Member Info for happysparrow

Correction: $50m debt facility probably through Socar Trading (not Vitol)?
Zengas post of 16/10/18 (thanks Zengas):
Socar Trading is supposed to be the Geneva based oil trading firm that is behind Savps $50m funding reported by AEI.

Socor Trading is a wholly owned subsidiary of the Azerbaijani National Oil Company Socar.

According to AEI Turab Musayev is an executive of Socar Trading and also a shareholder via his private equity firm Luzon Investments.

Turabs brother Taleh also holds shares in Savp via his firms Aralia Capital and Peleng Holding. His share has reportedly fallen from 9% to around 2.5% but what the AEI article does not say is if this was as a result of selling or if it was due to the subsequent increase in shares from first listing in 2014 to the most recent shares issues that may have diluted his firms holding.

Thanks, StarRage - very helpful.

Thanks, Agadem:
Initial thoughts are:
Clearly the update on Aloaji power station and new gas customers (and gas-pricing) is now overdue.
Likewise, a comprehensive Niger update (perhaps including Farm-out progress).
The Riverfort/Yorkville loan question too needs answering - with most shareholders preferring not to dilute. To this could be added 'Why don't we enlarge the Oragroup facility (E11.4m) which has much better terms?' Too, you could ask is there any intention to use the Vitol $50m debt facility (offputting utilisation fees).
It would also be helpful to know more about the bondholder selling down at the beginning of the year - and who bought the shares (and where are the TR1s?).
And too, what is the latest short positions [Mount Teide sometimes posts on this on ADVFN].
And any more thoughts on a share buyback scheme (preferable to a dividend?) soon?
An update (probably too early - so when likely?) on Nigeria drilling plans for H12020, and field expansion plans, licence rounds, tie-ins by others to Accugas pipeline, etcetera, would always be welcome.
Again, thank you for all your efforts on this.

Regards the Riverfort/Yorkville loan (RNS 18/10/19) I had a couple of thoughts on this:
1) In anticipation of conversion Riverfort/Yorkville seem to have an incentive to perhaps forward-sell 20% of the $5m shares so as to suppress the price for the remaining 80% conversion. Despite recent transactions to take out a major bondholder at 20 p (where is the TR1?) there still seems to be a seller in the market - and this could be Riverfort/Yorkville?
2) Disgruntled shareholders have clearly expressed that we do not want more dilution (Agadem's post yesterday clearly shows the effect of dilution - with 3.55 times as many shares now from June 2017.) By paying back $5 million before maturity, not only does this stop further dilution, but it gives Riverfort/Yorkville the cash to buy SAVP shares in the market if they really want them (and to cover any forward-selling?). In effect, this works like a 'doubled-up' buyback. Too, as other have pointed out, it sends the right signal to the market - that the BoD is now intent on raising the SP to reflect true value (which may well help to prevent a low-ball takeout, something that many shareholders might consider given the poor performance of the SP to date).

https://thenationonlineng.net/how-to-bridge-electricity-deficit/

Q- yes, all will help - but it all depends on ambition - and I think this has become a much bigger business suddenly - and thus may have to adopt new plans - and possibly a different approach to funding. In the long term, all for the best.

Putting a bit of a short-term downer on that, Shellguy, I'd recommend listening to Paul Baay on proactive investors (27/03/19) - 5.25 mins onwards:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s6Hs6Ty8N3M
A clear statement that the core business is development wells and base production, and that they hope to do 10 or 11 development wells ON TOP OF exploration.
Note too, Spangle's comment on ADVFN that Paul 'made exactly the same denial 12 months ago, then did a discounted fund raise.'
So no immediate cash needed to 'test the Cascadura well and tie-in Coho' - but where is the cash to do two further exploration wells (Chinook and Royston) and ten development wells in 2020?
I'm holding off from investing heavily here until longer term funding options and their level of ambition after these 'above expectation' discoveries becomes clearer. New strategic plans possibly needed now. Perhaps a farm-out (Shell) would resolve this?

My recollection is that SAVP are often fond of a Friday RNS, Bluebelly.
Fingers crossed for tomorrow.

Thanks, InvestorTrev - a great help, and puts a different perspective on this - particularly the VAT rebate. Too, he expects to get production from Cascadura in 3 or 4 months (after testing) - and could probably arrange a loan on this oil production (RBL).

Cash at 30/09/19 is $3.4m
Credit facility is Can$ 15m (£8.6m)
Production 1871 bopd (netback $27 bbl)
Paul in interview stated cost of COHO well circa $3m; Cascadura $4m.
Completion and testing of Cascudura Q12020.
Chinook site preparation underway.

A placing must be imminent, yes?
Anyone's thoughts please on this deeply unpopular subject.

At 8.25 secs in AK talks of upcoming newsfow. Although rambling, he seems to mentally list out things chronologically. If correct, then the introduction of a new partner will be soon. Too, there was no qualification of a 'maybe' about this - it came across as definite. Thus, at a guess, I'm expecting this farm-out in January.
This is the quote: '...new gas contracts, our new plans for Niger, introducing a partner, um, commencing first oil in Niger, recommencing drilling activity; there will be other opportunities in Nigeria that come our way...'

