hosting agreement a few months later.
Only BTC at $150k and the illusion that Argo are generating tons of cash and therefore a massive spike in SP and then a humongous raise off the back of that leaves Argo in operation this time next year - wildly unlikely.
Unsurprisingly high as shown by the Core Scientific daily numbers which spiked pre halving and stayed elevated til the last few days of April.
May's Coins minted will drop by ~45% as things stand (difficulty likely adjusted down next week) but revenue possibly more as bitcoin price has retraced - $3.4m revs as things stand, 55 coins mined.
The broker notes have Shield break even at about $90m revs. Forecast for 2024 was previously $62m revs which translates as ~330k prescriptions at ~$175 net price Rx ++ minimal royalty payments), to reach cash flow break even in 2025 without additional resources that'll need to be achieved at a minimum - are you confident of it?
It's a tricky situation GDR find themselves in and they are not alone. From where I'm standing progress is without doubt being seen now but the sort of cash GDR were previously raising isn't feasible now with where the share price is without dilution to oblivion (£8m raised 2020, £7.1m raised in 2021 etc).
I notice the going concern statement proposes debt as an option but are GDR in anyway close to reaching cash generation, as if not it'll be hard to find willing debtors?
In all seriousness good luck. As someone confident of what's going on here I hate seeing Greg lie through his teeth like this once again but it is what it is, better and more meaningful activist fights to be had elsewhere.
Just be wary that's all that Greg has said the same things before and now the numbers simply don't add up - I watched the IMC hoping for an explanation but all they did was focus on Texas' lower than expected numbers but even with that coming back in line the totals for 2024 will not be enough and more funding will be needed.