Member Info for happysparrow

The trades you see between 9.30 and 9.50 at 69p are buys (marked as sells). The MMs had it at 70p to sell and 69p to buy in order to give the impression that many were selling when, in fact, they were buying.

Groover, I'm only part way through research here (but have taken a stake at these prices as they will not be here with us for much longer, imo). In part answer to your question I came across the 'valuation gap'. See page 20 of latest presentation 'Jadestone trades at a deep discount to its NAV'.
From a recent Numis note on SAVP '...We believe the valuation gap will close as Savannah continues to deliver cash flows, gas sales agreements and progress the Niger EPS through 2020. Savannah trades at 0.44x our discovered resource NAV, a significant discount to the sector on 0.7x'
If we apply this same metric to JSE I calculate the NAV of $1200m discounted by the factor of 0.7 = $840. This works out at about 140p per share.
So, with the valuation gap closing to the average discount for the sector over the next year or two ( due to steady growth, increased incoming cash flows, debt paid down, dividend, etc), this should make the current SP 140p on just this single aspect alone.
Of course, there is a lot more going for it.
Good luck.

Wrong - again!
2 large sells @ 70p

Large sells @ 71p. My bet (£2k @ 71.26p) is that's it. You would not sell in more than one go, otherwise you lower your selling price for the following sale. If the market makers took this on at 71p, then they too will not want to let people buy below 71p. Only if other sellers push this down further will you be able to buy below 71p. That's my guesswork. But often wrong.

Close: C$0.445 x 0.58 = 25.8p
Moving up nicely.

'Jersey Oil & Gas (JOG) has been weak since its announcement that it had acquired Equinor (EQNR)'s 70% interest in Licence P2170. Part of the reason for that was disclosed with last week's announcement that Richard Griffiths has been selling. JOG are now looking for farm-in partners, but with Equinor out, how many will want in? Equinor also notified Valeura Energy (VLU) that it intends to discontinue participation in their deep gas appraisal programme. VLU has $37 million working capital and a £21 million market cap. People might think that offers value, but what it actually indicates is the market expects management to lose the money.

Hurricane Energy (HUR)’s share price decline continued as it announced another operational update. I was cautioning about HUR towards the end of last year when it was in the low 30s. It’s now down to 17p. The most money that’s lost in the market is by those who think they’re buying bargains. Most exposed to this are those who think they understand fundamental analysis, but don't. Like VLU above, there’s always a reason why what appears to some to be a "bargain" may not in fact be mis-priced. '

We shall see. Management here is better than most + good shareholder comms.
I think it's not the management but Turkey that worries 'the market.' (but there are many places more volatile where O&G is successful ).

From Stockhouse:

Canaccord Feb 4
Valeura Energy Inc. | Equinor discontinues involvement in the Basin Centre Gas
Play in Turkey
VLU- LSE 29p | Speculative Buy | Target Price: 200p
Charlie Sharp| Analyst | Canaccord Genuity Ltd (UK) | csharp@cgf.com | 44.20.7523.4651
Disappointing but not very surprising after the recent pause in operations following a
mixed bag of testing results in 2019. Equinor had satisfied its carry conditions but the
details of Equinor’s exit remain to be finalised. Meanwhile, Valeura has YE19 cash of
US$37m (C$47m) and no debt, so the stock is trading below net cash. Valeura is still
working on its 2020 work programme – details alter in Q1 – and says its will “deploy
in a judicious manner” and expects to continue the gas play appraisal programme as
well as build the conventional gas story

Helpful.

Thanks, MT

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/prices-and-markets/stocks/exchange-insight/trade-data.html?page=0&pageOffBook=0&fourWayKey=GB00BP41S218GBGBXAMSM&formName=frmRow&upToRow=15

These are marked as SI trades.
A Systematic Internaliser (SI) is an investment firm which, on an organised, frequent systematic and substantial basis deals on own account when executing client orders outside a regulated market, an MTF or an OTF without operating a multilateral system.

Most of the large trades we've seen in the last week or so have been marked SINT.

I am still none the wiser though, oilbagger.

Let's hope AK gets out of this short stranglehold by delivering an agile and powerful 'Good News RNS' move in the next few days.

This would be similar to a 'ring' in an auction room.
Surely such concert parties are illegal?

MT - is it possible for Riverfort to get around the reporting restrictions through acting in alliance with the hedge funds ? - i.e. 'if you short on our behalf to drive the price down, then we will lend you the promised shares'. (I'm not sure of the mechanics of this, but it seems possible - though possibly illegal?)

Canada opened at about 21p - let's see where it goes from here. Well oversold imo

Interesting post on Stockhouse BB (TSX VLE):

JV or Acquisition of Condor’s producing assets in Turkey
Condor ( CPI ) has producing assets in the Thrace Basin.

It’s been obvious for several months that it has been waiting for this decision to be made before finalizing its contract preparations to drill the Yakamoz 1 side track well and subsequent appraisal well in Turkey

The Yakamoz 1 side-track well and a subsequent appraisal well in Thrace are shallow gas .
Yak 1 missed the main target, hence the sidetrack.
Costs are expected to be about $2 million and the target has substantial gas potential.

Or indeed, as Condor has been focussed on its Asian assets, and selling its other assets, it might sell its producing assets in Turkey to Valeura

Small trade today - sold 6000 @ 26.1p
Bought back 6000 @ 25p (Note: reported as sell)
Impressed by the way this has held up - was expecting far worse. - Clearly the value in this company is recognised by many.
Canada at 2.30pm will be the litmus test.
But now expecting this to be back to 30p this month (or perhaps when future plans are announced in Q1).

Decision could have gone either way (Equinor have divested from many of their assets in the last 5 years) - but just my luck.
Yesterday it fell to the lowest point of 26p a share (inside knowledge?)
However cash is at US$37m (equivalent of 32.9p per share), no debt and income is strong (about C$3m a quarter) with high gas price in Turkey, so good existing business besides the deep play assets.
I expect the market makers to hit this hard today (and with the poor market generally). They'l probably push for sub 20p. But this will be back to 30p level in a month or so imo.
This is gas, not oil, and the Turks are willing to pay a high price for an import substitute (they import 99% of gas) they desperately need.

In French:
http://news.aniamey.com/h/95894.html

Colin Kinley: '...Heavy oil is more challenging to produce than conventional lighter oils, but remains a marketable hydrocarbon with increasing demand world-wide, as other heavy oil resources have dropped offline. Interpretation of this play has continued and has seen material growth in the interpreted resources. The Company is conducting in depth evaluation of the economics of this play, with independent third party economic advisory support....'

So, my guess is that, if the report says the Tertiary play is commercial, then the next drill (and possibly only one in 2020) is a Jethro sidetrack; if the play is uncommercial, then a Cretaceous drill possibly this year.
Of course, it would be good if they did both, and in 2020.