Member Info for happysparrow

From that report:
'The partners are evaluating the results after the drilling of the Tullow Jethro #1 and Joe #1 wells.
These wells were drilled by the Stena Forth Drillship (Figure 3-7). The data collected is currently
still being analyzed and the results of the analyses will play a large part in the final plan of action
and budget for 2020 and 2021. The current proposal includes further evaluation of the Jethro
reservoir by sidetracking the current well or drilling a new delineation well and the drilling of a
new well that would test the Cretaceous on the block. These options will be reviewed by the
partners in the first quarter of 2020 and will be subject to the approval of the operating committee.'

Thanks, P.

Good posts, Kalan and Zengas -at last some solid news, and, as you said yesterday/today, patience is the key here - though mine has run somewhat short lately (I must remember to take my BP pills more often). Short term, I think oilbagger is correct, that the price is being held back by the possible $5m loan conversion - we will see - but that should resolve itself next week. And then a steady march upwards to 20-22p until we get the next solid news - Niger update, farm-out - hopefully sometime February.
GLA

https://fipl-ng.com/plants/#afam-plant

https://fipl-ng.com/

https://www.sahara-group.com/

Top post, Earache - thanks.
Regards 'how much longer can BOTAS stay so far outside the European pricing structure whilst at the same time seeking accession to the EU? A long time I hope!' - I think that, short of a revolution, there is little chance of Turkey joining the EU in the next 20/30 years (Morocco and Israel probably have a better chance); so economic alignment for Turkish accession is not an issue.
A couple of recent articles to support this opinion:
http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/ankara-urges-eu-to-reconsider-its-enlargement-policy-151470
https://carnegieeurope.eu/2020/01/29/how-far-can-turkey-challenge-nato-and-eu-in-2020-pub-80912

Our gas will supply an insulated high gas price large Turkish domestic market. However, we may not be able to export to Europe given the politics surrounding Cyprus drilling and Israel - Greece gas pipeline. ( see Carnegie article above, and https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2019/11/11/turkey-s-illegal-drilling-activities-in-the-eastern-mediterranean-council-adopts-framework-for-sanctions/ ).

But I'm not too worried by that - the Turkish home market should take all our gas (95% of gas used is currently imported? I recall) and is higher priced.

From the article: '... Either way, the company is well positioned to install a working capital facility once the new, likely revised CPR report is out in Q1 2020...'
Are we expecting a new CPR? I've not read this elsewhere.
And what other newsflow are we expecting? All I can see is Finals + dividend at end of April? Am I missing something here?
Would be grateful for further information.
HS

And this is the gas price in Morocco (from today's SDX RNS):
'... With the planned follow on development well, we now have the potential to increase our total reserves in Morocco to approximately three to four years of customer demand with our gas being sold under five and ten year fixed priced contracts at an average gas price of circa US$11/mcf.'
An example of gas prices being country specific, and inelastic.

Thanks, Laptop - interesting article.
For balance, here's another:
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Gas-Prices/Has-Natural-Gas-Hit-Rock-Bottom.htm

Can anyone explain the implications:
Gas prices have declined dramatically in most parts of the world - but, as the article states, pricing is somewhat inelastic. So will Turkey's price fall? Or will world prices's, with the fall now overdone, start to rise again? And how do they inter-relate?
No doubt our economist-friends at Equinor will be running their pencils over this in the next few weeks.

that was... from friday 17th jan

Too, as an afterthought, if they did go for the equity version, then the 7-day VWAP from Friday will probably be done by tomorrow/Wednesday and I would expect a conversion notice to be given then (and then SAVP will have to issue an RNS), and then this squeeze on the SP to stop, and to rise soon after from that, to 20-22p.
[I would then put the decision to go for equity conversion, rather than cash repayment, down to a bad decision worthy of third-rate management rather than any real shortage of cash.]

Yes, Miti, this was my concern - seemed total madness not to pay off the loan rather than dilute - and the the company then gets all secretive on us about what they've done with the loan.
With lack of information from SAVP I've been left investing in the dark - not a situation I would willingly buy into.
Frankly, though, if they were not cash rich at this stage then it would seem tantamount to fraud.
I trust that is not so. So I remain invested. But not as one happy happy shareholder.

Miti - thanks for that. I'd agree that the dilution and overhang from the bondholders has been the central problem, (and the lack of promised newsflow) - but the 7E deal was meant to have ended the previous cash shortage - the $75m on deal completion, the paying down of $40m debt, the $10m monthly FCF projection, - I would have thought it was a fair assumption that we were cash rich at this stage; perhaps even considering a large acquisition.
Am I completely wrong on this?

Miti - I've just read back through your posts - very prescient. Well done.
But how did you know that AK would not deliver on his promised newsflow to this extent?
And will you now be buying back in in quantity?

Thought I'd repost Porschefund's excellent recording of the last Conf. Call (the one SAVP IR did not want on their website -we can now see why. ) Questions from 38 mins in. Thanks, P :
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1UILjwmw24DYEf64Bb3P8Ik-XcGB99krp/view

No, I did not imagine there would be a new gas customer announced before xmas; that there would be an update on Niger in the coming month (Dec 2019); that we would have a new Nigeria and Niger CPR by now.
And what of 1st oil and a partner in Niger in H12020; and Aloji power station linked-in?

My, those were the days.

Yes, agree Kalan - I'm totally in empathy with what Zeusfuria has to say, but for me this is no time to sell up. However, if the share is still sub 20p in 3 months time....

I'm very much in empathy with that, Zeusfuria. Good luck.

Thanks, Interzone.
It's not the rate of interest, but the dilution, and handing the lender the decision as to when to hit us hard at the SP's weakest point, that is of concern. Too, it would be misleading to RNS the renewal of the Oragroup facility if it had largely been used up at that time, unless they also mentioned it had largely been used up - otherwise it gives the false impression that there is a new £10m available for the company when that is not the case.

Thanks, Shininglight. - (I've just read your post). I hope you pointed out that actions that result in a 10% downward movement in the SP, and an action that has resulted in their IR receiving many emails from concerned shareholders is something that the company should fully explain, whether by RNS or other means. {note too, the company may still issue equity for this loan - we have not been told either way as yet].