Not been mentioned much, but I liked: 'we have seen a reduction in production costs at the Nigerian Assets of c.18% over the 2016-19 period.'
This tells me that they have a firm grip on the business, and already are running a tight ship - augurs well for the future. Good management.

Thanks, Zengas. Very helpful.

Some other points:
- Gross 2019 year-to-date production from the Nigerian Assets of 17.3 kboepd (+33% year-on-year);
- we have seen a reduction in production costs at the Nigerian Assets of c.18% over the 2016-19 period.
- Production is anticipated to increase significantly in 1H 2020 after the addition of the Alaoji power station as a new Accugas customer (following completion of the relevant technical and commercial workstreams). Accugas also expects to be able to announce additional new customers over the course of the coming months
- 2020 Forward Plans: As part of the ongoing gas field development plan at Uquo, in 2020 Savannah plans to drill and complete a gas production well, recomplete an oil well as a gas producer and to work over one of the current gas production wells at an estimated cost of US$34.5m. The well operations are expected to commence in H1 2020 and in addition c. US$7m is intended to be invested by Accugas for continued facility upgrades.
- Net debt outstanding (for Savannah) $409.1 m. 2019 guidance for cash collections from the Nigerian Assets of c. US$190m, leading to a US$40m reduction (2019 vs. 2018) in total third-party debt outstanding at the Nigerian Assets.
- Nigerian Assets gross NPV10, on a maintenance adjusted take-or-pay basis, of US$1.2bn assessed by CGG (NPV10 net to Savannah of US$957m);
- Net asset-level free cash flow generation, on a maintenance adjusted take-or-pay basis, by the Nigerian Assets assessed by CGG as an average of c.US$130m p.a. (2020 - 2023);
- a forecast YE'19 cash position within the Nigerian Assets of a minimum of US$15m
- Forecast 2020 capital expenditure at the Nigerian Assets of c.$41.5m.

WilkCoutts - is this the report you are referring to of 14th November (cost $1250)?
Guyana heavy oil update weighs down Tullow:
https://www.woodmac.com/reports/upstream-oil-and-gas-guyana-heavy-oil-update-weighs-down-tullow-360400/

Good find, O&W. AK said there were many heading towards SAVP's door since the Niger-Benin pipeline announcement.

But, too, Boru might be interested in taking an interest in our Nigeria business?
'Boru Energy’s investment goal will be to assemble a portfolio of primarily non-operated interests in oil & gas production assets.....Carlyle International Energy Partners, L.P. (CIEP), a fund that focuses on oil and gas exploration & production, midstream, and refining and marketing in Europe, Africa, Latin America and Asia. CIEP first invested in Africa in 2017, when Carlyle-backed Assala Energy acquired Shell’s onshore assets in Gabon.'

More on this deal:
https://www.bizjournals.com/houston/news/2017/03/27/shell-sells-gabon-assets-for-587m.html

See RNS of 28th Sept 2018.
Extract:
Across Savannah's Niger PSCs, 120 potential drilling targets have now been
identified. The majority of these are primarily targeting the Sokor Alternances,
with additional prospectivity in the Upper Sokor and the Yogou, however
Savannah has also identified four Yogou-only targets on the Dinga Ridge part of
the R2 portion of the R1/R2 PSC Area.
The Upper Sokor and Yogou plays are under-explored in the ARB and provide
significant up-side to the traditional Sokor Alternances play....... (note: there is further explanation).

And this is from the RNS of 5th Oct 201*
Extract:
....maiden exploration campaign following the completion of operations at Zomo-1.
A new drilling campaign is expected to commence in early 2019, initially
focusing on the R3 East and R3 Central areas, before likely proceeding to the R1
Dinga 3D area and, potentially, the R2 Dinga Ridge area.....

Thanks, Zengas (and O&W) for keeping my feet on the ground - I think what is being emphasised is that we would not get a fair price (i.e. of the level I imagined - think Cove) now for the portfolio without drilling (and de-risking) these low-hanging fruit much further (20-30 wells?), and without production at perhaps 5,000 bopd or more (?), before selling up - although we will want to sell up at some stage.
I'd still like to dream we can though.
Struggling to find an explanation, like us all, why they haven't got on with drilling these easy targets rapidly, in numbers; and why their next target is The Dinga Ridge gas? plays - and this seems to provide an explanation.

O&W - that, of course, would depend on the price negotiated. But if all the low hanging fruit are pretty much the same in type and risk, with at least an 80%+ COS - and all similar to what the Chinese have done - then it seems a fair value can be arrived at to sell the whole lot to one, (or even two), major(s). If we can do it now, why not?

Thanks, Agadem - that's how I see this panning out now. Good to know I'm not entirely mad in thinking this.

Regards gas found at the Dinga Ridge - is this the long term plan?:
https://guardian.ng/news/ajaokuta-kaduna-kano-gas-pipeline-construction-to-commence-soon-buhari/
Buhari noted that the viability of extending the gas pipeline to North Africa was also under consideration.
-
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trans-Saharan_gas_pipeline